Afternoon all,
Timing a bit off for this third Arb Letter of the week but wanted to make sure I was able to cover the market’s reaction to Wednesday’s rate cuts.
We’ve got quite a bit to cover today and Arb Letter is back to #1 rising on the Substack crypto charts (which happens because people realize our track record is spot on).
The US is still seeing the social and political impacts of the murder of popular conservative commentator Charlie Kirk, huge crypto legislation is breaking through, the Federal Reserve just cut rates, and other news events are highlighting the growing social divide in the US.
*As a reminder if you didn’t get time to check this week’s paid posts out you can find them below:
Watch These Stocks & Assets Today
The Fed Pivot Meets America’s Breaking Point
Also, to those of you who keep asking how I get the Discord and other news updates as fast as I do.
JUST
If you follow me, over time your feed will adjust to my retweets, accounts I follow, etc. It is the fastest way to get breaking news as quickly as possible and a group of the single latest news source available besides being at an event yourself.
Markets
Pivotal week for markets with the Fed cutting 25bps. The move was pretty much telegraphed, but the follow-through seems telling. Equities ripped on the decision, with tech leading the charge and cyclicals catching a bid as traders leaned into a soft-landing narrative.
The dollar weakened further, credit spreads tightened, and rate-sensitive plays from housing to high-beta growth caught some fresh momentum. Meanwhile, commodities (as we said) like gold and copper surged on reflation bets, while crypto broke out alongside equities as liquidity expectations reset.
The takeaway here is pretty obvious. Powell just re-opened the liquidity taps, and markets are moving fast to price in a friendlier backdrop into year-end. It may take a few days or weeks for everyone to digest it, but the momentum very much appears to be on the bull’s side for now (key word).
INTC 0.00%↑ went absolutely bonkers on news of a $5B investment from NVDA 0.00%↑. The timing there on the heels of the Federal Governments stake in the name is uncanny lmao.
Overnight Japan sucked some of the air out of the US rally we saw on Thursday.
The BOJ kept its short-term rate steady at 0.5% but signaled a slow pivot away from ultra-easy policy. It announced plans to start trimming its massive balance sheet by selling ETFs (about ¥330B annually) and J-REITs (around ¥5B annually). Two board of their members pushed for a rate hike to 0.75%, highlighting growing hawkish voices, but in the end the majority held steady.
Core inflation came in at 2.7% year-on-year in August, still above the 2% target but easing off earlier highs.
The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 4%, in line with expectations.
Nvidia NVDA 0.00%↑ announced a plan to invest $5 billion in Intel INTC 0.00%↑ sending the sleepy stock into a parabolic rip yesterday
Foreign holdings of US Treasuries rose +$32 billion in July, to a record $9.16 trillion (Kobeissi Letter)
Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said this week there is 'no evidence' tariffs have caused inflation to rise (WatcherGuru)
41% of companies intend to layoff employees due to "AI" in the next 5 years (Kalshi)
Arb Letter picks and highlighted names BBAI 0.00%↑ NB 0.00%↑ SMCI 0.00%↑ and QUIK 0.00%↑ are doing pretty very well this week, even SWBI 0.00%↑ seems to be gaining some momentum from rate cuts.
If you guys are missing these plays, I would urge you to consider upgrading to Arb Letter premium where we’re talking about them in detail weekly along with the crypto picks.
It’s free money. It takes literally one of these plays to make 500x the annual subscription.
Oklo OKLO 0.00%↑ ripped higher this week, surging roughly 33% as momentum around nuclear and clean-energy plays picked up. The stock added another double-digit gain on Friday alone, fueled by heavy trading volume and enthusiasm around advanced reactor tech tied to the AI-energy demand boom.
QUBT 0.00%↑ is up big today, might be time to look into some Quantum Computing exposure as well.
Crypto
Alt season was picking up some solid steam this week on the heels of rate cuts until the Nikkei market action last night/this morning. Since then we’ve softened a bit. Bitcoin briefly lost momentum after failing to push through overhead resistance, but it’s still holding comfortably above key support.
Ethereum caught a bid on some renewed institutional chatter, though follow-through has been pretty choppy. Meanwhile, Avalanche and other L1s posted outsized fat daddy gains, with AVAX leading the pack on a near 20% weekly rip.
Meme coins saw another rotation higher midweek before giving back some froth, a reminder that risk appetite is alive but twitchy for most of retail.
