Nothing Is Clear, Everything Is Moving

The Fog of War, Frothy Markets, and Crypto’s Quiet March Forward

Afternoon lords.

Hope the week is going well for you guys so far.

One of the biggest pieces of feedback we are getting YTD has been that some folks have time constraints, which in turn leads to them unsubscribing.

Hate to see that given the value I know this publication has for people, so I want to propose something and take a quick poll for those interested.

The typical publishing cadence is paid posts Tuesday, free updates Thursday. If you are open to the idea of me providing a super condensed third post on Saturday mornings, let me know.

It would be succint and essentially review the past week’s content as well as major updates to round off the week (hyperlinks). It wouldn’t be completely bare bones per se, but would be much shorter and brief than our deep dives or full reviews. And we could always test it.

Let me know below.

If you missed our Tuesday paid guide (went out around 8am ET) make sure to check it out. It is a revised and refreshed guide to approaching the world in 2026, complete with strategies that have worked for me across multiple disciplines. If you are on the fence check it out, it is a top read post of 2026 already and is a god compass for your financial, social, and physical goals this year.

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Markets

Bit of a frustrating week for some of our plays. ONDS 0.00%↑ had some super bullish updates but failed to pop over $12. I am still long and strong an do believe that it will take a bit longer for the narrative to play out, particularly the work they are doing in counter drone technology. KTOS 0.00%↑ is in a nice little pocket if you didn’t get some exposure over the past few months and so is BBAI 0.00%↑ although I wouldn’t blame folks if they want to cut and move on from that name.

The PLTR 0.00%↑ and Anduril relationship seems to continue to become more incestuous as well.

AMD 0.00%↑ is on a ripper up 32% in the past 6 months and I am not surprised to see SMCI 0.00%↑ pop off bottom either. I like MSFT 0.00%↑ here.

We will talk about it in a moment in the global news section but the big Y in the road right now generally speaking, is if you think the US is going to put boots on the ground in Iran.

If it happens, I think it is going to come soon (before April 15th) and maybe as early as next week or this weekend. Polymarket odds do not look good for us, with a nearly 62% chance we enter the country by the end of April.

“Not sure if we are willing to make a deal with Iran.”

— President Trump

That is the “hurdle” short term for us that we need to resolve or put behind us.

One of the more bizarre pockets of the market right now is the explosion in VCX 0.00%↑, a newly listed public venture fund that effectively gives retail investors exposure to some of the most sought after private tech companies in the world.

At its core, VCX is a publicly traded venture capital vehicle. Instead of buying individual stocks, investors are buying into a basket of late-stage private companies with turbo autists names like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX. These assets that have previously been locked behind institutional gates.

Since its debut in March, VCX has gone turbo vertical lol, at one point ripping over 1,000% from its initial listing price, briefly trading near $575 intraday before pulling back. The move has been driven less by fundamentals and more by retail demand for AI exposure and that juicy pre IPO speculation, with investors effectively front running potential listings in the private tech ecosystem.

But the reality is the fund has traded at massive premiums to its underlying net asset value, meaning buyers aren’t just paying for exposure, they’re paying a steep markup for the narrative itself. Too frothy for me right now but definitely an interesting watch.

Might already be in its rug pull era, down 30% today lol.

• The US Postal Service is set to impose 8% surcharge on packages to cover rising fuel costs

• 61% of Americans 18–34 hold negative views of AI (Gemini)

• The Iran War will fuel a surge in US inflation to 4.2% this year, the highest in the G7, according to a newly released OECD forecast (Kobeissi Letter)

• META 0.00%↑ is down almost 6% as of 11am ET

• OpenAI has put their erotic chatbot plans on hold ‘indefinitely’ (Financial Times)

• Google GOOG 0.00%↑ launched Gemini 3.1 Flash Live, a new voice model for Gemini Live designed to deliver faster, more natural conversations with fewer pauses and real-time tone adjustment (Polymarket Money).

• The Chicago Fed Real-Time Unemployment Rate Forecast for March is 4.46%, up slightly from the BLS value for the previous month (Chicago Fed)

Crypto

This morning Fannie Mae signaled a notable shift in how crypto could factor into the U.S. housing market. Things are looking up kings!

In updated guidance, the agency has indicated that lenders may begin considering certain cryptocurrency holdings as part of a borrower’s financial profile, without requiring full liquidation into cash beforehand, depending on custody and some documentation standards.

