WWIII Fears Rise, US Strikes Iran Nuclear Facilities
422: Portfolio Impacts, BTC below $100K, and Homegrown Threats
Hope everyone is having a good weekend.
Tension is getting dialed up a notch, as is the uncertainty for global markets and our portfolios.
Normally I would wait until Monday to send this out but the updates we need to cover today are simply too important to wait on. Hopefully there’s a contingent of people who want to stay informed on critical updates over the weekend.
As I outlined in the last episode of Risk On in its recent strikes, Israel has targeted key sites central to Iran’s uranium enrichment and nuclear capabilities. The attacks hit parts of the Natanz facility—damaging above-ground sections housing advanced centrifuges—while the heavily fortified underground halls remained largely intact.
Similar strikes at Fordow caused some surface-level damage but didn’t significantly impair the underground enrichment operations over the last few weeks.
The Isfahan uranium conversion center sustained substantial damage, disrupting Iran’s ability to process raw uranium. Additionally, Israel struck the Arak heavy-water reactor complex and other related sites in Khondab and Khorramabad, as well as centrifuge production workshops near Tehran, aiming to hinder Iran’s capacity to expand its nuclear program in the near term.
But last night the United States finally struck inside of Iran in what is now being called Operation Midnight Hammer.
After a day filled with amateur geopolitical analyst X posts about air traffic and the location of B2 bombers over the Pacific, we finally got word last night that Trump had just ordered the strike of Iran's nuclear facilities with.
On June 3, I dropped an Arb Letter edition focused on defense investments. While, I wouldn't say I was super early at the time, it was obvious to anyone paying attention that geopolitical tensions were reaching a boiling point and that the conflict between Israel and Iran was likely going to reach a crescendo this month alongside the Ukrainian escalation in Russia.
Many of you positioned accordingly and will likely make a substantial amount of money on market open.
The entire point of Arb Letter is to attempt to accurately forecast what is going to happen next through a realistic lens that removes all of the noise you find in the mainstream.
Hopefully, by now the majority of you realize this. There is a finite amount of sources that you can rely on and trust to accurately paint the picture of what's to come.
Today we're going talk about:
The details of the attack, DOD and Pentagon releases on how it went down
Ramifications and potential consequences globally and in markets (Strait of Hormuz, Oil, etc.)
The capacity for attacks in the US
Likely impacts on markets this week and for the rest of the year
My forecast for risk assets and the broader potential for a much higher before the end of the year, crypto is currently dumping hard, stocks likely follow Monday
Strap up — things just got kinetic yet again in the Middle East, we just simply cannot help ourselves and now our portfolios, global relations, and domestic support are upended once again injecting a great deal of uncertainty into the public.
The Attack - Operation Midnight Hammer
What we had talked about and anticipated for weeks finally came to fruition last night. The US is now directly involved in the war between Iran and Israel.
President Trump announced last night the US completely destroyed Iran's Fordow nuclear facility with six bunker busters dropped from our B-2 bombers. The other two nuclear sites were hit with over 30 tomahawk missiles launched by US submarines 400 miles away in the Indian Ocean.
As I teased in the intro — the last 48 hours were rampant with speculation about the means and timing of the attack on Iran, though most thought it would come this week. X and other platforms were crammed with theories and screenshots of air traffic apps and interfaces that showed B-2 Bombers over the Pacific Ocean.
For those unfamiliar, this is a new modern phenomenon that we also see in Ukraine and other conflicts, where geopolitical influencers/accounts attempt to provide the most recent updates re: movement of key US air assets like fighters, refueling aircraft, government planes, etc to speculate on what they are up to (they do this by tracking transponders on the aircraft).
We now have confirmation from the Pentagon that this was intentional deceit.