Brown University Update, Australian Shenanigans, Triple Witching Day
513: Global Terror, Western Denial, Market Fragility
Afternoon,
Wild week that’s for sure.
All across the world things are beginning to break.
As we head into end of year here are some of the top paid posts from the last 2 months. Make sure to check them out as the majority of them cover topics and information that will be quite useful in the new year. .
15 Stocks That Could be The Next Palantir
The 2026 Blueprint: Survive the Chaos, Profit From the Future
*A quick note regarding the global news and geopolitical updates we have been providing (tough to keep up). Things are escalating across the globe and getting spicier. Truths are starting to emerge that the censorship machine is struggling to hide despite their best efforts. Because of this I can’t stress enough how important it is (if you want these updates) to subscribe here and follow us on X. Traditional platforms are tripling down on censorship and throttling efforts in order to suppress the truth, content, and media that contradicts the narratives they want to propagate and maintain. As political violence increases it becomes 10x more important to regulate who sees what.
Arb Letter was designed and launched to navigate and bring clarity in this exact environment: when the noise dials up, the powers that be want to keep you confused, and the truth must be suppressed at all costs.
Let’s dive in today.
Markets & Crypto
Early week was bloody across the board for us but the inflation print yesterday morning seems to already be turning things around.
The inflation print was a clear downside surprise, with headline CPI falling to 2.7% versus expectations of 3.1%, and core CPI dropping to 2.6% versus 3.0% expected, marking the sharpest deceleration since March 2025. The data shows inflation pressures are easing faster than policymakers anticipated, materially weakening the Fed’s case for staying restrictive much longer.
While markets will still debate whether this reflects supply-side normalization or early demand cooling, the immediate implication is a stronger case for rate cuts, lower yields, and a supportive near-term backdrop for risk assets.
There’s also the question of lagging or missing data to consider.
President Trump will make an announcement to the nation at 1 pm today
Nvidia, NVDA 0.00%↑ is planning to build a $1.5 billion dollar campus and server farm in Israel (Times of Israel)
Activist investor Elliott has built a more than $1 billion stake in LULU 0.00%↑ Lululemon (WSJ)
Palladium soared to it’s highest price in nearly three years this week
Japan’s central bank hiked rates 25 bps to 0.75%, the highest level in 30 years
Nike is down 10% in premarket due to slowing China sales and tariff woes
Today is a triple-witching day, meaning stock options, index options, and index futures all expire at the same time while major portfolios and indexes are rebalanced. Roughly $7 trillion in derivatives exposure is set to roll off all at once, forcing traders to close, roll, or hedge positions, which often leads to surging volume and sharp, erratic price moves.
Triple witchings occur four times a year and frequently produces some of the busiest trading sessions of the calendar - so be on the lookout for volatility and entries on names you’ve been following.
As indicated in our last post I added a decent chunk of PPA 0.00%↑ this week and some AVGO 0.00%↑ yesterday morning. I am generally pretty bullish on defense even though Trump’s address didn’t involve the announcement of a Blitzkrieg on Venezuela. Tensions in Europe, the Middle East, and LATAM should help buoy this industry throughout 2026.
“I’m pleased to announce that I will be signing an Executive Order to reschedule marijuana from a Schedule I to a Schedule III controlled substance with legitimate medical uses.”
—President Donald Trump
One of our older plays, QUIK 0.00%↑ had a good day yesterday.
QuickLogic drew attention this week after announcing an expansion of its U.S. government contract for radiation-hardened FPGA technology, increasing the total contract ceiling to approximately $88 million over multiple years.
The deal strengthens the company’s positioning in mission-critical defense and space applications and extends its long-term revenue runway beyond recent weak quarterly results.
I am likely wrapping up equity purchases for the year but will keep you guys updated if I rip something. Make sure you guys are looking at harvesting losses as we close out the year, if you are unsure shoot a note to your accountant for a quick summary on what makes sense.
Crypto
Crypto price action was particularly interesting. It’s obvious we are in some sort of extended boredom/shake out phase. Reckless traders keep trying to catch the next leg up or down with leverage and they keep getting liquidated.
They just don’t learn their lesson.
On Tuesday we ripped up to over $90,000 in a short time only to reverse immediately. A clear move by market makers to rinse some leveraged shorts and dump again.
Yesterday morning we saw some relief as the inflation numbers came out.
Then we dumped again lol.
Now we are up again this morning.
Expect this kind of stuff to continue as it has pretty much defined the last several months.
The Senate confirmed pro-crypto Michael Selig as CFTC Chairman (WatcherGuru)
Over $3,000,000,000 worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options will expire today
Citibank has said recently Bitcoin could reach $189,000 in 2026
BlackRock reiterated its view that tokenization and on-chain settlement are core to future financial markets
On-chain data showed large Bitcoin holders accumulating aggressively
The obvious read on the initial pump we saw yesterday is that cooler-than-expected inflation strengthens the case for rate cuts and looser financial conditions, which is structurally bullish for crypto over the medium term. Stocks loved it but I think the leverage wars are going to just keep playing out on the crypto side.
