India vs. Pakistan, Crypto Gem to Watch
401: The Powder Keg at the Edge of Asia
Good morning — I don’t know about where you guys live but where I am it is a glorious day. 75 and sunny, spring in full effect, green foliage, and the worst of cold weather is gone. I just inhaled a monster cold brew + espresso shot and engaged my first upper decky of the day.
Cooking on all cylinders. Make sure you guys check out the new summer T Shirts in the Arbitrage Andy shop — the Mogadishu Yacht Club is currently our best seller.
Things are looking up it seems, the market appears to be skeptical of tariffs continuing much longer at least from today’s market action, we’ve got a new Predator movie in the works, and Bethesda just dropped a full remaster of Oblivion for PC, PS5, and Xbox Series X/S — rebuilt in Unreal Engine 5 with upgraded visuals and updated mechanics.
Personally I am going to keep dropping into Verdansk with the fellas but for the RPG/Fantasy cult this is a much welcomed drop given Bethesda has been teasing a new Skyrim for years.
On the media topic — Ryan Coogler’s new film “Sinners” is outperforming almost every single horror movie from the last 10 years, reportedly earning $71M domestically already and on track to quickly surpass a sizeable $100M. Looks lit need to see it.
For premium subs — Tuesday I will be dropping a guide on College in 2025 and beyond — examining my personal journey and experience as a D1 Athlete at a top 10 university, the payoffs, downsides, and the changing value proposition that college offers. I will throw in some good stories from my college days, my takes on what certain degrees can do for you, and why my opinion has changed on what I will probably encourage my son to do in the future given what I now know.
Markets
Global markets are moving cautiously this today as investors weigh mixed signals from the U.S. on tariffs and monetary policy. Asia saw a split tape with Japan pushing higher while Hong Kong lagged. Europe is mostly flat with Us indices up on the day and tech enjoying a nice bump right now. Right as I was about to hit send on this edition of Arb Letter news broke that Trump is saying he had a meeting with China this morning, markets are beginning to surge on that news.
I added more AMD 0.00%↑ and AVGO 0.00%↑ yesterday.
The dollar $DXY remains under pressure, and gold/Bitcoin continue to surge, approaching record highs as traders continue to seek shelter in safe havens. Sentiment feels shaky but slightly optimistic, and positioning remains defensive while everyone waits for the next shoe to drop.
“America is a brand and we are eroding that brand"
—Ken Griffin of Citadel
According to data from Bank of America - fund managers haven't been this bearish on US assets in almost 30 years
CME Group to launch XRP futures trading on May 19, 2025 (WatcherGuru)
Tether has crossed a 10% stake in Juventus Football Club and becomes significant shareholder (WhaleInsider)
Jane Street trading revenues nearly doubled in 2024 to more than $20bn (Financial Times)
New Hampshire Bitcoin Reserve bill HB302 has passed the Senate committee with a 4-1 vote (CoinTelegraph)
Jason Citron has stepped down as the CEO of Discord
Jack in the Box has announced a strategic closure program targeting the shutdown of 150 to 200 underperforming locations (MacroEdge)
IBM (IBM) dropped more than 7% even after beating recent earnings. Management flagged softening customer demand, which they say has spooked investors worried about a slowdown
Procter & Gamble (PG) sank 5% after cutting its full-year forecast. Consumer spending weakness and tariff-related costs are starting to make an impact on the company
Crypto is holding strong this morning — Bitcoin is trading around $93,400, Thereum is just below $1,800, Solana is ranging around $150, and Chainlink is just below $15.
Bitcoin ETFs bought over $917,000,000 in Bitcoin just yesterday.
One of the advantages I have being online all the time is I start to see swell or hype on new projects from an attention and content standpoint — one of the projects that is undoubtedly getting more and more hype is $SUI.
SUI is quietly building firepower. Developed by Mysten Labs (ex-Meta engineers), it's a next-gen Layer 1 blockchain that uses a novel object-based architecture rather than account-based like Ethereum. In plain speak that essentially means blazing-fast speeds, low fees, and parallel transaction processing — perfect for gaming, NFTs, and anything that needs to employ serious scale.
It’s backed by well known heavy hitters like a16z and Binance Labs, but still flies under the radar compared to Solana and Avalanche. The tech is real, dev activity is growing quickly, and it's already gaining traction among builders thanks to its Move-based smart contracts (which was originally created at Facebook).
