Markets Tank On JPOW Comments
398: Blackrock Buying Bitcoin, China Trade War, NVIDIA Sell Off
Good afternoon,
Hope the week is going well — Nasdaq and other indices look like shit today which sucks but we’ll survive.
If you missed the 2025 Arbitrage Andy Watch Review you can find it linked below. I talk through new watch releases in 2025 and go over some of the fabled classics that businessmen, financiers, entrepreneurs, and more have cherished for years.
2025 Arbitrage Andy Watch Guide
As far as the schedule for the rest of the week: we have the markets update today, an Episode of Risk On tomorrow morning, and likely another post Friday morning to round up the week.
In Risk On I plan to dive into a topic I have waited to cover until the facts come out — the murder of Austin Metcalf by Karmelo Anthony. Developments coming out on this incident are truly disgusting and highlight an issue that persists in this country that we will expand on in Risk On. This particular case has implications for politics, society, and culture in the United States and I feel it would be a bad look to ignore it, if trends like these continue I suspect we will begin to see social unrest in the coming years that dwarves the peak years of Covid and BLM/Antifa.
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Markets
Tariff headwinds continue to weigh on global markets this week.
Our beloved Nvidia NVDA 0.00%↑ took a major hit this week after the U.S. imposed new export restrictions on its H20 AI chips, which were initially designed to comply with earlier rules but are now blocked from being sold to China. The company warned of a potential $5.5 billion revenue loss and responded by announcing plans to ramp up domestic production in the US, with new facilities coming to Arizona and Texas.
Nvidia’s H20 chips made up a major chunk of its business in China, generating an estimated $12–15 billion in sales last year. With China accounting for roughly 13% of the company’s total revenue, the H20 alone played a key role in Nvidia’s performance in the region and has become a focal point in the ongoing U.S.-China tech standoff.
The stock has dropped over 6%, erasing more than $160 billion in market value, and dragging down other chipmakers like AMD 0.00%↑ and AVGO 0.00%↑. (I am buying more today btw).
While semiconductors are temporarily exempt from the latest round of tariffs, the Trump administration has hinted at upcoming tech-focused levies, adding even more pressure to the sector and broader market.
The US announced a 245% tariff on China this week
Senator Josh Hawley is set to reintroduce a bill that will ban Congress from trading stocks (or insider trading)
Roughly 60% of Coachella attendees have financed their tickets with BNPL type plans to attend the festival, according to data from Billboard
Over 21,000 IRS agents have reportedly accepted the Trump administration’s recent offer for resignation (NYT)
Gold has hit a new all time high above $3,325
ComputerShare took to X to release details of internal issues this week - "We are currently experiencing issues with customer access to some of our sites in North America due to a technical issue”
China’s GDP reportedly grew 5.4% in Q1 of 2025, exceeding many expectations
United States has generated a total of $21 billion in tariff revenue since President Trump took office (WatcherGuru)
Trump has kicked off trade talks with Japan as part of a broader push to renegotiate key economic relationships. The meetings in Washington include top U.S. officials like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, along with Japan’s Economic Revitalization Minister. These talks follow Trump’s recent tariff announcement on April 2, which included a 24% tariff on Japanese imports. While the harshest measures have been delayed for 90 days, a 10% general tariff and a 25% duty on Japanese cars and steel are already in place.
Japan is pushing back, hoping to avoid further concessions and protect its economic interests at home and abroad. The discussions also touch on military cost-sharing and trade imbalances, and could shape how the U.S. approaches other trade negotiations in the coming days and months.
One of the end goals of the Trump Administration’s tariff efforts appears to be an effort to isolate China more and more in the world economy.
“The ball is in China's court. China needs to make a deal with us; we don't have to make a deal with them.”
— White House Press Briefing
The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that “U.S. officials plan to use negotiations with more than 70 nations to ask them to disallow China to ship goods through their countries, prevent Chinese firms from locating in their territories to avoid U.S. tariffs, and not absorb China’s industrial goods”.
China announced today they are moving away from the US and to Canada for more oil highlighting the global shift as nations pick sides in this ongoing trade war.
For what it’s worth I doubt China is going to come to the negotiating table first, so it likely lies on the Trump admin to make the first solid offer to settle things in the short term.
While the major question mark on the tariff front is China, US Federal Reserve policy will be the other major lever on where markets decide to move next (and so far it’s south) — it seems Jerome Powell is remaining stubborn in his decision to wait for more clarity while Trump calls for rate cuts. Fed Chair Powell spoke live on policy to the Economic Club of Chicago today. In addition to saying tariffs likely mean higher inflation and slower growth Powell had the following to say:
“Despite heightened uncertainty and downside risks, the US Economy is still in a solid position.”
“Tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, the inflationary effects could be more persistent, avoiding that outcome will depend on the size of these effects….. unemployment is likely to go up as the economy slows”
Powell also said US Federal debt is "not at an unsustainable level” which of course is a wild thing to say — US federal debt is over $30 Trillion lol. The political undertones of Fed policy have never been more obvious than now. Inflation was always supposed to be transitory according to Powell — so what happened?
While it remains to be seen whether Trump has the ability to remove Jerome Powell, I see the chances of this happening growing the longer he doesn’t fall in line. Not to say he should — just pointing out, the longer he defies Trump and the administration, the more pressure is likely to mount.
Crypto
Despite everything going on Bitcoin is trading around $85,000 today (since down to $84,000ish due to JPOW’s speech). While alts and meme coins are in their typical low range during a broader sell off, this relative strength is not going unnoticed as gold also climbs to all time highs.
Global adoption of crypto, whether it’s to circumnavigate tariffs or US dollar usage is growing along with the adoption of stablecoins and integration into traditional payment systems.
China is debating how to handle digital assets seized in criminal cases. Options being considered include a centralized agency or even a state-run crypto fund
Russia’s Finance Ministry has called to create its own crypto stablecoin
New U.S. tax rules now require reporting on digital transactions through platforms like Venmo, PayPal, and crypto wallets. The IRS is tightening oversight to track income more accurately while having headcount reduced by the Trump administration
Raydium has unveiled LaunchLab, a direct rival to the meme coin platform PumpFun (Cointelegraph)
The Panama City council has voted in favor of accepting payments in Bitcoin and crypto (Bitcoinmagazine)
Brazilian fintech firm Meliuz is moving to include bitcoin as a core part of its treasury strategy. A vote will be held in early May to make it official
A private school in Scotland just became the first in the UK to accept bitcoin for tuition. The school says it will convert the crypto to pounds and sees it as a way to reduce currency risk for international families
Despite the chaos big players are making moves in this recent down trend. Arkham Intelligence has reported this morning that Blackrock has purchased another $13M of Bitcoin in the last 24 hours.
According to wallet/on chain intelligence company, this marks the second consecutive day of purchases now totaling over $50,000,000.
BlackRock wasn’t alone—over 48,000 Bitcoin, worth roughly $3.6 billion, moved into long-term holding wallets, a sign that smart money is positioning for higher prices and is willing to outlast short term fuckery.
In Europe, BlackRock launched its first crypto-backed ETP, expanding regulated exposure to Bitcoin across borders. Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate confirmed rich homie Paul Atkins as SEC Chair, a notable win for the industry given his crypto-friendly stance which should contribute to positive tailwinds on the regulatory front.
World Liberty Financial, with ties to the Trump family, launched a new stablecoin called USD1, adding fuel to the crypto narrative in Washington and the spread of stablecoin narratives in the industry.
To top it off — while equities are hating JPOW’s diction and rhetoric today he did cap off the afternoon by saying that there should be some loosening of banking and crypto regulations to come.
Send it sir.
Trade/Market Updates
Not much has changed in my personal approach to this market regime — I am still DCAing into quality tech names, and as I mentioned earlier will gladly add semis like NVDA 0.00%↑ AMD 0.00%↑ and AVGO 0.00%↑ at reduced prices this week. If we see another red day tomorrow or Friday I will likely throw a few more buy orders at QQQ 0.00%↑ and SPY 0.00%↑ for the long term.
Crypto wise the only thing I am adding right now is Ethereum, though I stopped this week with the small recovery we saw, I continue to add small clips of $PEPE as well given it’s strength against most meme coins besides Fartcoin which I had too much dignity to get involved in. Another dump below $80,000 for Bitcoin and I become a spot buyer again.
Times like these I generally spend less time obsessing over my portfolio and more time working or getting out of the house. The back and froth BS on tariffs will pass eventually but for now the hyper emotional crowd is getting caught up in every little update, tweet, or headline. Wasted energy in my opinion.
I mentioned it last week — Donald Trump’s ego is simply too large for him to leave behind a legacy of recession or depression — my guess is we will see some major updates on tariffs sooner rather than later and markets will react well to this information.
See you guys on Risk On tomorrow.
Andy
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Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before investing and ensure you have a good understanding of your personal risk tolerance.