ARB Letter

ARB Letter

13 Stock Picks for Trump's AI Revolution

506: Genesis Mission, Crypto Bounces, Ukraine Deal?

Arbitrage Andy's avatar
Arbitrage Andy
Nov 25, 2025
∙ Paid

Morning everyone.

Interesting price action so far this week as we lead up to Thanksgiving in the US, looks like we might have a better idea of where markets will go through year end by late this week.

We also got a massive executive order from Donald Trump that could continue to add fuel to the AI powered bull run across the globe AND reports that a peace deal in Ukraine might be close, though we’re already starting to hear Putin might not be all in which is a huge shocker.

Never a dull moment these days.

For my complete thoughts on the state of crypto and this recent dump you should read the post I put out Friday (assuming many missed it). No doubt we are in an interesting pocket of opportunity after what I would call a severe emotional overreaction to what appeared to be systematic selling.

But conditions might be improving quickly.

Rate cut odds (covered below by Polymarket) have surged up to about 80% now ( changed post PPI print this morning).

Previously no cut and cut 25 had converged but it’s clear the market now thinks Jerome’s hand will be forced. The Fed’s Stephen Miran this week is saying that “the economy calls for large interest rate cuts”.

As of this morning these odds have jumped to 87% - Check them out here

This morning PPI came in. Headline PPI came in exactly as expected (0.3% MoM, 2.7% YoY) which essentially tells us we have no surprise re-acceleration and no inflation “shock” that would force the Fed to get overly hawkish.

Core PPI came in cooler than expected (0.1% MoM vs 0.2%, 2.6% YoY vs 2.7%) and this is going to be the real story this morning.

For those of you who are like “I don’t know what this means”.

A miss on the downside generally says:

  • Underlying inflation pressures continue to cool

  • Supply chain & input cost normalization is still intact

  • Firms are losing pricing power

  • No evidence of an inflation resurgence beneath the surface

As we head into the end of the year, everyone's going to need to decide what type of exposure they want to have to the markets.

Are you convinced the madness is going to continue to send us higher or do you think there are more bloody days ahead.

There’s zero question we are inevitably going to see more volatility, rebalancing into the end of the year, as well as some hints on what we can expect in 2026.

Are we about to absolutely fucking torch it higher in 2026 and enter some insane futuristic up only AI/Crypto/Tech ascension into heaven or are things going to break meaningfully and shatter reality?

Because the cross-currents right now are all bleeding into one another:

• Crypto just delivered a violent liquidity flush — a reminder that when positioning is crowded, even a mild macro wobble can trigger a full liquidation cascade. This wasn’t structural weakness; it was leverage getting vaporized ahead of the Fed.

• Rate-cut odds are now a live grenade. The market keeps whipsawing between 25bps, a pause, and even whispers of an extended hold. Every shift in probabilities triggers algos, beta rotations, and crypto volatility. The uncertainty alone is suppressing risk appetite and scaring retail who can barely afford coffee and rent.

• Nvidia remains the core engine of the global AI economy, and the pullback hasn’t dented the fundamental reality: demand for compute is still outstripping supply. AI workloads are vertical, exponential, and spreading from tech into energy, defense, biotech, and industrial automation. NVDA is still the toll operator for the entire system.

• Google just landed a stunning optics win with Meta exploring billions in spend for its AI chips. This reshapes the AI-sovereignty landscape and forces investors to rethink the chip hierarchy heading into 2026. It may be the start of a bitter NVDA GOOG rivalry

• Trump’s Genesis Mission is the wild card nobody is pricing correctly. A Manhattan Project–style centralization of U.S. data, supercomputers, labs, and private-sector AI models into a single national R&D platform. Based on the plan it fuses energy, AI, compute, biotech, quantum, and defense into one unified policy axis. This is not just industrial policy it’s an attempt to create a national AI monopoly

• AI and macro are now inseparable. The need for compute is driving energy policy, fiscal spending, chip capex, and geopolitical alliances. The need for cheaper capital (rate cuts) is driving the timing of corporate AI buildouts. And the need for liquidity is determining how crypto trades as the high-beta expression of the entire acceleration narrative

• The crypto flush is part of the same story IMO: in an AI-driven, capex-heavy world, liquidity pockets matter more than ever. Crypto is the shock absorber for every shift in Fed policy, compute demand, and risk models. When the system buckles, crypto pukes first; when liquidity returns, it ends up ripping first

All of these forces are converging not competing.

It’s the same trade viewed through different asset classes and frankly, it is a trade that is will make the rich richer and those who do not hold assets realize the future is taking off without them.

Today we’re going to talk through the massive AI related executive order from President Trump that got signed yesterday, 13 stocks you should have in your sights that will likely benefit from this initiative, what my thoughts are on this crypto bounce, and then we will round off with the top headlines of the last 48 hours.

Thanksgiving week and no time to waste so let’s get to it kings. The game board has changed already this week.

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