Gold Mooning, Bonds Screaming, and Bitcoin Watching
396: Friday Market Wrap Up
Happy Friday guys — it’s been one hell of a week. Because of the success of last week’s Friday post, I figured we would run it back given the absurd amount of headlines and market moves this week. Today is a quick one as I am sure most of you need to get back to wrapping up the week and watching the Masters.
Risk On will be back next week — if you didn’t catch the last episode with Peter Tuchman of the NYSE make sure to check it out on Spotify — Peter has been live from the floor all week documenting the insane volatility we have been experiencing.
If you missed this week’s premium posts you can find them below — many of the names covered absolutely mooned this week.
Markets & Crypto
Markets are looking like they’re still tilting full risk-off mode after a historic escalation in trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The White House announced a sweeping 145% tariff on Chinese goods, prompting an immediate and aggressive 125% countermeasure from Beijing. The tit-for-tat action has shocked global markets, with major indices sliding and investors scrambling for safe havens.
The escalation has renewed fears of a policy-induced recession, stoking volatility across equities, yields, commodities, and currencies. Executives are warning about the ripple effects across supply chains, while economists are urging a return to the negotiating table before the damage becomes systemic — though Trump did pause tariffs on countries besides China for 90 days earlier this week leading to a face melting bounce.
Meanwhile, gold continues its unbelievable upward march hitting ATHs multiple times this week, and the Fed is back in the spotlight as markets look for reassurance — the pressure is certainly mounting on Jerome and company. Today the Financial Times reported that the Fed is "absolutely" ready to stabilize the market if needed likely owing to bond market action.
There’s a good amount of chatter on X and other platforms about the basis trade — TLDR: the basis trade is a leveraged arbitrage strategy involving long positions in U.S. Treasury bonds and short positions in futures contract. It's a strategy that typically profits from the price convergence between cash bonds and futures, but lately that convergence has gone the wrong way with implications for market players.
Instead of narrowing, the spread between cash Treasuries and futures has widened sharply in recent weeks amid the tariff chaos. That’s created losses for hedge funds running the trade with heavy leverage — in some cases, up to 20x. As the losses pile up, funds are being hit with margin calls, forcing them to unwind their positions rapidly.
This unwind isn't happening in a vacuum — it’s spilling into broader markets, pushing up yields and adding fuel to volatility across asset classes globally.
“I don’t know what you’re upset about the bond market. We have yields coming down.”
— Peter Navarro
US Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) fell to $100 today as of 12:30pm ET
Jim Cramer tweeted on X today “Rates go lower; market explodes”
BMW is considering boosting output in the U.S. amid President Trump’s trade negotiations (LeadingReport)
Palantir $PLTR, announced this week that it is creating a fellowship because "college is broken", they’ll be opening the program to high school students in the Fall
The country of Angola was hit with $200 million J.P. Morgan margin call as bonds in African countries fall (WhaleInsider)
India and US could finalize a part of the proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement amid the ongoing 90-day tariff pause announced by the Trump administration (IndiaTimes)
Worth touching on M2 money supply as well — which might be bullish for risk assets. The U.S. M2 money supply is ticking higher again, now sitting around $21.67 trillion — up nearly 4% from this time last year. That’s a meaningful shift from the contraction we saw through most of 2023, when the Fed was deep into its tightening cycle.
“This is the worst self-inflicted wound that I’ve ever seen an administration impose on a well-functioning economy"
—Former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen
Even with this rebound, M2 is still below its March 2022 peak, which means the liquidity environment isn’t back to post-COVID extremes — but it’s no longer in decline now either. It’s a measured uptick, and one that could have implications across markets, especially as investors try to game out the Fed’s next move and take advantage of any positive market news breaking in the coming days and weeks.
A rising money supply has historically been a tailwind for Bitcoin — and this latest move could be another early signal.
On the degenerate front the Gamestop saga is likely not over. Insiders have been putting in large purchases in the wake of the company announcing it may be purchasing Bitcoin. On top of that Unusual Whales reported strange option activity similar to the mania days of Gamestop when Roaring Kitty was apeing into calls — the buyer bought thousands of contracts with the following strikes: - $31 calls for May 16 - $32 calls for May 16 - $33 calls for May 16. Net call premiums are currently going wild.
News also broke this week of a filing for a 2x Leveraged ETF for GME.
