Emergency Market Dip Guide for Size Lords
538: How To Play Boots on The Ground in Iran, Fire Sale Stocks I am Buying
Happy Friday you sick pups.
Well it’s looking like the selling is picking up some steam. There’s been more speculation and positioning that looks indicative of a major ground operation taking place in Iran in the foreseeable future.
Reports this week suggest the Pentagon is considering deploying up to 10,000 additional U.S. troops to the Middle East, a move that would meaningfully expand the current military presence in the region.
On top of the that, the UAP/UFO sightings as well as attempted sabotage/terror attacks are spreading across the US. Austin and Ohio residents reported seeing odd fireballs in the sky this week and a Chinese brother and sister duo planted an IED at MacDill Air Force Base the home to CENTCOM and U.S. Special Operations Command in Florida.
Meanwhile you have the White House twitter/x account posting bizzare cryptic schizo posts hourly.
Crazy times is an understatement.
We’re covering it all here.
75% of you voted yesterday for a third post some weeks covering the need to know data from the week in a more synthesized and succint format (hyperlinks etc.). We will trial that in full next weekend.
Arb Letter was designed to be a single source of reference in times like these, summarizing the need to know intelligence you need without all of the fluff and noise you’d find in legacy news or media sources.
If you missed some of the posts from past weeks you can find them below.
The New Rules of Money, Power, and Survival
Is a Massive False Flag Coming?
Anyway let’s get into the good stuff:
What am I buying today while markets dump hard
What might be happening after hours today
Energy market implications of this war
Why you need to adjust your short term strategy ASAP
Clear now, this is not going to be some fleeting short term joy ride in Iran. This admin has more than likely fucked up or is playing some warped version of 4D chess.
Maybe there’s some bigger stuff we are not privy to but my gut tells me we’ve entered the “too far to turn back” zone which just means we need to factor that into our strategy to avoid losing more and more money.
Something is coming after hours today or over the weekend.
"Donald Trump floods the zone at all hours, but his latest reversal on Iran makes one thing clear: he makes many of his biggest gambits when US markets are dark”
— Bloomberg
Are we About To Dump Harder?
At this point there’s no doubt about it, markets are beginning to turn bearish.
The Nasdaq is now officially in correction territory, down -10% from its October 2025 high (Kobeissi Letter), Bitcoin has fallen below $66,000, and the S&P 500 is down almost 7% YTD as of today.
Volatility is picking up across equities and crypto, large options expiries are adding pressure to price action, and flows have turned increasingly defensive as capital rotates into mostly energy and cash.
Oil moving higher on Middle East tensions is only adding fuel to the fire, tightening financial conditions at the exact wrong time for all of us who are long and strong.
At the same time, rate cuts are being pushed further and further out. The market and predictions odds on Polymarket are now pricing a higher for longer environment, with meaningful easing not expected until well into 2027. TLDR the Fed is cooked.
What does this mean for your portfolio?