Verdansk Casual Mode > Modern America

399: Weekly Market Insights, Domestic Unrest on Rise

Happy Friday lords.

Market’s closed today but wanted to get a recap out for the week. Next week on Monday or Tuesday I will be dropping a spicy written piece as a follow up to this week’s episode of Risk On in which I discussed the murder of Austin Metcalf, growing political violence in the US, and some of the trends I think are worth keeping an eye on as we move into warmer months ahead.

For those of you who missed the 2025 Watch Review you can find it below.

On a side note — I dropped back into Verdansk with the boys for the first time since Covid — if you have no clue what I am talking about, I am referring to the revamp of Call of Duty Warzone Verdansk, the original map the game dropped when we were all working remotely during Covid and doing jack shit. Those were some great days.

One of the biggest critiques of COD in recent year (and I whole heartedly agree) is that it’s become far too sweaty, with adderall infused unemployed maniacs making the game less fun with twitchy movements, hacks, and generally spastic gameplay. This time around they’ve introduced a casual mode, which is what I dabbled in last night. The mode was a bit like DMZ if you remember that from the last COD, with some AI enemies mixed into a regular Battle Royale map — it was a great time for a 32 year old dad with 2 hours to burn before bed and less time to play or to keep up with the zoomer sweats ruining the franchise I love. The time to kill is shorter and they’ve made some minor adjustments to movement.

The one thing I will say is that it’s VERY casual until you get to the final circle of 10-20 players — I was absolutely stuffing brand new noobs who were running around with no clue what they were doing which was a great change of pace to the last 2 years when I would get killed by a Nicki Minaj skinned operator running around with a meat cleaver and slide canceling.

Highly recommend if you guys have the itch or time this weekend. It seems Treyarch took SOME feedback into consideration on this update.

---

Markets

U.S. equity markets ended Thursday on a mixed note heading into the long holiday weekend. The S&P 500 inched higher, while the Nasdaq closed slightly lower and the Dow took a heavier hit, dragged down by a collapse in UnitedHealth shares.

• S&P 500: Up 0.1%

• Dow: Down 1.3%

• Nasdaq: Down 0.1%

• Russell 2000: Up 0.9%

On the week, the major indices remained broadly in the red — with the Dow shedding nearly 3%, and the Nasdaq and S&P both down more than 1%. Small caps were the standout, with the Russell 2000 climbing over 1% for the week.

Notable Movers

• UnitedHealth plunged 22%, its worst single-day drop in over two decades, after slashing its full-year outlook.

• Eli Lilly jumped 14% on positive results from its weight-loss drug trial.

• Taiwan Semiconductor added 3% on strong earnings and AI demand.

• Nvidia came under pressure, dealing with a multibillion-dollar hit from export restrictions to China.

Other News

• China has stopped buying liquefied gas from the US (Financial Times/Unusual Whales)

• Trump’s tariffs expected are expected to raise new-home costs by $9,200 (NYP)

Fed Chair Powell stayed cautious this week, signaling no rush to cut rates. Meanwhile, Trump stepped up pressure on the central bank, accusing Powell of playing politics. Trade talks with Japan are reportedly gaining traction, but chipmakers are still feeling the sting from tensions with China.

Markets are closed Friday for Good Friday. Next week will be a big one — earnings from Tesla, Boeing, Alphabet, and Intel are on deck, and key economic data could set the tone heading into May.

Polymarket Poll

Tension is growing between Jerome Powell and Donald Trump, Trump is calling for rate cuts and Powell remains consistent on his fiscal plans holding off on any action until the market provides him with more clarity.

Polymarket odds right now are at an 18 chance that JPOW gets removed before year end — the highest odds since January.

We will have to see what happens, but if Trump can pull it off my money is on him edging out Jerome.

After weeks of tariff tit-for-tat and rising tensions, there are now hints that the U.S. and China may reopen lines of communication. Trump has said a deal is coming — “Oh we’re going to make a deal” — and claims Chinese officials have reached out multiple times.

Beijing hasn’t confirmed anything yet but has signaled it’s open to talks — if the U.S. puts forward a clear lead negotiator and shows respect on key issues like sanctions and Taiwan.