Historically, crypto had to be converted into USD and seasoned in an account before being counted toward reserves. This change likely opens the door for digital assets to be treated more like traditional financial holdings, at least in principle.

Now look this move doesn’t mean widespread adoption overnight but it’s definitely another step toward integrating crypto into core financial infrastructure.

For some borrowers who might be digital coin size lords, it could expand access to credit. For markets it’s a quiet but meaningful signal digital assets are inching closer to institutional normalization (and normalization in everyday society).

• Coinbase COIN 0.00%↑ has partnered with Better Mortgage to launch crypto-backed home loans

• Tom Lee's BitMine bought another 67,110 ETH worth $144 million yesterday (Real World Asset Watchlist)

• Ondo Finance is partnering with Franklin Templeton to bring tokenized ETFs on-chain with 24/7 trading (CoinMarketCap)

• A big options expiry is coming up for crypto, with roughly $18B+ in crypto derivatives rolling off

Outside of the geopolitical noise and broader market volatility, there have been a few meaningful developments in crypto this week that are worth paying attention to.

On the regulatory front, the tone continues to shift. U.S. regulators are increasingly leaning toward classifying many major tokens as digital commodities rather than securities, removing most of the major overhangs that has weighed on the space for years.

There’s also been more visible coordination between agencies which should suggest a move toward a more unified and workable framework.

At the same time, tokenization (I bolded this for a reason guys! pay attention) continues to push forward behind the scenes. Traditional market infrastructure is slowly being adapted to support blockchain based trading of financial assets, signaling that the long-term integration between crypto and legacy finance is still very much underway.

The bottom line is this: price action may be ass right now but institutionally, the momentum hasn’t slowed. New products tied to Ethereum are continuing to roll out, including structures that allow for staking yield to be wrapped into traditional investment vehicles.

That’s a meaningful step we need to zoom out and appreciate. It starts to position crypto not just as a degen speculative asset, but as something that can generate yield within familiar frameworks.

Be patient kings.

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Global News & Geopolitics

It’s pretty unclear what the latest news is in regards to the conflict in Iran. There are constant mixed headlines and messages popping up online and it almost changes by the hour. There’s also a lot of he said she said going on between the US and Iran. The US says they want talks, then Iran says they were never approached for talks, etc. etc.

Recent reports indicate the US is actively considering a “final blow,” potentially involving ground troops and large scale bombings in Iran according to Axios (Unusual Whales).

Air strikes are still active and Iran is moving to bolster Kharg Island. Kharg, for context, is not just another target on the map. It is the critical export artery for Iranian oil, handling the overwhelming majority of the country’s crude shipments. Any serious disruption there would immediately ripple through global energy markets, tightening supply and injecting even more volatility into an already sketchy macro backdrop.

The Pentagon also recently announced that the U.S. Army is raising its maximum enlistment age from 35 to 42 and also loosening restrictions around prior marijuana offenses. Kind of seems like they are preparing for something big.

Below you can see an insane video of a US Navy F-18 narrowly dodging an Iranian MANPADS missile yesterday.

• An 83-year-old veteran was randomly shoved onto NYC subway tracks by an illegal immigrant and died from his injuries

• The Pentagon has estimated only 23% of young Americans (17-24) are eligible to serve in US military mainly due to poor academic performance on testing, obesity, and criminal records (ABC)

• Various reports indicate over one million Iranian fighters have been prepared for a possible ground war with the United States (BRICs News)

• The Olympics have banned ‘Transgender’ women from competing (InsiderWire)

• Iran's IRGC has lowered the minimum age for war-related support roles to 12 years old (BRICs News)

• In most of the most upsetting stories of the last several years a gang-rape victim, Noelia Castillo Ramos who is 25, is now set to die by euthanasia in Spain after jumping off a roof in suicide attempt that left her paralyzed. She was in a state-supervised centre for vulnerable youth in 2022 when she was gang-raped by three men (BBC).

For now we wait to see if there are any escalations in the Middle East in the coming days.

My suggestion? Go outside. Go workout. Do something productive that gets you away from doomscrolling and watching your portfolio constantly.

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Shorter one today guys.

Have a great end to the week. Based on the results of the polls maybe we will run a test post on Saturday morning. Next week we dive into a refresher on making money online.

See you guys on X and the Discord chat.

Andy