Is GME 0.00%↑ about to announce a Bitcoin buy?
Crypto continues to chop a bit clearly looking for the green light to rebound with tariffs spreading uncertainty for risk on assets. Gold’s performance has been impressive, and many are looking to Bitcoin to see if it is going to play catch up as the DXY falls and investors flee for perceived safehavens.
The regulatory front continues to get better for crypto in 2025 with the recent signing of a bill to repeal the Crypto Broker Rule by President Trump, this makes the first crypto bill to be signed into law by a US President.
As far as our bags go Ethereum has slowed it’s dumping for now and PEPE continues to hold strong among meme coins. Chainlink which wasn’t spared from recent alt sell offs continues to boast an impressive track record of institution related adoption. The official X account this week recapped what’s taken place so far in 2025.
Chainlink in Q1 2025: • Launched Chainlink Smart Value Recapture (SVR) • Mainnet release of Payment Abstraction • CCIP adds 25 new chains • 77+ new Data Streams • Sergey speaks to U.S. President at White House Digital Asset Summit
Geopolitics & Global News
A devastating helicopter crash over the Hudson River claimed six lives on April 10, 2025. The victims included Agustín Escobar, an executive at Siemens, his wife Mercè Camprubí Montal, and their three children, aged 4, 8, and 10, all of whom were visiting New York from Spain. The pilot, a 36-year-old man, also died in the crash.
The aircraft—a Bell 206 operated by a local sightseeing tour company—took off from the Downtown Manhattan Heliport in the afternoon. About 18 minutes into the flight, witnesses reported strange noises and observed parts of the helicopter breaking apart mid-air before it flipped and plunged into the river near Pier 40.
Prayers for this family.
First responders quickly located the wreckage and recovered all six bodies from the river. Reports indicate the pilot had radioed in about needing fuel shortly before the incident, though the full cause remains under investigation. The FAA and NTSB are currently examining the crash, while local and international leaders have extended condolences to the victims' families.
The crash has left both the city and the international community shaken, as a family vacation turned into unimaginable tragedy in just minutes. Aviation tragedies seem to be a regular occurence these days — today a plane crashed in Boca Raton, Florida resulting in three deaths, according to local news reports and officials.
European Union leaders are set to travel to Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in July (BRICSNews)
A U.S. representative quietly met with Russian officials in Moscow to discuss the ongoing war in Ukraine. While no breakthroughs emerged, the dialogue signals continued behind-the-scenes diplomatic movement
The U.S. and Iran are set to resume negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program, though there’s still disagreement on the format of the upcoming talks. Both sides appear cautiously open to progress
Somali forces, backed by local fighters and U.S. air support, are intensifying their campaign against al-Shabaab militants in key central regions, aiming to reclaim territory and dismantle the group’s resource and manpower networks
North Korean troops briefly crossed the Demilitarized Zone this week, prompting warning shots from the South. While no casualties were reported, the incursion adds to mounting concerns over regional stability
While tensions at the moment with China are near all time highs economically as I wrap up this post we just got news from the White House that President Trump is open to making a deal with China. China is not only dealing with economic headhaches right now but also with a series of geopolitical and domestic issues as well. This week President Xi removed General He Weidong, the military’s second-highest-ranking officer and vice chair of the Central Military Commission. It’s the first time a sitting CMC vice chair has been dismissed in over 60 years — a major move that signals Xi is tightening control over the armed forces amid ongoing anti-corruption efforts.
Additionally tensions are flaring between China and the Philippines after both sides accused each other of recent acts of espionage. Several Chinese nationals were arrested for allegedly spying on key infrastructure in the Philippines, while China has detained a number of Filipinos in a mirrored response. The situation is adding to an already fragile security climate in the South China Sea.
On the financial front it seems backed into a corner at the moment — will be interesting to see what happens first — does the Federal Reserve step in? Or is some sort of deal struck with the US in the coming weeks?
Enjoy the weekend guys — Watch Review is slated to drop next week barring any urgent market updates and I will have another episode of Risk On by Thursday dropping.
Cheers
Andy
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Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before investing and ensure you have a good understanding of your personal risk tolerance.
Have to hope that the chopper crash with the Spanish CEO of Siemens wasn't a message.
US officials weren't happy with the Spain—China talks this week...