Ethereum Coiled, Inflation Persistent

374: Crypto Update, European Geopolitics, Earnings

Morning all,

Happy Thursday. Welcome to all the new subs (500+ since last Monday).

Comprehensive update today on markets and global news. Episode 21 of Risk On is live on Spotify and linked above — while it’s a shorter episode (around 40 minutes) I delve into the opportunity presented with Ethereum, the institutions buying it, a summary of USAID scandals, and more.

Today we’ve got some layoff updates, equity reviews, and crypto developments to cover along with some major global news related to Ukraine and Europe.

---

Markets & Crypto

Yesterday the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% from the previous month, leading to a 3.0% increase over the past year. This uptick was primarily driven by higher costs in housing, food (eggs lmao), and gasoline. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, went up by 0.4% monthly and 3.3% annually.

These figures surpassed economists' expectations, who had anticipated a 0.3% monthly rise for both overall and core CPI. The unexpected inflation surge has prompted concerns that the Federal Reserve may maintain elevated interest rates longer than previously anticipated.

Following the report, financial markets reacted with declines in major stock indices and increases in Treasury yields. Additionally, the U.S. dollar strengthened against other currencies. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that while progress has been made, the goal of reducing inflation to the 2% target has not yet been achieved. He emphasized the importance of keeping monetary policy restrictive for the time being. Another saga in the inflation is “transitory” story.

"We have made great progress on inflation, but we're not quite there yet."

— Jerome Powell

If you missed our paid post yesterday on top stocks, crypto, and assets to hold in 2025 — you can find it below. It is a follow up to our 2024 guide.

Top Assets to Hold in 2025

Bear in mind if conditions continue to shift in the US we will likely amend and update this, though I am actively adding most of the names covered.

Earnings

Several notable companies are scheduled to report their earnings today including:

• Brookfield Corporation (BN)

• Duke Energy Corporation (DUK)

• PG&E Corporation

• Coinbase Global, Inc (one of our calls from 2024)

• DoorDash, Inc.

• DraftKings Inc. (DKNG

• Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB)

• Roku, Inc.

• CBRE Group, Inc.

• Twilio Inc. (TWLO)

Gold

Gold has recently reached unprecedented levels, with prices approaching $3,000 per ounce—a surge of over 10% since the start of 2025. This rise is driven by economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and significant purchases by central banks aiming to diversify their reserves.

The U.S. futures market, the London OTC market, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange are pivotal in global gold trading, collectively accounting for over 90% of trading volumes. Despite the current bullish trend, some analysts caution that high prices may dampen jewelry demand and potentially lead to reduced purchases by central banks, especially if domestic currencies weaken.

There are growing signs of a tightening physical gold supply. A large movement of gold from London to New York has created shortages in London, with traders accumulating significant stockpiles in the U.S. amid concerns over potential tariffs. As a result, withdrawal times from key vaults have extended considerably.

China

In recent weeks, China's equity markets have experienced a few notable developments. Authorities have mandated that mutual funds increase their A-share holdings by at least 10% annually over the next three years, and state-owned insurers are now required to invest 30% of their annual new premium revenue into the stock market. Despite these measures, the CSI 300 Index, which tracks major companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen, have seen slight declines of approximately 0.16% since the beginning of 2025.

However, certain sectors are showing significant growth and attracting hungry hedge funds. The Hang Seng Tech Index has risen more than 25% in the past month, driven by investor enthusiasm following DeepSeek's development of a cost-effective AI model (which temporarily ruined our bags).

This surge has led to a revaluation of Chinese tech companies, with Alibaba's BABA 0.00%↑ shares increasing by 35%. Other companies, such as Xiaomi and Baidu, have also experienced substantial gains. Additionally, electric vehicle manufacturer BYD has seen significant sales and revenue growth, surpassing Tesla TSLA 0.00%↑ in revenue for the first time.

Headlines

• Deloitte US has asked employees working on government contracts to remove gender pronouns from their email signatures and ditched its wider diversity and inclusion programmes, per Bloomberg

• Crypto․com has recently received regulatory approval to provide crypto services to all European Economic Area (EEA) member states.

• Fed Chair Jerome Powell has said the Federal Reserve will not block banks from serving legal crypto or Bitcoin customers

• JPMorgan Chase's managers have started notifying employees of job cuts as part of a series of layoffs the bank plans to make throughout 2025 — these cuts will occur in February, March, May, June, August, and September (MacroEdge)

• Chevron CVX 0.00%↑ is set to cut 20% of its employees (Unusual Whales)

• BlackRock currently holds $56.1B of BTC and $3.5B of ETH according Arkham Intel

• Coinbase Derivatives is poised to launch Solana $SOL futures soon

• President Trump is reportedly planning to appoint a16z’s Head of Policy Brian Quintenz as the CFTC chair, according to a release by Bloomberg (CoinTelegraph)

• Saba Capital Management, led by Boaz Weinstein, has ramped up its activist efforts against UK investment trusts, pushing for several funds to transition from closed-ended to open-ended structures to improve investor flexibility.