Overall, the tone across crypto remains constructive, but global equity jitters showed just how sensitive the space still is to macro shocks, as highlighted earlier this morning by a decoupling between equities and blue chip crypto.
Again — patience. We are going much higher soon. You are being given additional days to get squared away and pick your horses for this race into year end and 2026.
Consensys’ Joseph Lubin confirmed this week a Metamask token is coming very soon, which could be huge if there’s an airdrop component for us long term users
MetaMask is set to launch in-wallet perpetuals trading through Hyperliquid (insane lmao)
MetaMask quietly rolled out a new stablecoin mUSD Stablecoin, which will be native to the wallet and likely play a role in the upcoming token and broader ecosystem strategy
Hyperliquid’s native token, HYPE, ripped to fresh all-time highs this week on rising volumes, new listings, and growing investor confidence in decentralized derivatives
Michael Saylor said this week Bitcoin will outperform the S&P 500 "forever" (Kalshi)
Sui was tapped as a launch partner for Google’s GOOG 0.00%↑ new Agentic Payments Protocol (AP2), a standard designed to let AI agents execute secure, programmable payments—putting Sui’s infrastructure at the center of fast, privacy-first rails for agent-driven finance
Grayscale launched the CoinDesk Crypto 5 ETF (GDLC) giving exposure to Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP and Cardano
Our alts are starting to print their first legs up on the rate cut news.
AVAX - +19.35% (in last week)
SOL - +34% (in last month)
NEAR - +15.57% (in last week)
HYPE - +37% (in last month)
ONDO - +14% (in last month)
I would argue Avalanche (AVAX) which I have been saying to buy for some time, is one of the most interesting pieces of this week’s market action. Avalanche (AVAX) ripped higher this week, gaining nearly 20% as it broke out of its summer range. I am actively buying more each day.
After grinding in the high-$20s, it finally punched through the stubborn $30–33 resistance band and is now holding in the mid-$30s. Macro tailwinds from the Fed’s rate cut helped fuel risk appetite across crypto in alt coins, and Avalanche stayed in headlines with talk of a $1B fundraising push by its foundation adding to speculation.
This is a hold through year end for me.
SUI is also looking ready for the next leg up, along with Hype.
At the time of finishing this edition of Arb Letter (11:50am ET), according to Coinglass data $100,000,000 in crypto longs have been liquidated in the last 60 minutes. More rinsing of weak hands and tourists before a potential leg higher.
The weekend price action will be super interesting as attention shifts from equity markets back to crypto.
Many on crypto twitter are calling for a top.
I know what I am doing if we dip this weekend and it’s not selling lol.
Global & US News
Trump and China’s leadership held a call this morning aimed at breaking the stalemate in relations. The headline item was TikTok, with both sides working toward a deal that would keep the app running in the U.S. through a transfer of assets and clarity around algorithm control.
The discussion also reportedly touched on tariffs, tech restrictions, and the possibility of a leaders’ summit as soon as next month. Beijing described the talks as positive, stressing the need to avoid new trade barriers, while Washington framed the call as a step toward stabilizing ties.
Xi apparently said “China will never forget the West’s aid during WWII”.
On the heels of a designation to make Antifa a domestic terror organization, it is rumored the FBI is reportedly preparing to label transgender individuals “violent extremists”
Americans are having a record low amount of sex, even less than during the pandemic. Get out there and clap some cheeks responsibly fellas! (WSJ) (Unusual Whales)
Chicago’s mayor said this week “Jails and law enforcement is a sickness that has not led to safe communities”
Russian fighter jets violated NATO airspace according to multiple reports
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is eyeing a presidential run in the US (Axios)
President Trump said Chinese President Xi Jinping has approved the recent TikTok deal
Police Shooting in Pennsylvania
A tragic scene unfolded in rural Pennsylvania this week when police attempted to serve an arrest warrant on a 24-year-old man facing multiple domestic-violence charges.
The suspect opened fire with a rifle as officers entered the home, killing three and critically wounding two more before being shot and killed himself.
Authorities said the warrant stemmed from stalking, trespassing, and prior incidents of harassment and arson targeting an ex-girlfriend. The ambush is being described as one of the deadliest attacks on law enforcement in the state’s recent history and underscores how quickly domestic cases can escalate into extreme violence.
Yet another testament to the highly volatile domestic environment in the US right now on the heels of the killing of conservative politician Charlie Kirk.
