US Special Forces in Mexico, DC Exodus, & Argentina’s Crypto Bloodbath
375: Welcome to 2025
Morning all
Good to be back in town this week — over the weekend I took a trek north to New Hampshire to do some rifle training, which is always lit af. Unfortunately got caught in a wild storm and barely made it home complete with freezing rain, lunatic semi truck drivers, and some heavy snow.
I’m juggling the idea of starting a new Substack within Arb Letter that covers more of the things I do in my personal life (they would be separate). While not everyone would have an interest in those topics, if you would shoot me a note and I will mull it over.
Would likely center around the outdoors, gym, shooting/fishing, the cooking I do, and other things I do in my spare time while not working on Andy and Arb Letter. If this interests you, see a sample piece in the latter half of today’s post covering the two day rifle and pistol class I took at one of the world’s leading training facilities for military, law enforcement, and civilians.
Looks like I missed quite a bit while I was out of town. Couple big updates and headlines today.
Thursday we will review financial markets.
US Special Forces & Cartel
This week Mexican government has approved the deployment of U.S. Special Forces to support efforts against drug cartels. As part of its efforts to secure the southern border, the Trump administration explored classifying Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations. This designation would allow for increased funding and access to additional resources, such as drones and intelligence-gathering platforms, to enhance operations against cartel activities.
We may now have the plot for Sicario 3.
The decision, backed by the country's leadership, allows a team of U.S. Army Green Berets to train Mexico's Naval Infantry Marines in both conventional and unconventional warfare tactics. The training is taking place at a naval facility in Campeche and is scheduled to run through March.
This collaboration is part of a broader strategy to strengthen Mexico’s defense capabilities against increasingly sophisticated cartel operations. The government has also intensified its anti-drug efforts by deploying thousands of National Guard troops to its northern border to curb fentanyl smuggling.
While some view this move as a necessary step in combating cartel violence, it also raises concerns about sovereignty and the long-term implications of foreign military involvement in domestic security operations — probably won’t be long before we get some major incidents breaking in Mexico and along the US border.
With the Trump administration placing a high priority on the Southern Border, Fentanyl trafficking, and US security I wouldn’t be surprised to see this evolve further into direction action in the region.
While it’s obvious that there is a high level of corruption in the Mexican government, it’s definitely a solid step to bring in US advisors and troops to try and help balance the scale in the region.
Elite Fleeing Washington DC?
Some interesting developments have been popping up in Washington DC in the wake of the government corruption being uncovered by DOGE and the rollout of the Trump administration. In addition to investigations, many federal agencies have had mandated layoffs implemented or buyouts offered by the Trump administration.
It’s been noted that there’s been an absurd amount of homes being put up for sale in the DC areas in the past several weeks — many of which are in the millions. On top of that Google Searches for interesting terms have been soaring in the region, including:
“Swiss Bank”
“Offshore Bank”
“Wire Money”
“Criminal defense lawyer”
“RICO law”
HERE you can see a thread done on some of the specific people who have listed homes. Pretty interesting.
The potential implication here, as Dennis from Always Sunny might say, is that USAID and other finance networks for Washington’s elite are no longer cutting checks to associates and key individuals and we are seeing an economic shock as a result.
Is it really that big of a stretch? The data says no.
This is not normal listing behavior for property in DC and some of these search term highlights are far from par for the course (also pretty dumb shit to google if you are guilty of something).
Adam and our friends at the Kobeissi Letter did some good analysis on the data. Listings accelerated after DOGE's federal employee buyout offer was announced. The offer pays employees through September 2025 if they quit, with 5%-10% of employees expected agree. As of this week, 65,000 federal employees have accepted the buyout offer, per WSJ.
We will need more data of course to draw a firm conclusion that we are seeing a panicked exit from DC by former entrenched bureaucrats feeding off US taxpayer money, but the initial signs are pretty convincing.
Perhaps the swamp really is being drained and the entire area was propped up by a bloated government economy that is finally getting some much deserved scrutiny and light shed upon it.
Insane Argentina Crypto Rug
Last week a new meme coin dropped and people lost their minds — this time the rumor was it was the official meme coin of Argentina. $LIBRA went vertical, and people piled in hoping to make absolute bandos.
But President Javier Milei is now facing political and legal turmoil after promoting $LIBRA. His endorsement of the token on X led to a rapid surge in its price, but within hours, it plummeted aggressively, causing significant losses for investors and retail apes. Following the backlash, Milei deleted his promotional post and denied any direct involvement with the project saying today “I didn't promote it, I shared it."
Lmao.
The situation has been widely criticized online and on X as a potential financial scam, with opposition figures accusing Milei of unethical conduct and calling for his impeachment. While the likelihood of impeachment probably remains low due to the required congressional majority in Argentina, the controversy has damaged his credibility and could impact upcoming legislative elections. It’s also sucked liquidity out of other coins and tokens, which sucks for most of us.
In response, the government has launched an internal review to assess any potential wrongdoing, and a federal judge is now overseeing a judicial investigation into possible fraud. The scandal has also had economic consequences, with Argentina’s stock market taking a hit as concerns grow about the country’s financial and political stability under Milei’s leadership.
This event is once again a good reminder that crime season is underway — for all of the innovation and opportunity that crypto provides, you also get debauchery and scams. If you’re quick enough, sure you can make money. But more often than not most people get massacred when these things eventually run.
My two cents? Avoid this shit like the plague and focus on the quality stuff (BTC/ETH/solid alts). Most people chasing these think they can get rich quick and instead blow their savings or rent and are forced to eat salami and lunchables for months before they can replenish their cash.
Weekend at Andy’s
A quick sample of the type of article I would include in a separate newsletter on Substack (as a sub section of Arb Letter). Let me know if you guys have interest in the comments — topics would be things of interest to me personally, cooking, outdoors activity, my hobbies, experiences, etc.
*this is not a sponsored post
This past weekend I drove up to north to take a rifle and pistol class at Sig Sauer Academy. For those unfamiliar — Sig Academy is a gun/tactical/outdoors enthusiast’s dream land. Located on over 140 acres in Epping, NH – the facility features state-of-the-art indoor and outdoor ranges, tactical training areas, urban environments, multiple shoot houses, a maritime training area, and a force-on-force village area. The academy regularly hosts SWAT teams, law enforcement, international and US military members, and civilians for top notch firearms, medical, and tactical training.
The instructors are phenomenal — ranging from ex Special Forces vets, to hardened law enforcement professionals, professional competition shooters, and more. You can check out some of the videos on Youtube.
Whenever I go there I’m grinning like a kid on Christmas.
This was my 3rd time visiting the academy. I woke up early at 4am last week, inhaled a venti iced coffee and upper decky spearmint zyn, turned on a good podcast, and made the peaceful drive to NH while most people were still sleeping.