What I’ve Learned About Markets, Life, and the World
500: Arb Letter Edition #500
Good morning.
Today marks the 500th edition of Arb Letter.
I appreciate all 33,000+ of you who have joined this community!
I did some quick math - conservatively, based on average post length, 500 editions is the equivalent of 10 full length novels.
Pretty wild.
Never in a million years did I think I would spend the majority of the last 3 years writing, but it has been an endeavor that has opened many doors and it has also been cathartic.
I started my journey like many of you, went to high school, attended university, and entered the corporate world. Can’t really remember the exact moment when I started Arbitrage Andy on instagram (could have been in a bathroom stall at lunch) but it was a no brainer, I was never the locked in NPC corporate type that focused 120% on my job.
I needed a creative outlet.
I started posting finance, Wall Street, and markets content and the account took off. In my early 20’s I had the experience of owning and running a viral meme account. At the same I was in sales and trading at a small shop in New York, in my prime, having fun, and being a reckless degenerate.
It was fun to post content about what I was doing (no matter how obnoxious or insufferable it was) - buying a new pair of bit loafers, Hermes ties, heading out to Montauk, destroying Murray Hill with some friends, heading to a conference in Florida.
I had never been more plugged into corporate than that time stretch, 5 days in the office, working 8-6ish on most days, and solely focused on bonuses.
Life was good!
But around 2020 something changed/shifted in the world.
Two events in my mind, fractured our world in a similar way to 9/11.
The BLM/Antifa/Election unrest of 2020 and Covid.
At this time something cracked. I think people looked around and said, this is not normal, this is the simulation fizzling out and showing us how close we are to unchecked chaos and unrest at any point in time. This was the time when many people realized institutions and the systems that govern over us a.) will brazenly lie and b.) do not have our best interest at heart.
I changed drastically as a person through those years.
In 2022 I decided to expand my online presence and I started Arb Letter. Initially we dropped free run downs of markets and global news, the most crucial things folks needed to stay on top of must know events.
Then we offered a premium version, one in which I could dive deeper into markets, social issues, geopolitics, life, and making money. It took off and we quickly became a Substack best seller.
Turned out there were people that shared my views, opinions, and concern on where the world was and is heading.
We have all lived through the same simulation the last 10 years:
Covid
Lockdowns
Stimulus waves
Inflation
Wealth divergence
Crypto cycles
Culture wars
AI acceleration
Shifts in geopolitical power
Some people have become MORE entranced, MORE determined to ignore the obvious around them.
Others, like the majority you guys, understand what’s taken place and where things are going.
Fast forward to 2025 and our world now looks much different than it did in 2001, 2010, or even 2015.
It can get depressing and disheartening focusing on all the negative changes and disruption, but today I want to focus on the future, on what we can control and how I am thinking about everything.
Arb Letter spawned from these societal and cultural changes to bring clarity and sense to a shifting world. To remind people that they aren’t crazy and it’s not just them — things are changing rapidly and require you to adapt to succeed and overcome what lies before us.
Above all else you need information to inform decisions. Information that has not fallen prey to doctoring, censorship, or rose colored lenses.
Today we’re reviewing lessons and pointers on what I’ve learned through the last decade, but we’ll also refresh on where we stand right now on pivotal topics:
Markets, Money, and Making It - must have assets for the coming years, how to play the downtrends, and how to build yourself up so you are resilient in any economic future.
Politics, Society, Where The World is Trending - I don’t need to tell you this isn’t the world your parents or grandparents grew up in. It takes rational, objective acknowledgement of where things are trending to ensure you can navigate political turmoil, where society is headed, and what the truth really is in a world full of lies, bullsh*t, and noise
Personal Development - With more and more technology and modern comfort, there are more distractions, unfulfilling side paths, and cheap fixes. Nearly everyone asks themselves at one point in time, “Am I doing what I am meant to do?” or “is this it?”
We have an upcoming Fed meeting with odds converging for no change and a 25bps cut on Polymarket (you can view here). The consensus seems to be a 25bps cut that could get us closer to an easing regime and hopefully send risk assets higher, but prediction markets seem less sure of this. Many are calling for a bubble or recession soon.
We have mid terms next year in a highly contested political climate where issues like immigration, crime, and the economy are going to be major drivers of the outcome we see. If New York’s mayoral race is any indication, young people may sway the direction the country is taking.
On a personal development level young people seem unhappy across the board. Dating for example, is so bad Bill Ackman himself took to X to recommend men simply approach women and say “can I meet you?”. The human element seems far removed from day to day interactions for many people. Others are stuck in jobs they hate, feel lost or misled, or want to make a major change in the trajectory of their lives.
Let’s cut through the noise and cover exactly how we should be thinking about all of it today.
I appreciate you guys joining me on the journey this far — Arb Letter is just getting started.
Let’s get into edition #500.
“We are what we repeatedly do. Excellence, then, is not an act, but a habit”
—Aristotle
Markets, Money, and Making It
At the moment money, markets, and ensuring financial freedom are a pressing topic for many people.
And I see it in my work — our posts centered on these topics are ALWAYS the most popular and with good reason.
Things are not getting easier.