ICE Clashes
Outside the ICE processing facility in Broadview, Illinois, protests escalated this week as demonstrators attempted to blockade gates and stop detainee transport vehicles from leaving. The standoff lasted for hours, with federal agents ultimately deploying tear gas and sting balls to clear the crowd, who scattered quickly.
Several protesters were detained as tensions flared, reflecting a broader backlash to ICE’s stepped-up enforcement operations in the Chicago area. Unclear when the national guard may enter the picture as well.
Activists argue the agency’s tactics have spread fear across immigrant communities (which is kind of the point?), while officials are now facing mounting pressure over the use of heavy-handed crowd control measures. Lunacy lol.
Lines Keep Being Drawn
In the wake of the assassination of Charlie Kirk, alongside a wave of conspiracy theories, new tension and division continues to erupt across the US Vigils and rallies have been met with online vitriol, exposing just how fractured the political landscape has become.
Antifa has come under renewed scrutiny after clashes with police and right-leaning demonstrators in several cities, with Donald Trump now formally labeling them a domestic terror organization.
Overseas, the Netherlands became the first European nation to officially proscribe Antifa, while Hungary is reportedly preparing similar action. European leaders cited concerns that Antifa-linked groups were actively coordinating unrest beyond U.S. borders.
This designation in the U.S. is being framed as a major escalation, even though many argue it was long overdue and should have been enacted during the chaos of 2020. Back then, Antifa served as a convenient tool during the Marxist protests and social movements that defined the pandemic years, giving political cover to unrest that has since only metastasized.
The current crackdown suggests governments on both sides of the Atlantic now view the group less as a loose protest network and more as a destabilizing militant force that condones the use of violence.
Antifa showed up to attempt to shut down the Charlie Kirk memorial at the Boston Common
58 Democrats voted against a resolution to honor Charlie Kirk’s life
Jimmy Kimmel’s late-night show has been suspended indefinitely by ABC after his remarks about the reaction to Charlie Kirk’s assassination sparked backlash from network affiliates, conservative media groups, and the FCC chair. The move has triggered widespread debate over free speech, media regulation, and political influence on broadcasts
BLM protestors in New York took to the streets, with one chanting "F*ck Charlie Kirk, spit on yo grave"
"We should be clear about who Charlie Kirk was ... his rhetoric & beliefs were ignorant, uneducated, & sought to disenfranchise millions of Americans."
-AOC
The take down of Kimmel has ignited debates on freedom of speech and censorship from the left, which is ironic considering what took place over the last 5 years when big tech was working hand in hand with federal agencies to alter the outcome of the 2020 election, censor Covid, and stifle alternative political influencers, companies, and outlets.
This week we learned the FBI's "Operation Arctic Frost", launched in 2022 targeted 92 conservative groups and individuals in Soviet style inquisitions. Most of us who were called schizos and conspiracy theorists for years already knew this, but now the documents have dropped proving it.
It’s why the trope of calling the right “fascists” endlessly is so entertaining. They are calling you what THEY actually are.
Don’t get it twisted for a second lol despite the endless gaslighting. The right isn’t celebrating the murder of people. The right didn’t weaponize the federal government to mass target political opposition.
I’d say there’s a difference between blatantly celebrating violence and murder (and in Kimmel’s case intentionally LYING about what happened to millions) and merely being censored for differing political views. It also likely was a business decision on the part of ABC as well.
People can say anything they want, but when you’re openly advocating for murder and violence that’s when you start to approach a thin line. The free speech argument is not lost on me, but I think right now many are finding it hard to differentiate between the two.
It should not be forgotten that the left was the first side to use suppression, censorship, and de-platforming at scale for years. Now that the tables have turned it’s their rallying cry.
As I said before — the REACTION to Kirk’s murder is the super telling thing here. You can expect this social division to continue to ramp up and I wouldn’t be surprised if the protests and riots come back in full effect soon as well.
See you guys on Tuesday morning for a comprehensive look at alt coins. Where to buy them, which ones I am continuing to add (and why), as well as where the biggest wallets are allocating for October.
Speak soon - enjoy the weekend kings. Don’t forget to grab free crypto below with Gemini when you sign up for an account and trade $500 (weekend is best time to knock this out before the work week).
Andy
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Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before
I’ve been DCAing OKLO since the beginning of the year 😀