Lower inflation reduces real yield pressure, weakens the dollar, and pushes investors back out the risk curve which are all tailwinds for Bitcoin and higher-beta assets (like meme coins and alts).
That said, in the short term crypto remains a liquidity game, meaning sharp rips and violent reversals are likely to continue as positioning resets and leveraged degens get flushed before any sustained trend higher can take hold. It will be interesting to see how the stock market performs relative to crypto between now and Spring of 2026.
Survive through the holidays and keep tracking the bullish updates, I still firmly believe 2026 is going to surprise people on the crypto front once we gain clarity on the Fed chair nomination.
Keep an eye on those odds HERE on Polymarket as crypto friendly Hassett is pulling ahead again as the favorite. That would be a massive W if it coincided with the printer warming up.
I am mainly focused on accumulating more ETH and AVAX right now.
Geopolitics & Global News
We are entering some rocky waters here on the global stage.
The nationalism vs. progressivism (globalism) battle I have referenced before is amplifying greatly across the world with governments increasingly forced to choose between sovereignty and social engineering, security and openness, stability and ideology.
These tensions are no longer abstract they’re now showing up in policy decisions, election outcomes, street-level unrest, and market volatility, setting the tone for the next phase of global news and risk.
Brown University Update
The bizarre story of the shooting at Brown University continued this week with a major update last night as the shooting suspect was found dead of a self-inflicted gunshot wound inside an Extra Space storage facility in Salem, New Hampshire, per Fox and other outlets.
Authorities have identified the suspect in the Brown University shooting as Claudio Manuel Neves Valente, a 48-year-old Portuguese national with a past academic connection to Brown and he is believed to have perpetrated the Brown shooting and the murder of the MIT professor.
The shooting took place during finals week when Valente opened fire inside a campus academic building, killing two students and injuring multiple others. The attack prompted an immediate lockdown and a multi-day, multi-state manhunt involving local, state, and federal authorities.
At this point I think it is likely the university did all it could to hamper the investigation and potentially even cover up what took place, since many of the details point to all of these attacks being targeted hits.
What was particularly damning about all of this was the utter incompetency of the Brown university staff and Providence Police Department.
The image above shared showing the gap in Brown University camera coverage. The university was pressured months ago by Pro Palestine students to remove cameras or turn them off so that protests and activity would go unrecorded. The school failed to answer if they complied with that request or if it played a role in why there is such a lack of footage of the killer.
The Providence Police Chief (a product of DEI) even revealed this week that 5 whole days after the shooting, they had not interviewed the student eye witnesses for any type of description of the shooter.
Now why would you not do that?
But it gets even better.
Gina Milan on X reported yesterday on a new element of corruption tied to the Police Chief that mainstream news covered last night:
Providence Police Chief Col. Oscar Perez’s nephew, Jasdrual “Josh” Perez, was sentenced to 22.5 years in federal prison for running one of the largest fentanyl rings in the region—flooding RI & beyond with millions of deadly pills.
Feds called his uncle (Sgt. Andres Perez) a ‘knowing or unwitting participant,’ yet no local PPD investigation ever occurred.
BUT IT SOMEHOW GETS EVEN BETTER.
The day before the Brown University shooting, it is being reported that a U.S. Marshals Fugitive Task Force was operating right next to campus looking for a specific high-risk target.
Just a coincidence I’m sure right?
Brown officials are even telling us now (contrary to the reports he shouted Allahu Akbar) that the shooter made a “barking noise” before the attack.
Is he a half dog animorph?
As we start to learn more in the coming days Brown is likely to come under more scrutiny and will likely be dealing with its share of lawsuits for how it handled the investigation and security of students.
Additionally we will see if we get more info on the connection between Valente and the MIT Professor (both Portuguese) as well as the two Brown students killed: Ella Cook, College Republicans VP and Mukhammad Aziz Umurzokov, a freshman foreign student.
Just bizarre.
Australia Update
Australian social media and X are buzzing with commentary on the recent terror attack in Bondi Beach. People are arguing about gun control, profiling, deportations, and more.
The entire event has been a case study in how soft the “West” has become. Australia has become insanely progressive since Covid when they sent people to literal camps and upped their intake of migrants from all over the world.
Bondi survivor Vanessa Miller said in an interview that she tried to grab the gun of a critically injured officer to suppress the terrorists. Instead of returning fire, the officers made it a priority to STOP her from using the firearm lol:
“These police officers were hiding behind a car... I tried to grab one of their guns. Another one grabbed me and said ‘no.’ I hope they are hearing this. You are weak. You could have saved so many more people’s lives. They were just watching this all happen, holding me back.”
The entire event was characterized by progressive anarcho tyranny and the political climate that has come to define the UK, Australia, Canada, and the US:
The man who intervened let the attacker go and he then proceeded to run back to his companion, get another gun, and continue the attack
Police were slow to respond, some were paralyzed as the attack unfolded
Social media erupted in defense of Muslims in the hours after the attack. People were more angry about backlash over immigration than they were the actual attack
All of this is the same exact dynamic that attempts to deter anyone in the US from defending themselves or others with force when targeted by criminals (Daniel Penny, Kyle Rittenhouse, etc.).
