When Things Go Kinetic
419: Israel Strikes Iran, Weekend of US Unrest
Size Lords welcome back and good morning.
Crazy week unraveling we have a recent announcement and post on truth social from Donald Trump suggesting that a Chinese deal may be struck with president Xi on tariffs, Israel and Iran are going at it, and of course we have the summer of love 2.0 that is unraveling in cities and towns across the US.
Additionally, we had the crypto market showing life with Ethereum rising rapidly, alt coins moving in tandem and meme coins, like Pepe heating up as well.
Then Israel decided it was time to flex on Iran — now oil, gold, and defense might be better bets….
Lots to cover today.
Worth noting:
If you missed Episode 32 of Risk On — we accurately predicted the Israeli strikes on Iran last night as well as the strikes on Nuclear infrastructure in Natanz. You can listen below, remember to leave a review if you guys enjoy, helps tremendously with the algo:
Additionally, premium subs had the chance to load up on Defense names on June 3rd when we dropped the timely Top 16 Defense Investments 2025 post. These are going to likely print today and next week. Stop missing out on these plays, this also comes on the heels of our MASSIVE PLTR 0.00%↑ call that made many of you a metric shit ton of money.
New plays will drop next week.
Israel Strikes Iran - What’s Next?
Nothing ever happens bros are in shambles this morning.
WWIII skeptics are wrecked.
Israel launched a massive pre-dawn airstrike campaign on Iran this week, targeting nuclear enrichment sites, IRGC leadership compounds, and key military infrastructure in what appears to be the most significant escalation in the region in decades.
Codenamed Operation Rising Lion, the strikes killed several top Iranian commanders and nuclear scientists, dealt a serious blow to Tehran’s atomic ambitions, and triggered immediate retaliation attempts—including over 100 drones launched at Israel (that all fell out of the sky lmao).
Oil prices surged, global markets reeled, and the threat of wider war now looms large over the Middle East as the world watches for Iran’s next move: China, Russia, Pakistan and Saudi Arab announce full support to Iran.
The attack was complex in nature and included:
Operations by Israeli Special Forces INSIDE Iran
Missile strikes into Tehran
Strikes on the Natanz Nuclear Facility in Central Iran
Strikes against Iranian air defense and radar systems
InsiderPaper is reporting that Mossad (Israeli Intelligence) built a secret explosive drone base in Iran just for this morning's operation according to an Israeli security source. In the video below you can see one of the strikes on Iranian air defense.
We are still waiting for some kind of reprisal from Iran and Iranian state media is saying at least 78 people were killed in the strikes on Tehran. To be honest it may not come soon as it seems like the offensive strikes from Israel has left Iran naked and unable to respond.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has said that Israel must expect "severe punishment" after the attacks.
We need to be aware of premature reports but so far it seems like the Israeli’s caught the Iranians mostly by surprise and crippled their ability to defend and/or launch any type of meaningful counter strike. I find it hard to believe Trump wasn’t aware of this even if the US isn’t publicly admitting to participation — some have proposed that Trump’s language surround the nuclear talks were a sort of decoy. Trump did say recently that some sort of deal was close, perhaps this was a diversionary tactic to catch Iran off guard.
If it was it worked lol.
This morning OSINT Defender and other accounts on X are reporting that there are new strikes now against surface-to-surface missile locations and depots near Tabriz, which is in Northwestern Iran.
The nuclear talks are off, Iran has said they will continue their nuclear program, and the US may be on the verge of getting involved in another conflict in the Middle East. Honestly the last thing we needed with the domestic unrest, Ukraine situation, and macro picture.
But the show goes on.
Polymarket polls are particularly interesting at the moment — with a current 38% chance of US military action against Iran before July — that gives us about 15 days. Not looking great for those of us who are against direct US involvement. Trump told ABC that the Israeli attacks on Iran "have been excellent" and "there's more to come. A lot more."
To be blunt — there will be people who critique Israel on these strikes and ANY US involvement or support. I am sympathetic to some of these arguments given the resounding and comical “seal clapping” many US politicians have for this event (Lindsey Graham) with little understanding of the implications.
I don’t want to get involved in another Middle East debacle, that being said if I was Israel I would strike Iran 100%. Two things can be true — a nuclear Iran is bad for everybody, and the US shouldn’t get involved in another war in the Middle East.
Let me know what you guys think in the comments.
Riots & Protests This Weekend
Protests and riots stemming from the original immigration demonstrations in Los Angeles are rapidly spreading across the United States.
