War, AI, and the Death of Normal Markets
351: Anthropic's Mythos, Masters Drama, Trump's Crash Out
Good morning and happy Masters week to those who celebrate.
Things have been moving very quickly the last month so if you missed any of the guides or posts that we’ve put out make sure to just go back to the archive where you can find them all.
We dropped a follow up to our regular Online Money guides earlier this week. If you are growing tired of corporate, your job, or just not making enough money, I highly suggest you read it. It’s well worth your time.
In fact it’s the greatest antidote to escaping a company and world where the below exchange that went viral on X is normalized. Can you imagine the levels of soy? The levels of sheer corporate tele tubby slop?
I don’t even have words for this lol.
So fucking glad I won’t deal with these types of people ever again and it’s because I started making a living online. That wouldn’t have been possible without starting, so stop putting it off if you
Markets & Asset Performance
If you are getting tired of the constant back and forth in markets and headlines I can assure you that you are not alone.
I am kind of over all of it.
President Trump’s statements have gotten more and more wild/hyperbolic, you have Iran simultaneously denying things and agreeing to them, and you have other regional players making things confusing as well.
The latest was that some sort of peace deal or temporary cease fire was struck earlier this week on the heels of Trump’s insane “ending an entire civilization tweet”.
But then he pulled off a deal, or at least we were told he did.
And so just like that we are back into the TACO/flip flop version of markets and reality. Then the Israelis blew the cease fire off and carpet bombed Lebanon with over 100 air strikes. Iran is running their mouth again and the market surge that came from the “cease fire” is just slipping.
My take is it doesn’t really matter WHAT is happening anymore so long as it doesn’t involve a tactical nuclear weapon or American boots on the ground.
We just wait now.
Trump cannot keep this up into midterms. As of this morning the Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Strait of Hormuz is blocked. We know based on the Citrini Research post and other data points, Iran is letting ships through on a case by case basis, charging high premiums (some in crypto) for safe passage.
Make sure you check out the new Polymarket post on The Oracle by Polymarket where they interview @CRUDEOIL231 on X, a portfolio manager for the hedge fund arm of a commodities fund. Some great insights into the Iran conflict so far.
US CPI data came in at 3.3%, lower than expectations
February PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, ended up unchanged at 2.8%, in-line expectations of 2.8% and core PCE inflation fell to 3.0%, in-line with expectations of 3.0%. This is the last “pre Iran” print (Kobeissi Letter)
Citadel’s Ken Griffin said this week that Data Center spend this year alone could surpass $500B
Oil prices have surged back over $100
DIS 0.00%↑ Disney is planning to eliminate as many as 1,000 positions in the coming Weeks (WSJ/Zerohedge)
U.S. energy inflation soared +10.9% in March, the biggest monthly increase since 2005 (Polymarket)
Anthropic dropped one of the more important AI developments of the year this week with its new model, Claude Mythos and they’re not releasing it publicly.
This isn’t just a better chatbot. It can autonomously find and exploit software vulnerabilities across major systems, effectively turning AI into an offensive cyber tool (which sent cyber stocks tumbling this week). In testing, it uncovered thousands of zero day bugs, some decades old, and showed how easily these exploits could be chained together. The bigger shift here is the collapse in the skill barrier to be frank.
What once required elite hackers can now be prompted, massively scaling cyber offense.
Instead of releasing it, Anthropic is giving limited access to 12 major tech firms, financial institutions, and government partners to patch vulnerabilities, which tells you everything about how serious this is.
Zooming out, this is the industrialization of cyber warfare where we have AI scanning, finding, and exploiting weaknesses at scale while defenders scramble to keep up. The market hasn’t fully priced this in yet, but policymakers are starting to pay attention, with the Federal Reserve reportedly holding a meeting shortly to discuss the implications of advanced AI driven cyber risk on financial stability.
Some things worth paying attention to in equities:
Unusual Whales highlighted that Representative Josh Gottheimer has disclosed up to $1 million in Microsoft call options expiring June 2026. Gottheimer is a former MSFT 0.00%↑ executive. Guy has access to all kinds of AI/cyber briefings. MSFT 0.00%↑ was a name we highlighted two weeks ago
Quiver Quantitative on X reported that Representative Byron Donalds has filed some new trades including $30,000 of Paypal PYPL 0.00%↑ stock. He sits on the House Financial Services Committee.
I am okay watching markets this week, and do not feel compelled to make any rash moves besides adding some MSFT 0.00%↑ AXON 0.00%↑ ONDS 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑.
In my humble opinion, the bias leans bullish. I very much believe markets want to go higher. They’re just still working out how this Iran debacle can be resolved in the short term.
Ultimately I anticipate that the market gets bored of Iran headlines like it eventually did during the tariff rants by Trump. You can only crater markets off new escalation headlines so many times before people stop caring.
For the better part of the last year, markets were driven by a narrow set of narratives including AI, liquidity, and the assumption that macro risks could be ignored. That’s shifted entirely.
