Will Ground Troops in Iran Annihilate Markets?

535: S&P 500 lowest close of 2026

Hey guys, afternoon.

Quick note for those of you who haven’t checked out completely for the weekend given the market movement we are seeing today and the capacity for some major shit going down over the weekend (it always comes after market close).

The vibes are bad right now. Ultra bearish.

Make sure you check out yesterday’s post covering the potential for a new major global event. Since I sent it out yesterday afternoon there’s already been new reported drone sightings over US bases and new reports from various news outlets that we might be deploying ground troops in Iran.

Louisiana's Barksdale Air Force Base has had a massive jump in unauthorized drone sightings over the past few weeks.

“Between March 9-15, 2026, BAFB Security Forces observed multiple waves of 12-15 drones operating over sensitive areas of the installation, including the flight line, with aircraft displaying non-commercial signal characteristics, long-range control links and resistance to jamming”

This is where we store long-range B-52 bombers.

It is obvious that we are being cased and surveilled. But by who?

The CCP, Iran, lone wolfs?

I’d be shocked if something doesn’t end up happening soon.

Don’t get blindsided by the next major happening kings.

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Economic & Market Headlines to Keep an Eye On

Markets got hit hard today, with broad-based selling driven by a combination of rising oil, higher yields, and fading hopes for rate cuts. The S&P 500 is down about 2%, tech stocks are murked, even defense names are taking a beating today.

The core driver remains the same guys. Oil + inflation means we stay higher for longer.

Crude has pushed back toward the $100 range as Iran tensions escalate, which then immediately feeds into inflation expectations and sent Treasury yields higher ( 4.3 -4.4%).

That combination continues to pressure equities, particularly growth and tech.

• Nearly half of Americans fear a “total economic collapse” within the next decade, according to a new YouGov poll (Cointelegraph)

• The UK's 10Y Government Bond Yield has officially risen above 5.00% for the first time since 2008 (Kobeissi Letter)

• "California housing crash fears soar as buying rates plummet below Great Recession level” (NYP/Unusual Whales)

• Gold prices are now on track for their largest weekly decline since 1983, down -11.2% (Kobeissi Letter)

• Senators reach deal with White House to resolve crypto stablecoin yield dispute with banks (WatcherGuru)

• Senators and the White House have agreed in principle on the crypto market-structure bill, with stablecoin interest limits and an April vote next (SolidIntel)

One of the more insane stories to hit markets this week came out of the DOJ, which charged three individuals including a co-founder tied to Super Micro Computer SMCI 0.00%↑, in what amounts to a $2.5 billion AI chip smuggling operation.

Talk about illegal size.

At a high level, the scheme allegedly involved purchasing U.S.-built servers loaded with advanced AI chips (widely believed to be Nvidia-powered), and then quietly diverting them to China in violation of U.S. export controls.

Defendants allegedly used shell companies, fake end users, and intermediary countries to mask the final destination of shipments.

To pass inspections, they staged thousands of “dummy servers” which were non-functional replicas, while the real units had already been sent overseas. In some cases, labels and serial numbers were reportedly removed and reapplied using tools as simple as a hair dryer to make everything appear compliant lmao.

Stock is murked today, down about 30%. Might be an interesting buy at some point once the dust has settled.

Today into close I am watching my drone names closely including KTOS 0.00%↑ and ONDS 0.00%↑. If you guys read the guides over the past few weeks and have no exposure might be a good day to get some cheap shares. ONDS 0.00%↑ earnings are on 3/25 and the vibes seem particularly bullish given recent partnerships and revenue expectations.

Hopefully we get a clear new direction on this conflict by the end of next week but unfortunately all signs point towards this conflict lasting much longer than people initially thought.

Bitcoin is holding up pretty well all things considered.

She is sitting right around the $70,000 range while Ethereum sits right around $2,100.

Alt and meme momentum from last week is stalled for now.

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Global Updates

Markets and global confidence are faltering today with multiple reports emerging of US President Donald Trump considering the use of ground troops in Iran. This would be literal worse case for our bags, and it is one of the reasons you are starting to see rumors of reinstating a draft float around online.

While no formal decision appears to have been made yet, the U.S. is already ramping up its military presence in the region, with additional troops and assets being positioned as a contingency. There are reports of as many as 15,000 marines en route to the region.

At the same time, we have discussions around potential strikes on critical infrastructure and key chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz that are beginning to surface, which would mark a significant escalation. Oil would likely go even higher.

It definitely seems confirmed at this point, this administration has bitten off more than it can chew.

via CBS news

• An Elbit ESLT 0.00%↑ factory was set ablaze in the Czech Republic by an "internationalist underground network" calling themselves the "the Earthquake Faction."

• The US Senate voted to block funding for DHS and TSA Friday

• Chuck Norris has died at the age of 86. It’s over bros

• Two suspected Iranian spies were arrested after attempting to enter Britain’s nuclear missile base (US Sun)

• US Attorney General Pam Bondi said on X this morning: “Today, we sued

  Harvard University for enabling and even encouraging antisemitism on its campus”

• The IEA warned this week that the Iran war is the biggest threat to global energy supply in history (BRICS News)

• Essex Police in the UK paused the use of live facial recognition cameras due to racial bias concerns (SkyNews)

• According to the French newspaper Le Monde, the near-exact location of the French aircraft carrier FS Charles de Gaulle (R91) was publicly exposed on March 13, when a naval officer utilized the online physical exercise tracker Strava to log his run on the deck of the carrier. Imagine (OSINT Defender)

• "At least 107 fuel stations across the state of New South Wales (NSW) in Australia have run out of diesel as panic buying has outstripped supply, premier Chris Minns said today” (ArgusMedia)

If you weren’t paying attention or on X today you might miss it but Secretary of War Pete Hegseth took to the internet to drop a very interesting update.

The Department of Defense is now extending the window for service members who were discharged (or left) over COVID-19 vaccine mandates to rejoin the US military through April 2027.

Interesting, despite his efforts to make it sound purely like an attempt to right a Biden era wrong.

Want to know what this suggests beneath the surface?

• If everything was fine from a manpower standpoint, this wouldn’t be necessary

• They want experienced personnel back quickly

• It is a subtle escalation prep signal

If I had to venture a guess, they’re going to do boots on the ground at some point. And the major concern there is that China and Russia see that as a major escalation and threat to their ambition in the region. It will be an absolute clusterf*ck.

But one day at a time.

Have a great weekend, not a bad time to just unplug from the chaos of the world right now and put your phone down. If anything super big goes down we will be sure to send out an emergency post.

See you guys next week for a look at airline stocks and a quick update on crypto.

Andy