On Wednesday protests erupted in New York City, Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta and other cities, keep in mind that additional protests are planned this weekend to coincide with the US Army anniversary celebration on Saturday, June 14. In Risk On we talked about how the most prolific ad for “No Kings” in the NYT was run by Walmart heiress and billionaire Christy Walton. You can see below all of the locations across the US where these protests are planned.
We are entering treacherous territory in this country at the moment as many of you know from our past posts. The rise of the militant left is something that I have documented and called out for several months now dating as far back as April. These are very often NOT peaceful protests.
Many people were likely skeptical that this would all come to fruition, particularly because nothing happened in the immediate aftermath of the election however, it is now clear not only are these protests and riots scaling rapidly across the country, but they're also obviously planned.
I know most people would rather focus on financial markets individual stock plays crypto pumps, and finance news, but the reality is these protests are a major issue in this country that are going to have a ripple effect on society and on many of our daily lives in the coming months.
Events like Covid, the war in Ukraine, the heightened political environment in the United States, as well as a growing numbers of domestic protests related to the conflict in the Middle East and well as other social issues our key events in our countries history and are going to end up, shaping the direction that this country ultimately takes relationship with other countries across the world.
Because of this, I'm not gonna shy away from it, even though it might be unpopular or some might construed as Doomer like content, if your goal is to stay informed on what is actually happening in this country, this is something that will garner the appropriate attention and consideration.
Be safe this weekend — if the demonstrations are half of what’s shown on the NoKings it could get dicey.
Markets Update
Unfortunately our market rally in crypto and tech is probably going to falter for a bit now, although early data shows retail apeing the dip already. Crypto particularly lost a significant amount of positive momentum on news of the Israeli strikes.
The biggest story in markets to wrap up this week is likely oil — oil prices surged over the past 12 hours following Israel’s strike on Iran, with Brent crude spiking as much as 8% before settling around $74. U.S. WTI crude saw similar action, briefly pushing above $77 before pulling back slightly.
The move marks one of the largest single-day jumps in recent years, driven by fears of supply disruptions and instability in the Strait of Hormuz. Energy stocks also rallied on the news, while broader markets turned risk-off as investors weighed the potential for a wider conflict and stagflationary ripple effects.
Defense names we’ve highlighted like LHX 0.00%↑ RTX 0.00%↑ and LMT 0.00%↑ are up today. I have a few oil option plays doing well on top of that with my biggest position in PBR 0.00%↑ .
Tesla (TSLA) dipped about 2.2%, trading near $319, pulled lower by broader equity softness and ongoing concerns over electric vehicle demand trends
Bitcoin (BTC) fell over the week from highs above $108 K to around $105 K, dropping nearly 4%, as Middle East tension prompted a risk-off sentiment dampening crypto demand
Ethereum (ETH) underperformed Bitcoin, sinking approximately 7% amid similar flight-to-safety movements and waning DeFi optimism
XRP dropped beneath its 50-day moving average (~$2.26), losing about 5%, signaling increasing potential for a further correction
Dogecoin and other altcoins saw declines: DOGE down around 8% and SOL off nearly 9%, reflecting wider retracement in crypto markets
U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year-over-year in May with a modest 0.1% monthly increase—soft data that is fueling renewed bets on one or two Fed rate cuts happening potentially later this year
PPI (Producer Price Index) came in cooler than expected, further reinforcing expectations that inflation pressures are ebbing despite tariffs, helping support bond-market optimism around rate easing
I will be opportunistically buying some stuff on the dip — likely Ethereum, some alt coins as well as ramping up some of my domestic unrest bets like SWBI 0.00%↑ OLN 0.00%↑ .
Bottom line — I wouldn’t do anything rash out of fear or panic that this gets bigger. US strikes on Iran would definitely move us a bit lower but hopefully the Israeli initiative limits the capability of Iran to respond and make this a larger drawn out conflict.
Enjoy the weekend — stay safe and I will see all of you on Monday/Tuesday. Hop in the discord or follow on X if you want to keep on top of developments over the weekend.
Andy
Gemini Crypto - Get Free Bitcoin
Gemini - Crypto Credit Card (Cybertruck giveaway)
Protect Your Crypto with Trezor
Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before
Agree with your “two things can be right at once”. Obviously any mid-east war is concerning, however I, for one, will not lose any sleep for the Mullahs getting bitch slapped.
Couldn’t happen to a more deserving bunch.
Crazy that Iran was caught this off guard.