Geopolitical conflict is creeping back into the equation, energy is reasserting itself as a key input/risk, and volatility is being repriced after a period of complacency, but I still think this is all in the rear view mirror soon.
Crypto
Bitcoin made a sneaky move higher leading into the purported cease fire this week, reaching the $72,000 range before cooling off a bit today. Crypto extreme fear gauges have been cranking for weeks and weeks now.
The space is a ghost town on social media.
Which SHOULD excite you if you are underexposed.
Institutions continue to build in silence. We even had a Canary PEPE ETF pop up this week and the announcement Trump will be hosting a meme coin conference. BlackRock and other major issuers saw continued inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs this week.
A U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filing showed proposed “Canary Pepe ETF” under a new S-1 registration statement
President Trump is set to host a meme coin conference at Mar-a-Lago later this month (Polymarket)
Coinbase COIN 0.00%↑ expanded its derivatives offering and international push, highlighting the ongoing shift of trading activity offshore amid U.S. regulatory pressure
Japan approved a bill that will regulate Bitcoin and crypto as financial instruments, Japan's Nikkei reports (Bitcoin Magazine)
The latest on the Clarity Act is that momentum is picking back up, but it’s still stuck in political limbo.
The bill aims to clearly define whether crypto assets fall under SEC or CFTC jurisdiction and establish a proper market structure framework, and while it already cleared the House with bipartisan support, progress in the Senate has slowed over disagreements around stablecoins and broader regulatory control.
Then we have pressure building from policymakers to get something passed, with growing concerns that regulatory uncertainty is pushing capital and innovation offshore. The takeaway is simple in my mind, there’s real urgency, but with politics in the way, the window to pass meaningful crypto legislation in the U.S. might be narrowing.
Got to get errrr done. I will be watching BTC/ETH closely as this consolidation phase seems promising.
Political Fractures
There’s been some pretty strange rifts in US politics that I think are worth covering today.
Unless you live under a rock you’ve realized the “right” in the US has begun to fracture a bit. You have one group of people that are growing increasingly frustrated with President Trump’s actions so far and another group that truly believe him and his administration can do no wrong.
Objectively we have seen a deviation from what was talked about and in some cases, promised by Trump, during his campaign. There’s been no mass deportations. We have a new war, after being promised none. There was an abandonment from the fraud persecution and emptying of the swamp. Nobody was really charged, the ICE raids have eased up, insider trading is rampant, virtually nothing changed.
Nothing was done about Epstein and I think most folks (even self proclaimed right wingers) would agree with me that Trump’s cabinet and administration is full of some people who are proving to be absolute clowns.
It’s a stark reminder that politics is all largely the same.
And I said this ALL LAST YEAR. No one man, let alone Trump, was going to save us.
But in my opinion, and this still hasn’t changed despite my current critiques, he was and is the better option than Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. The collapse of the US into full blown marxism and ruin was delayed temporarily (key word temporarily).
But I have to be honest am not sure what’s worse at this point.
Neo cons starting new wars and enriching themselves while continuing to ignore critical domestic issues and the interest of the American people
Or
Leftist lunatics continuing to import millions of illegals, engage in lawfare and persecution of political opponents, and spreading cultural marxist doctrine throughout society
The core problem I have with trying to air out the issues with Trump’s performance thus far, is the strong bias opponents of his have. They utterly hate the guy. There is no situation where they would EVER condemn Barack Obama or Biden for doing the same thing in Iran.
The majority are not interested in nuance, so the second you say “I’m disappointed in this specific decision or action by Trump” they come frothing at the mouth saying “SEE I TOLD YOU SO!!!!!! He’s HITLER!!!!!! He’s a FASCIST!!!!!!!”.
There’s no two way discussion to be had. Which is unfortunate for the country.
In any case, the rift on the right is accelerating.
Yesterday Trump came out on Truth Social criticizing major conservative influencers, some of whom have traditionally supported him or interacted with him in positive manners:
I know why Tucker Carlson, Megyn Kelly, Candace Owens, and Alex Jones have all been fighting me for years, especially by the fact that they think it is wonderful for Iran, the Number One State Sponsor of Terror, to have a Nuclear Weapon — Because they have one thing in common, Low IQs. They’re stupid people, they know it, their families know it, and everyone else knows it, too! Look at their past, look at their record. They don’t have what it takes, and they never did! They’ve all been thrown off Television, lost their Shows, and aren’t even invited on TV because nobody cares about them, they’re NUT JOBS, TROUBLEMAKERS, and will say anything necessary for some “free” and cheap publicity. Now they think they get some “clicks” because they have Third Rate Podcasts, but nobody’s talking about them, and their views are the opposite of MAGA — Or I wouldn’t have won the Presidential Election in a LANDSLIDE. MAGA agrees with me, and just gave CNN a 100% Approval Rating of “TRUMP,” not Hand Flailing Fools like Tucker Carlson, who couldn’t even finish College, he was a broken man when he got fired from Fox, and he’s never been the same — Perhaps he should see a good psychiatrist!
