Venezuela Super Post
519: Asset Picks, Geopolitical Implications, Oil, and More
Good morning and welcome to the first full week of 2026.
We have a ridiculous amount to cover today.
On Friday in the dead of night the US executed an absolutely textbook strike on Venezuela, capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife while taking zero casualties or any lost aircraft.
They also apparently took out over 30 members of Maduro’s guard in the process, which was comprised of mostly Cubans.
Without a doubt one of the most impressive special operations missions of all time.
This is a defining moment for the second Trump administration but it also has deep implications for the world stage and relations with our allies (and foes).
Let’s look at the last several days.
We have:
Oil prices dumping and oil majors ripping in the aftermath of Venezuela
Defense names like PLTR 0.00%↑ PPA 0.00%↑ LMT 0.00%↑ are soaring (hope you read the last paid guide)
Establishment media and globalists denouncing the raid as illegal
Russia, China, and Iran all issuing statements denouncing the raid
Markets reacting positively
Odds of new regime change globally are boosting, just check out the Polymarket odds now on regime change in Iran
Gold has surpassed the US Dollar as the largest Global Reserve Asset
There’s quite a bit to cover so first we will review everything we know about the daring raid and the elite warriors who finessed Venezuelan security forces. Then we will move onto the political and economic implications, and we will wrap up with how this impacts markets, crypto, defense, energy, etc. We will review some key names and tickers we are long.
It’s going to be an insane year if this week is any indication.
Let’s get it.
Venezuela Raid
We knew something was coming. I detailed some of the implications and theories in our Arb Letter the afternoon before Trump’s address a few weeks ago. In retrospect it now appears that there was some clever deception afoot. Everyone expected Trump to formally announce action against Venezuela during his address but we got no such announcement.
Then weeks later in the new year while everyone is sleeping we launch an impeccable and daring raid that goes flawlessly and avoids any severe escalation or drawn out conflict in the region (for now).
U.S. special operations forces led by Delta Force carried out a surprise nighttime raid in Caracas to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife after months of intelligence gathering and rehearsal. The mission, supported by CIA surveillance on the ground, cyber operations, and air power, involved specialized aviation units (160th SOAR) and a large number of aircraft.
Operators breached Maduro’s fortified compound, secured both targets, and transported them into U.S. custody without any reported American fatalities, though some personnel were injured. Air defense, which media pointed to for months, was nonexistent.
My bet would be they were taken out with EA-18G Growlers (electronic warfare jets) or cyber capability on our end. There were also reports of power outages in Venezuela prior to the attack.
For those who might be shaky on their military knowledge, the raid was led by Delta Force. 1st Special Forces Operational Detachment–Delta (1st SFOD-D), also known as Delta Force or Combat Applications Group, is as tip of the spear as you get in the US military.
They handle counterterrorism, direct action, hostage rescue, and reconnaissance. If you’re confused because you’ve never heard of them, that’s kind of the point. I’d venture to say they are known more as silent professionals than their Navy counterparts in the SEAL teams.
Their structure is influenced strongly by the SAS in the UK and is reportedly organized into 6 squadrons with several support elements. Virtually all information about the unit is highly classified.
While it was reported counter drug agency individuals and maybe SEALs/Rangers were also involved in the operation, I’d be remiss to also not mention 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (SOAR), known as the "Night Stalkers”. This elite group facilitated transportation, insertion, and extraction for operators on this raid.
They are the US Army’s highly specialized aviation force and support special operations missions around the globe.
Woke & Globalist Outrage
Predictably leftists and wokesters are outraged by this.
The operation has triggered intense global debate, given that it involved the U.S. seizing a sitting foreign leader without formal congressional authorization.
It’s funny, leftists literally cannot NOT side against America. They simply hate Trump too much. You can have millions of Venezuelans cheering and happy with the ousting of a dictator and they will still find a way to side against “the greater good”.