No meeting is on the calendar, but both sides appear to be laying the groundwork, expect a big bump in equities if this is confirmed — primarily tech. While the short term in Asia is unclear, I have been adding slowly to my long term BABA 0.00%↑ position. Xi just wrapped up a diplomatic tour through Southeast Asia, and Trump’s team is weighing its next move. Markets will be watching closely — even the slightest hint of dialogue could move sentiment quickly.

I am confident a deal with China will be the hardest to land, but deals with other countries would likely close in rapid succession if this happens.

Crypto

Crypto markets held steady heading into the weekend, with Bitcoin and Ethereum trading in tight ranges as traders remain cautious.

The longer Bitcoin remains over $80,000 the higher the chance we see another bull run in 2025 in my opinion — the big money maker for most if this is the case is going to be alt coins. In a perfect world tariffs ease, deals are truck, and we see some dovish rhetoric from the Fed that instills confidence in risk on assets again.

When that time looks like it is approaching I will drop an in depth post on the alts I am going to position in. For now we need to wait, which isn’t fun. If you want to get ahead of the curve start reading about these projects now.

A few good pieces I would point you to include:

Chainlink Goes Big: The Engine Behind $20 Trillion Tokenization With Top Firms

Web3 ai Could Be the Strategic Advantage, While AAVE Launches Buybacks & Mantle Targets $5

Beyond Bitcoin: An Investor's Guide to the Altcoin Landscape

• Bitcoin hovered just below $85,000, showing a slight bounce off intraday lows but struggling to break out.

• Ethereum stayed flat around $1,600, still stuck under its 50-day moving average — if you love pain you love ETH

• Global crypto market cap rose slightly to $2.76 trillion, with Bitcoin dominance holding near 64%.

• Solana, Render, and Hype caught a decent bid, signaling pockets of strength in the altcoin space.

• Bitcoin ETFs saw $170M in net outflows Thursday, while Ethereum ETFs saw roughly $12M pulled — signs that institutional sentiment at the moment is cooling slightly after a decent Q1. Blackrock has been buying with total ETF buys over $50M for the week

• Vietnam’s Finance Ministry has partnered with Bybit to launch a crypto trading pilot and build a legal framework for its massive crypto user base.

• The regulatory tone is starting to ease, with the Fed hinting at a lighter touch for banks involved in crypto and stablecoins.

---

Global News

The US was rocked by another school shooting this time in Florida — two people were killed and at least six others were injured.

The shooter has been identified as Phoenix Ikner — an FSU student and the son of a Leon County sheriff’s deputy. Authorities are reporting he used one of his mother’s firearms to carry out the mass shooting on Thursday. The shooting is once again sparking conversations about firearms restrictions and gun control nationwide.

In the aftermath of the murder of Austin Metcalf at a track meet in Texas, we are seeing an absurd PR campaign from the legal team and family of the charged killer Karmelo Anthony. Yesterday in a press conference the lawyer (whop has a length rap sheet himself) for Anthony not only asked the father of Metcalf to leave the event, but proceeded to say how it was “disrespectful” for him to show up and then went on a rant about black struggles in America. Talk about tone deaf — can you imagine if this was your son?

Reports are also surfacing that a Swatting call (a fake call made to police to induce a violent response on a homeowner) was made on the home of Metcalf’s father as well.

It keeps getting worse.

This case and others like it are happening amid a growing trend of political violence — a pro Palestine advocate fire bombed Governor Josh Shapiros home earlier this week over his stances on Israel. At Kent State, the image below was shared on social media.

Violence is becoming a normal occurence in the US this year and if I had to venture a guess I would say domestic unrest akin to the BLM/Antifa riots is on the way soon if we don’t see some sort of measures taken to slow it all down. We never really got the violence and unrest many expected leading up to the 2024 election, but the tension is still evident.

As I said on Monday or Tuesday I will be dropping a written piece to expand on the Risk On episode this week that examines the growing prevalence of violence in the US. This piece will have Arrakis level spice so make sure to tune in as it has been a while since I dropped a political piece.

Have a great weekend guys — talk to you next week.

Andy

GET 10% OFF ALP NICOTINE POUCHES

Gemini Crypto - Get Free Bitcoin

Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before investing and ensure you have a good understanding of your personal risk tolerance.