Or Megyn Kelly, who nastily asked me the now famous, “Only Rosie O’Donnell,” question, or “Crazy” Candace Owens, who accuses the Highly Respected First Lady of France of being a man, when she is not, and will hopefully win lots of money in the ongoing lawsuit. Actually, to me, the First Lady of France is a far more beautiful woman than Candace, in fact, it’s not even close! Or Bankrupt Alex Jones, who says some of the dumbest things, and lost his entire fortune, as he should have, for his horrendous attack on the families of the Sandy Hook shooting victims, ridiculously claiming it was a hoax. These so-called “pundits” are LOSERS, and they always will be! Now Fake News CNN, The Failing New York Times, and all of the other Radical Left “News” Organizations, are “hailing” them, and giving them “positive” press for the first time in their lives.
They’re not “MAGA,” they’re losers, just trying to latch on to MAGA. As President, I could get them on my side anytime I want to, but when they call, I don’t return their calls because I’m too busy on World and Country Affairs and, after a few times, they go “nasty,” just like Marjorie “Traitor” Brown, but I no longer care about that stuff, I only care about doing right for our Country. MAGA is about WINNING and STRENGTH in not allowing Iran to have Nuclear Weapons. MAGA is about MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN, and these people have no idea how to do that, BUT I DO, because THE UNITED STATES IS NOW THE “HOTTEST” COUNTRY ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD! President DONALD J. TRUMP
Pretty wild and the common thread here is these influencers opposition and criticism of his actions in Iran. Why aren’t we allowed to criticize the Iran involvement? Seems like these influencers and pundits struck some sort of nerve in Trump…..
It’s honestly hilarious watching the flip flopping on pro war anti war camps over the years.
I don’t have to spell out for most of you WHY we are in Iran. The nuclear weapons excuse is lazy and sounds just like Bush 2.0. It’s quite clear we are there to support Israel and likely advance the financial interests of involved parties.
Same shit from the past and it’s happening during a time where most Americans want key issues resolved at home.
If this streak continues I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a blow out in mid terms for Democrats and continued momentum for the next presidential election.
Masters Drama
The Masters Tournament is underway this week at Augusta National Golf Club, with the first round teeing off Thursday and the tournament running through Sunday. As always, it’s one of the most iconic stops in golf, blending elite competition with unmatched tradition.
Heading into the week, Scottie Scheffler sits as the clear favorite, with Rory McIlroy and Jon Rahm close behind.
The early Masters storyline this morning isn’t even about golf, it’s a full-blown culture clash.
Jason Kelce being inserted into coverage at Augusta instantly rubbed people the wrong way, with fans calling it too loud and out of place for one of the most tradition heavy events in sports.
If you had any doubts that “Tradition” and “Heritage” are large social phenomenons right now (and big business opportunities) let them disappear for good.
People are tired of pop culture, loud crass entertainment, and attacks on institutions known for professionalism and elite performance.
At the same time, the broader Kelce circus, from podcast jokes to celebrity crossover moments involving Travis Kelce, has people questioning whether the Masters is drifting toward a more entertainment driven product.
What’s happening at Augusta is really just a microcosm of a much bigger shift. You’re seeing a growing divide between audiences that want polished, high trust, tradition-driven environments and platforms that are optimizing for engagement at all costs.
I don’t really care either way but in a strange way, the backlash is a key signal. It shows that not everything can or should be turned into content. And for investors, operators, or anyone building a brand or business, that’s a powerful takeaway to consider moving forward.
Other Headlines
U.S. fertility rate falls to a record low of 53.1 births per 1,000 women ages 15–44, the lowest ever recorded by the CDC (Gemini)
A massive chimpanzee group in Uganda has reportedly split into rival factions and descended into a deadly “civil war” (Polymarket) You can follow updates here including the status of alpha male chimps in battle
The Justice Department has opened an investigation into the NFL over “anticompetitive tactics that harm consumers”
The scumbag criminal Decarlos Brown Jr. who murdered Iryna Zarutska on a train in Charlotte was found incompetent to stand trial this week
U.S. Border Patrol apprehended four “British” nationals after they crossed illegally into Maine from Canada through a remote area. The individuals were identified as Ali Mohammed Ali Abdullah, Hameed Mohammed Nagi, Ibrahim Ayyub Khan, and Mohammed Sultan Saleh (Open Source Intel/Bill Melugin)
All eligible young men aged 18–25 will be automatically registered for the U.S. military draft starting December 2026 (Global Eye News)
Have a great weekend guys. Hopefully it’s a quiet one as the weather begins to turn for the better. I will see you all on X and Discord. IF you have questions on the online money post from Tuesday just shoot me a note, happy to discuss products, websites, etc.
Andy
Follow Us on X for More Live Updates
Join the Arbitrage Andy Discord
Arbitrage Andy Shop
Monitor the Situation on Polymarket
Disclaimer - I am a monkey brained former salesman and trader who enjoys writing about crypto, markets, and global events. None of this is to be considered formal financial advice. Always invest in accordance with your own personal risk tolerance and thresholds in mind. God speed.