If crypto pumps again and altcoin rotation kicks off, SUI could be one of those L1s that catches people flat-footed — the infrastructure’s already there, it just needs liquidity and hype.
Hidden gem vibes. Probably good to keep your eye on it.
It seems we are getting a complete 180 on tariff policy as it pertains to China every hour of the day. It’s quite literally back and forth — we get an update or headline, then an hour later the White House contradicts the statement or claim.
There’s also the question of insider trading which seems to be a growing trend based on options flow ahead of these “announcements”. We’ve seen several instances where major purchases are made hours before announcements that end up sending the market vertical. These are likely short term trades as volatility is still high and the market is whipsawing, but if I had to bet I would say it is Trump adjacent officials partaking, possibly even officials within the administration itself.
Today Charles Gasparino of FOX said the following:
"Wall street executives are finding out that a trade deal between India and US is close."
As Unusual Whales pointed out on X this morning there was a large purchase of SPY Call Options before this news broke, they are up 100%+ today as the market rallies higher.
As I said in yesterday’s post, I am not convinced this trade war is going to be long lived, wouldn’t surprise me if positive news that sticks is going to break soon.
That being said according to recent data retail investors are absolutely buying the ever living shit out of this dip, so take that as you may. Are the sheep being led to slaughter or is the economic situation so out of control at this point it nobody cares?
Geopolitics & Global News
As if the conflict in Ukraine wasn’t enough we now have a growing potential conflict between India and Pakistan.
Tensions between India and Pakistan are heating up again after a deadly attack in Kashmir that left 26 people dead—mostly Indian tourists.
Indian officials are pointing the finger at Pakistan-based militants and say two of the attackers are linked to Lashkar-e-Tayyaba. In response, India has started to pull diplomatic privileges, suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, and stepped up its pressure campaign.
"Pakistan will bomb any Indian installation that will stop the flow of water in Indus river."
Pakistan has fired back by closing its airspace to Indian planes, canceling visas, and warning that any interference with river flows would be considered an act of war. The whole thing feels like a replay of the 2019 Kashmir standoff—only this time the stakes are even higher. According to Visegrad 24 — India’s aircraft carrier INS Vikrant has left its port and is heading toward Pakistan.
Polymarket has a 55% chance of Indian military against Pakistan before June.
India and Pakistan are both nuclear-armed rivals with over 160 warheads each, making their long-standing tensions—especially over Kashmir—uniquely dangerous in the event of escalation.
While the risk of a nuclear exchange between the countries is low — it’s not zero and this adds even more macro uncertainty as the war in Ukraine continues to grind on unsolved. The 2001 Indian Parliament attack and the 2019 Pulwama-Balakot airstrikes almost escalated into war between the two countries.
Pakistan has a first-use doctrine when it comes to nukes, while India has a no-first-use policy—but both have become more flexible over time, recent events are making this much sketchier.
European Parliament is in the 'final stages' of talks with China to remove sanctions (BRICSNews)
Germany is expecting zero GDP growth in 2025 blaming the impacts of tariffs (InsiderPaper)
The US House GOP is aiming for a $150 billion Pentagon spending increase according to a report by Politico
China and Kenya just stepped up their diplomatic game, rolling out a deeper partnership amid rising global uncertainty — another reminder that Beijing isn’t slowing down its Africa strategy anytime soon
Global energy leaders are gathered in London this week for high-level talks focused on energy security, pushing for more resilient supply chains
South Korea’s economic outlook took a hit as Fitch trimmed its 2025 growth forecast
Next week we have an interview for Risk On dropping with founder of Wall Street Oasis, Patrick Curtis. Though many of you are probably familiar Wall Street Oasis (WSO) is a leading online community and career resource for finance professionals and aspiring candidates, offering forums, training programs, and tools to navigate careers in investment banking, private equity, and related fields.
The company has been making large leaps into their coaching, curriculum, and academy offerings that help individuals land jobs on Wall Street.
Patrick and I will be discussing the recruiting landscape, trends he is seeing in the market, and how they are working to help place individuals at a wide range of financial institutions.
See you guys next week and enjoy your weekend.
Andy
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Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before investing and ensure you have a good understanding of your personal risk tolerance.
Anyone apeing chill guy or wif?
Thanks for the consistent flux of market updates Andy, always appreciated.