All-Time Highs and Absolute Chaos
542: We Are So Back (And It’s Getting Reckless)
Morning lords.
My mood is substantially elevated on this fine day. It was 80 degrees yesterday, I just broke out the deal sled collection, and the markets are looking absurdly bullish (for now).
Congratulations on making it through your winter arc and into the spring abundance period where we are going to run up some stacks of fat bandos and make the haters cry.
Some quick house keeping before we dive in today. I am in the process of updating the Arbitrage Andy store and we have some new additions including the Strait of Hormuz Yacht Club T Shirt and a new Defense Contractor piece as well. You can check them out here.
We will likely do a Saturday morning post this weekend as many of you had indicated you’d like to see that when we ran a poll in March.
Today we have to talk through the S&P 500 new ATH, Allbirds pivoting to becoming an AI company, crypto institutional news continuing to drop, and tech names that are running hard on this market leg higher.
Sentiment seems to be improving, which means more opportunity.
Let’s get it.
S&P Goes Psycho Mode to New All Time High
If you look at markets since the Covid bottom, we really are living through insane times.
Markets ripped higher yesterday, with the S&P 500 pushing toward fresh highs as dip buyers stepped in aggressively once again. The Nasdaq is on one of the most insane winning streaks since 2021.
The move was thick and broad (giggity), led by tech and momentum names as investors leaned back into the classic “buy everything” trade despite lingering uncertainty over Trump’s next move on Iran.
Panic sellers are down astronomically. Polymarket odds are rising now that the S&P ends the year between $7,000 and $7,500. Deutsche Bank had set a year-end 2026 price target of 8,000 just months ago.
Most picks we highlighted from two weeks ago are now well into the money including AMZN, AVGO, PLTR, and AMD.
Paid subs are printing right now on our MSFT 0.00%↑ call with the stock up 10.5% in the last 5 days of trading. INTC 0.00%↑ up massive too along with UAMY 0.00%↑.
ONDS 0.00%↑ is leading the drone pump.
I maintain the story on this name is pretty tight despite it selling off a bit into the start of April. You get defense exposure, autonomous systems, new partnerships weekly, and it is positioned as a smaller, more agile version of the primes. That’s enough to attract serious momentum and attention online. The ONDS subsidiary Sentrycs, was picked for counter drone defense at the World Cup.
Today if I buy anything it will likely be some PANW 0.00%↑ and some CRWD 0.00%↑.
That being said, if you think crypto is about to pump likely not a bad time to also reexamine some cyclical crypto plays in traditional markets, things like COIN 0.00%↑ MARA 0.00%↑ etc.
The Allbirds Psycho Run
Yesterday we saw a new story that seems like it came straight from the Gamestop era.
Allbirds, the shoe company, announced a pivot to AI. Yes I am serious. The stock was up 800% at one point yesterday.
The stock, which had been effectively dead after collapsing since its 2021 peak, suddenly exploded higher after the company revealed plans to rebrand as “NewBird AI” and raise capital to move into GPU infrastructure and AI compute.
This whole thing is adding fuel to the “AI bubble” fire given it is also quite similar to what took place during the dotcom bubble where narrative consistently outpaced fundamentals, and anything even loosely tied to the theme caught a bid. Back then it was companies slapping “.com” onto their name and doubling overnight.
Today, it’s legacy or struggling businesses invoking “AI transformation” and getting rewarded for the story alone.
Instead of making shitty techbro sneakers they’re pivoting to compete with major AI players! Instant value!
Allbirds of course isn’t an AI company yet, but it is a valuable lesson of where the crowd will flock when the market is aggressively chasing exposure to anything tied to the current theme (AI).
I will not be chasing this lol.
Market Headlines:
Spirit Airlines is reportedly at risk of liquidation as rising fuel costs worsen its financial crisis (Polymarket) Shame!