• Octopus Energy has joined a consortium in a bid to acquire Thames Water, aiming to take over customer management, improve financial stability, and potentially restructure the company.

• BP is preparing a strategic overhaul under CEO Murray Auchincloss, shifting focus back to oil and gas projects while scaling back some green initiatives in response to evolving geopolitical and profitability pressures.

• Hedge funds have been increasing their exposure to Chinese stocks, with a surge in interest driven by the rapid rise of domestic AI startups.

• Robert Bonte-Friedheim, a former senior portfolio manager at Millennium Management, is launching Scarlet Macaw Capital, a new equity hedge fund with an initial $200 million focused on emerging markets like Turkey and South Africa.

• Charles Schwab is now allowing 24-hour trading to all retail clients like Robinhood

Crypto

Over the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has seen mixed movements, with total market capitalization edging slightly higher. Bitcoin has risen nearly 2%, trading around $97,000, while Ethereum has gained close to 3%, hovering near $2,670.

Among major altcoins, BNB saw a strong rally of over 10%, while XRP and Cardano recorded moderate gains. Dogecoin climbed nearly 4%, whereas Solana dipped by about 1.5%. Other assets like Polygon and Polkadot posted solid increases, while Litecoin also moved higher.

Crypto has been in a decent chop phase. The obvious takeaway is that Bitcoin remains elevated over $90,000 while alts continue to bleed and the meme coin trenches remain unpredictable with new debacles including Dave Portnoy and others. As usual a look at Arkham or other wallet data providers gives us some clues into what major players are doing during this supposed lull.

I talk about this a lot — many are getting frustrated because of the recent pullback and boring price action. This is a dip for ants guys — it’s not even really a dip lol. Bitcoin is still well over $90,000 and alts have SOME dignity left. If we dip to the 80’s or 70’s would lead to mass capitulation which is crazy.

The main alpha I see in the market right now is $ETH and alts. I am not a fortune teller — and I cannot tell you when they will begin their pump. But it’s obvious from a sentiment standpoint and the on chain data that ETH is likely going to have a face ripper this year. Trump, Goldman, Fidelity, and others are not buying ETH for their health, neither is this whale who bought $97,200,000 worth last night. When ETH runs memes like PEPE will fly and we may get the alt season that so many have been hoping for on true utility alts like AVAX, LINK, GRT, AAVE, and others. Don’t underestimate how fast shit pumps when ETH gets going.

Bitcoin is Bitcoin. I think, as I have said before, the “cycle” top for Bitcoin this year or early next is $120,000 to $140,000ish (though I am confident on a longer time frame we go much much higher).

If you own none and have $50,000 to throw at crypto this year is that worth it? Only you can answer that — my Bitcoin bags are packed already. Outsized returns will likely be able to be had in ETH and alts eventually for those with more short to medium time frames.

As I was typing this at around 5:30pm ET yesterday — it was announced that 21Shares has proposed staking for Ethereum ETFs and price is climbing which is turbo bullish — this will get passed eventually.

Question you have to ask yourself is how patient are you and will you buy blood if we dip again lower for some reason. For me personally? I know there’s a moment coming this year where I am going to wish I backed the truck up and loaded up on ETH and my alt bets.

The game in this market right now is patience. The wall of institutional money is there. Sitting on your hands, you’re going to outperform 95% of traders and ADHD spazzoids who hop from one thing to the next.

---

Geopolitics & Global News

In recent geopolitical developments, the Guyana–Venezuela border dispute has intensified, with both nations engaging in military posturing and diplomatic exchanges over the contested Essequibo region. Concurrently, a thwarted coup attempt in Armenia has heightened tensions, as authorities allege Russian involvement in the plot.

President Donald Trump, alongside Elon Musk, has announced plans for significant staff reductions within the federal government. An executive order mandates federal agencies to collaborate with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to implement these cuts, aiming to address the national deficit.

• President Trump says he and Russia's Putin agreed to visit each other's nations and "start negotiations immediately."

• A Military plane crashed into San Diego Bay yesterday; 2 pilots were rescued

• Israel is considering significant strikes on Iran nuclear sites this year, U.S. intelligence agencies warned according to the WSJ

• This week, Tulsi Gabbard was confirmed as the Director of National Intelligence in a closely contested Senate vote

• Attorney General Pam Bondi has announced yesterday the DOJ has filed charges against the State of New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul, AG Letitia James, and DMV Commissioner Mark Schroeder. New York has chosen to prioritize illegal aliens over American citizens. It stops — it stops today”

• The M23 rebel group launched a new offensive in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, capturing key strategic areas and escalating tensions in the region.

