Happy Friday guys.
Let’s start today with a quote from one of my favorite rappers Kevin Gates.
Anything lost
Can be found again, except for time wasted
Yes we are doing a Friday post before Labor Day Weekend against my better judgement but I think there’s simply too much to cover today to punt it until Tuesday.
You will probably be happy to hear that I am quite bullish on this fine almost Fall morning, though I also think there are some major trends that demand our immediate attention and consideration.
The odds of the Federal Reserve hiking rates in September now sits at almost 53%. Equities are beginning to chop again. Iran is unsettled. AI updates are almost hourly now. The entire nation is reeling from the outcome of a trial in which a woman murdered her three children (absurd amounts of women are trying to defend her actions).
Let’s cut through all of that and get to what matters for you. The humble solider of markets trying to make a name for himself, stay sane, and get ahead of the next major trend.
If you like making money and staying in the loop pay attention brother, this will be worth the read before you sign off before the weekend.
Rest assured most people you come across in your daily life are still miles behind on the topics we will discuss today.
First off crypto.
I am going to go out on a limb and say that if you haven’t taken a moment to consider the possibility that the bottom is in, you may be behind the ball now.
Many of our calls are printing now with some of the positions 40%+ into the money. I can tell you right now there are two personal indicators that tell me you are still early (for now).
For starters, throughout market cycles I see major influxes in free and paid subscriptions. It makes sense, people lurk and then only come back for the good posts when the market is ripping.
The ironic part is the paid subs who stay during the bear market are the ones who catch moves like $ZEC. I have not seen this influx yet and when I do, I will tell you, as it generally marks the official start of a leg much higher.
Then you have the lack of messages for advice on positioning. Last bull run I had an endless deluge of personal DMs about folks asking what they should buy and how they should position. That hasn’t picked up to levels I have seen historically.
Bottom line is you still have time. For now.
Today we are going to go through a revised watchlist, where the money is flowing, a few assetsI am very bullish on right now, and what I think is going to happen before year end, especially as we await a Federal Reserve decision in September.
Crypto is now colliding with several of the largest forces shaping the next decade at exactly the same time:
Institutional adoption
Changing monetary policy
Enormous fiscal deficits
Stablecoins
Tokenization
AI/robotics/automation
A massive digital economy, that will only continue growing
I literally cannot oversell this economic opportunity for you and your bloodline.
Second, the AI revolution continues to charge ahead with the release of OpenAI’s new model Astra. I have to be honest, when I took a look at their promotional video for this model it was the first genuine time I stopped and said “yeah this is going to permanently alter the workforce, job availability, and society in general”.
The capability is astounding and can be applied in limitless way to optimize, replace, and enhance workflows, tasks, and research.
For the last few years I think it is safe to say the debate has largely centered around whether AI will or can help you do your job. I think we are rapidly approaching the point where the more uncomfortable question is now how much of your job actually requires you to be present at all lol.
Here is the deal guys, for Arb Letter readers, I really think the takeaway is going to be less about trying to predict the exact date AGI officially takes over and more about recognizing where this ball is moving (alongside crypto, digital assets, robotics, AI in general, etc.)
The career you have or want, your investments, your business, and the skills you encourage your children to develop are going to exist in a world where intelligence itself is becoming:
Cheaper
Faster
Abundant
That is an extraordinary opportunity if you position yourself and others correctly.
But it is also an enormous risk if you assume the world five years from now will operate anything like the world today.
Hint: it won’t be.
Generally I like to steer away from the hurried approach of telling people time is running out but in this case on the fronts of AI and crypto, I genuinely think the window is closing if you want to ensure you are on the right side of this trade for years to come.
Those who miss out will be in a world of hurt and financial struggle.
Let’s dive in before you start deleting tequila sodas.