You will notice the common thread here: violence is not okay for YOU to employ. It must be avoided at all costs even as you are getting shot and killed by terrorists. The state gets the monopoly on violence and they will frequently be paralyzed by political correctness when the occasion calls for its use.
On the heels of the attack by a Pakistani father son terrorist duo, an interesting scene played out.
Yesterday morning 5-7 more suspected Islamist terrorists near Liverpool, Sydney were detained by Australian law enforcement. Initial reports indicated they were on their way to Bondi Beach and potentially had weapons.
This came after aggressive demonstrations across Australia in the wake of the shooting at Bondi by Muslims.
As of THIS morning officials are now saying they are releasing the individuals. This is after reports that police confirmed the 7 men have “ideological connections” to the Bondi Beach terrorists (Visegrad 24) but no “evidence” to hold them.
Pretty odd given they rammed the car they were in and made a big scene on the street. Is this an attempt to regain optics? An honest f*ck up? Or is Australia getting cucked again and letting these guys back into the community despite risks being present?
Not sure, but I do know this: the progressive backlash and whining about profiling, far right extremists, and gun access is insufferably naïve.
Check out this strange Orwellian video somehow making the problem more about White Supremacists than Radical Islamic Terror lol.
Islamic terror is rearing its head across the world as we close out the year despite the media’s desperate attempts to downplay it. The trend is quite clear.
Would you rather hurt some feelings and be overly cautious or have another deadly attack play out?
These people don’t use logic, they get hyper emotional.
As we previously reported on Australia, France and Germany have now cancelled some or all Christmas events and New Years Eve fireworks due to heightened risk of terror attacks.
The guns are not the problem in Australia lol - the issue is individuals with extremist ideology coming to the country. That hasn’t stopped Australia’s prime minister from announcing that hundreds of thousands of firearms will be collected and destroyed in coming months.
As you will see in the next section the UK is taking the same approach to the grooming/rape gang scandals that Australia is taking to radical Islamic terror: they are choosing to gaslight and focus on a non - existent issue rather than the core problem (because it’s seen as xenophobic, racist, etc.).
This is suicidal empathy in action and it’s directly disingenuous.
The UK is Countering Violence Against Women by Educating School Aged Boys?
In classic UK fashion officials and media figures have decided to address the sexual violence against women.
The catch?
It has nothing to do with the migrant grooming gangs or foreigners targeting British girls and women, and instead they have turned it into some bizarre anti misogyny campaign for school aged boys (who of course are white in the media images).
This week the U.K. government unveiled an ambitious new strategy aimed at tackling misogyny and violence against women and girls, with a major focus on early intervention and education.
Central to the plan is a £20 million commitment to train teachers to spot and challenge misogynistic attitudes, introduce healthy-relationship lessons in secondary schools, and intervene with boys showing harmful behavior before it escalates (lol). They even had media features on Andrew Tate.
The initiative also includes measures to curb online harms, such as restrictions on AI “nudification” tools and stronger guidance on digital safety for young people.
The announcement has sparked immediate political controversy, with some senior politicians criticizing the focus on classroom intervention and instead arguing that broader issues like policing and immigration deserve more attention
Which of course is the truth.
The mental gymnastics aren’t just misunderstanding, it’s the direct gaslighting to make people think the issue lies with boys in school rather than the recently uncovered systematic abuse of women by foreigners.
Batshit insane even for the UK. It’s impressive at this point.
In other news:
The CDC has formally stopped recommending hepatitis B vaccines for all newborns (NBC)
Dan Bongino announced: “I will be leaving my position with the FBI in January” my guess? He bit off way more than he could chew and the deep state proved to be too much
Trump has now expanded the U.S. travel ban to 5 more countries, including Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, South Sudan and Syria, as well as Palestine (CBC/Unusual Whales)
An X user has been jailed for 18 months for two anti-immigration posts made after a German Christmas market attack that were viewed only 33 times
An appeals court sided with Trump’s National Guard deployment to DC this week
Two “Massachusetts men”(actually two Haitian men) were arrested and charged in a scheme to fraudulently obtain millions in SNAP benefits through small variety stores. They redeemed $100K–$500K in benefits per month, outpacing supermarkets, and sold donated food meant for children overseas
About half or more of the roughly $18 billion in claims paid out by Medicaid to Minnesota-run programs may have been fraudulent, and at least 14 programs were likely exploited, a federal prosecutor said Thursday (CBS News)
In 2016, Zohran Mamdani’s director of appointments wrote, “It’s important that white people feel defeated” which pairs nicely with the article that went turbo viral this week from CompactMag
We’re going to witness a pretty wild year in 2026 and we will make sure to lay out some predictions in the next week or so.
That’s it for this week gents. We will be back Tuesday for our last post before Christmas and then we will do a mega review before the New Year for paid subs.
Enjoy the weekend and don’t forget to check out the gift guide if you guys need some last minute
Godspeed
Andy
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Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before