• Australia, alongside the U.S. and UK, announced sanctions on a Russian cyber-related entity accused of supporting criminal activities, expanding efforts to combat global cyber threats

• China has pushed back against U.S. efforts to pressure Panama into canceling an infrastructure deal tied to the Belt and Road Initiative, adding to ongoing geopolitical frictions between the two powers

• Ecuador held its general elections, electing a new president and National Assembly members, setting the stage for potential policy shifts in the region

DOGE, Government Corruption

Dylan Hedtler-Gaudette, director of Government Affairs at the NGO "Project On Government Oversight" (POGO), said today in a hearing that he can’t see any widespread abuse or waste from government spending. The irony is — he’s actually blind. You actually cannot make this shit up.

And of course there is rampant fraud — this is a fact. Only the tip of the iceberg has been revealed in the last month or so through efforts by DOGE and the Trump administration. I want to be very clear — this is not a political issue — this impacts all Americans and citizens globally. Some on the left are making the argument that this is tyranny lol — wrong. What WAS TAKING PLACE was literal tyranny. Among the fraud, waste, ad deceit uncovered to add on top of the instances I talked about a week ago include:

• The DHS is now saying they have clawed back the full $59 million FEMA had given to NYC for migrant hotels, firings of several individuals involved have taken place

• Tom Homan, Director of ICE, confirmed this week that the ICE operation to remove illegals in this country over the last couple weeks was leaked — and it appears to have originated from inside the FBI. Homan notes there is now a criminal investigation underway. Complete subversion of our government by our own agency

• Nearly $500 million in food aid was at risk of spoilage due to delays in storage and distribution, worsened by Biden administration pauses that slowed relief efforts

• A USAID employee falsely reported living in Washington, D.C., to receive a higher locality pay rate, while actually residing in Florida, leading to significant overcompensation

• A former program leader falsely claimed housing allowances for temporary quarters in Jordan while living elsewhere, resulting in improper financial gains

• Some USAID funds were directed toward individuals linked to terrorist organizations, including financing the education of an American-born al Qaeda member — that’s awesome guys, killer job there

These are TAME examples of what’s being uncovered. I talk more about this on today’s episode of Risk On.

As a nice cherry on top — Google searches this week in Washington DC for "criminal defense attorney" have surged to #1 (up over 300%).

Seems the rats really are trying to jump ship as the spotlight is shined on the true rot and corruption in DC. We haven’t even begun examining the Pentagon, Department of Education, or other agencies yet.

TLDR here? Your government was giving YOUR taxpayer money to causes you didn’t agree with (in some cases ABSURD things) AND to themselves through shell companies and bogus contracts. This should piss everyone off. .

While it doesn’t surprise me people are making this a political issue, it’s a shame because it has been impacting all of us and involved people and organizations on both sides of the aisle — it just so happens the last administration clearly turbocharged this effort. It’s not shocking why so many politician’s net worth was sky high on low salaries with the level of fraud being uncovered.

Defense & Europe

New Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth spoke this week at the NATO ministerial in Europe after opting out of the Munich Security Conference, he chose instead to visit troops in Poland and Belgium, he said "I would much rather talk to troops than go to cocktail parties."

At the Ukraine Defense Contact Group which is the alliance of 50+ countries and the European Union — Hegseth had firm words for Europe and the world in regards to the ongoing situation in Ukraine. He ruled out Ukraine becoming a part of NATO and touched on how unrealistic it is to expect a return to Ukraine’s 2014 borders as a part of a negotiation with Russia.

"The United States does not believe that NATO membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome for a negotiated settlement…. chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering”

Additionally he made it clear that no American troops would be sent to Ukraine as a piece of any future security agreement that arises.

It seems War in Ukraine could be ending soon and with it might come a proper investigation into what was actually going on with US aid supplied to the country. We found out through USAID that roughly 90% of media outlets in the country were receiving money from the agency along with the NY Times and Politico.

This week, Donald Trump announced that he and Vladimir Putin have agreed to begin negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. Following what he described as a productive conversation, Trump also spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who expressed cautious optimism about potential peace efforts. A meeting is set to take place in Munich, with U.S. officials, including the Secretary of State and Vice President, expected to participate.

For better or for worse — international relations will be taking an entirely new direction under the new administration. A peace resolution in Ukraine would likely send global market higher barring any complications.

---

That’s it for today guys — everyone’s been asking me for the Discord link so HERE it is. You can follow me on X HERE.

See you guys early next week — I will see some of you in the Discord over the weekend.

Andy

BullX Crypto Trading Software

Gemini Crypto - Get Free Bitcoin

Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before investing and ensure you have a good understanding of your personal risk tolerance.