US oil exports hit a record 5.2 million barrels per day last week (WatcherGuru)
Call option volume has surged to 47 million contracts per day, up 75% since the start of the month while put volume has fallen 15% to 32 million (Polymarket Money)
Mark Zuckerberg of META 0.00%↑ reportedly physically moved his desk to be closer to Meta’s AI team, and has been “coding all day long” (Polymarket)
Tesla added about 8% this week on Elon updates regarding chip progress
SEC Change
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is reportedly scrapping the Pattern Day Trader rule, eliminating the long standing $25,000 minimum to actively trade equities and replacing it with a more flexible intraday margin system.
On the surface, it’s a major win for accessibility. In reality, it likely injects even more volatility and degeneracy into the system.
Removing PDT opens the door for a wave of smaller, highly active traders now able to move in and out of positions freely.
That means we get faster flows, more crowding, and sharper intraday swings, essentially hardwiring the kind of behavior seen during the GameStop short squeeze into everyday market structure.
More participation doesn’t really mean more stability, in this cases it means more speed, more leverage, and more reflexivity.
Buckle up, if you thought things got crazy during Covid the future is going to make it look like child’s play. Many many young people believe hyper gambling in financial markets is one of the only ways to “make it” now and the truth is, they may not be entirely wrong about that.
Crypto
While the stock market continues to go bonkers, crypto looks like a silent little cobra just coiled up and hanging out in the shade.
Is it going to go parabolic soon? Or roll over again and send Bitcoin back to $60,000s hell?
An interesting data point that CoinDesk pointed out is that Bitcoin funding rates have dropped to their most negative levels since 2023, according to Glassnode.
Historically, periods of deeply negative funding have lined up with local bottoms, including March 2020, mid-2021, and the aftermath of the FTX collapse in 2022. You also have billionaire Tim Draper predicting a $250,000 bitcoin price in a recent series of comments he made on the state of crypto.
Short term I don’t care (though my gut tells me things are coiling right now). I am paying attention to who is building and what they are focused on during this time period.
Morgan Stanley is making it clear that tokenization is moving from concept to core infrastructure within its wealth business. There’s a reason I have been pushing our tokenization guides non stop for months (you can find them below)
The Next Generational Wealth Opportunity
The Next Generational Wealth Opportunity Part 2
On its latest earnings call, leadership pointed to a future where assets, funds, and credit products operate on blockchain rails rather than traditional account based systems.
The focus is on faster settlement, improved transparency, and the ability to move capital more efficiently across portfolios and counterparties. This is not being framed as an edgy crypto experiment anymore but as a structural upgrade to how financial assets are issued, tracked, and traded. It is quite literally the next logical extension of finance and markets.
The implications for crypto are significant.
If major institutions begin integrating tokenized assets into advisory and portfolio construction, it creates real demand for the underlying rails that make this possible.
Which ideally you have exposure to…..
That includes smart contract platforms, tokenization protocols, custody solutions, and onchain liquidity venues. Instead of relying purely on speculation, certain tokens begin to tie directly into financial infrastructure and transaction flow.
In my opinion it also reinforces the idea that the next phase of crypto adoption is not retail driven hype but serious institutional integration. The winners in that environment are likely to be protocols that can handle compliance, scale, and interoperability with existing financial systems.
In short, this is less about crypto replacing Wall Street and more about Wall Street showing that they are moving onchain (during a time when most retail folks have thrown in the towel or are distracted by stocks).
Bitwise launched its Avalanche ETF ($BAVA) this week, with in-house staking offering 5.4% staking rewards to investors (CoinTelegraph)
Whales have accumulated 270,000 BTC in 30 days, the largest buying spree since 2013 (Bitfinex)
CoinDesk is reporting that negotiations on the crypto CLARITY Act have been narrowed to just 2-3 unresolved issues with a Senate staffer describing the draft as “very close,” citing to a JPMorgan report
Morgan Stanley clients accumulated over $100,000,000 worth of $BTC in the first week of its ETF going live (WhaleInsider)
Chainlink partners with SIX Group, operator of the Swiss and Spanish national exchanges, to bring €2+ trillion in European equities data onchain (CoinTelegraph)
Additionally, it is worth highlighting the onchain AI narrative is starting to take shape as the next layer of crypto infrastructure and gain steam online.
Instead of just tokenizing assets, teams are starting to put data, models, and agents directly onchain, enabling autonomous systems to execute trades, manage treasuries, and interact with protocols in real time.
The real unlock here is coordination. AI agents can plug into DeFi rails and operate 24/7, allocating capital, arbitraging markets, and optimizing strategies without human input. That turns crypto from a passive asset class into an active, machine driven economy. Pretty wild to watch this all coming together.
If this scales, the value shifts toward tokens tied to data access, compute, and agent coordination rather than just simple financial primitives, stuff like:
Chainlink (LINK)
The Graph (GRT)
Render (RENDER)
Near Protocol (NEAR)
Akash Network (AKT)
The endgame here is essentially a fully onchain system where capital and intelligence move together.
As I have said guys, now is not the time to ignore this space. There is still a disconnect between crypto and legacy markets for now. Don’t wait until that changes.
Global News
It would seem my monkey brained thesis that the markets are getting immune to Iran headlines has some validity to it. After the initial spike in oil and volatility, the reaction has clearly faded.
Equities have stabilized, oil has pulled back from its highs, and the broader market is starting to look through the conflict rather than react to every headline.
On top of that we now we even have Trump indicating Cuba might be next.
The Pentagon has reportedly began early stage discussions with automakers like General Motors and Ford Motor Company about potentially shifting manufacturing capacity toward weapons and military equipment as U.S. stockpiles get drawn down.
One thing is for sure, you can likely feel good about your defense positions for the remainder of the Trump administration as we continue to see a steady drumbeat of geopolitical tension, rising global defense budgets, and a clear shift toward hard power.
From Middle East flare ups to Eastern Europe and now the growing focus on China, the direction is consistent. More spending, faster procurement cycles, and a heavy emphasis on next-gen warfare including drones, AI, and autonomous systems.
"I'd like to emphasize during this pause that the United States joint force remains postured and ready to resume major combat operations at literally a moment's notice."
—Chairman Gen. Dan Caine, Joint Chiefs of Staff
Trump said this week China has agreed not to send weapons to Iran (InsiderWire)
The IEA announced that Europe has just 6 weeks worth of jet fuel remaining as the Iran War shortage worsens (Kobeissi Letter)
Minnesota legislators filed to impeach Tim Walz this week (InsiderWire)
Pete Hegseth announced that the U.S. will launch “Operation Economic Fury” on Iran
Syria says that it has taken control of all bases previously operated by US forces (AFP/Insider Paper)
Former Virginia Lt. Governor Justin Fairfax and his wife found dead in apparent murder-suicide (BNO News)
The White House has said it will investigate reports that 10 US nuclear scientists have recently gone missing or died (Remarks)
Police in South Africa said Thursday they arrested anti-Western activist Kemi Seba, who is wanted in Benin for “inciting rebellion (The Africa Report)
Have a great rest of the week guys - we will be back with a short review on Saturday morning for all of the early morning espresso enjoyers.
See you guys on X. Make sure to head to the store if you want to cop a new Yacht Club T Shirt. I will be re-launching the Somalia Yacht Club shirt later today in summer colors.
Follow Us on X for More Live Updates
Join the Arbitrage Andy Discord
Arbitrage Andy Merch Shop
Monitor the Situation on Polymarket
Disclaimer - I am a monkey brained former salesman and trader who enjoys writing about crypto, markets, and global events. None of this is to be considered formal financial advice. Always invest in accordance with your own personal risk tolerance and thresholds in mind. God speed.
This allbirds move is wild. Still believe in ai, but this shiz has Tulips written ALL over it.
Andy, I just saw the link for the swag and loaded up. Wonderfully captioned product! Enjoy the weekend!