UFO Sightings, Drone Stocks Mooning

533: FOMC Event, Gold Softening

Happy hump day and belated St Patrick’s day for those who partake.

Yesterday we dropped a piece on Drones, the future of warfare, and the companies worth keeping an eye on in the coming months and years if you want exposure to this growing global trend. I think we covered 15 or so tickers including ONDS 0.00%↑which seems to be pumping leading into earnings.

People keep DMing or messaging me asking for defense names or trade ideas. Guys, that’s the entire point of the deeper guides. I put out the plays ahead of time. Some, like PLTR 0.00%↑ AVGO 0.00%↑ or ONDS 0.00%↑ absolutely print.

Stop missing them and just subscribe brothers!

We will have another dropping Friday morning.

In addition to recent bullish momentum from their recent deal with Palantir and World View to build a next-gen AI-powered ISR, Ondas acquired INDO Earth Moving Ltd., expanding its footprint into critical infrastructure, logistics, and heavy equipment operations tied to defense and industrial use cases.

As part of its long-term strategy, Ondas plans to pursue future upgrades of engineering vehicles into robotic and autonomous platforms, integrating technologies such as remote operation, autonomous navigation, advanced perception systems, and mission automation software. The acquisition also creates strong synergies across Ondas' growing portfolio of autonomous defense technologies.

Make sure to watch it into week end. Just this morning Ondas and Heidelberg established the ONBERG Autonomous Systems Joint Venture, which they say is set to advance the European drone defense industry.

Today we’ve got a good amount to cover across crypto, global news, and markets.

And don’t worry I am storing up a solid schizo rant before month end as well. There’s enough content, that’s for sure. I will expand on it soon, but there’s a really strange blend of events/themes playing out online in the last two weeks or so:

• Retired Air Force major general William Neil McCasland, who had historical ties to UFO theories/projects (worked at the research lab at Wright-Patterson, some of the Pentagon's most advanced aerospace research), disappeared without a trace on February 27th. Check out TheSentinel post on Aerospace engineer Monica Jacinto Reza who was the co-inventor of a key U.S. rocket alloy and who worked under McCasland. She vanished while hiking in 2025.

• President Donald Trump said on February 20th that he's directing the Pentagon and other government agencies to identify and release files related to extraterrestrials and UFOs because of "tremendous interest." (AP/PBS)

• Strange comets have been reported being seen on various continents and over major cities including Los Angeles, New York City, Ohio, and Dallas

• Renewed online and media attention on Monday focused on files declassified in 2003 related to weather modification under US President Lyndon B Johnson. Long story short? Weather modification is real, the funding for this program under Johnson during Vietnam was 4X higher than people thought, and chemicals were released and sprayed into earth’s atmosphere (chemical seeding of hurricanes and monsoons)

Some folks think we are drifting towards some type of Covid level event. Except this time it’s not some Chinese bioweapon Fauci & Co. funded but potentially a new fear campaign. Drones, war with Iran, false flags, UFO “disclosures” from our government? I don’t really know.

But I can smell it coming a mile away.

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Equities & Markets

Heading into this morning’s PPI print, equity and capital markets were already on shaky footing, caught between a slight pullback in oil prices and growing concern that inflation wasn’t cooling as expected.

US PPI rose to 3.4% this morning putting a damper on any chance of upcoming rate cuts. Odds are now at 94% for no change on Polymarket.

There is only a 4.3% chance of a rate cut in April

At 2:30 p.m. ET, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will host the live FOMC press conference. Markets will be watching closely for any shift in tone around inflation and the path of rates, particularly whether the Fed signals it is closer to easing or remains firmly in a higher for longer stance.

• The US national debt reached a new all-time high of $39 trillion! Money printing will continue until morale improves (and then it will keep continuing forever!)

• The Chinese government has asked exporters to halt outbound shipments of nitrogen potassium fertilizer blends (Bloomberg/Unusual Whales)

• OpenAI has partnered with AMZN 0.00%↑ AWS to support cloud infrastructure for government contracts (Polymarket Money)

• The 30-Year Mortgage Rate jumped to 6.86%, the highest level since November (BarChart)

• Disney DIS 0.00%↑ CEO Bob Iger is set to resign

• 49% of U.S. residents struggle to pay rent or mortgages, per Redfin/Unusual Whales)

• US recession odds have hit 48.6%, the highest since the 2020 pandemic (Moody’s/Coin Telegraph)

• The Kobeissi Letter reported this morning that Iraq has said gas supplies from Iran have been completed halted following Israeli strikes on the South Pars gas field. This is the world's largest natural gas reserve and is jointly operated by Iran and Qatar. Natural gas is stabilizing around $3

I would expect some chop today which could be a solid opportunity to pick up some names you have been keeping an eye on.

Right now I am watching my ONDS 0.00%↑ calls which I intend to hold through earnings next week. Additionally I have added shares of $KRKNF. Outside that, I have added some AMD 0.00%↑ and AXON 0.00%↑.

Precious metals have been volatile this week, with the divergence between gold and silver highlighting how various macro forces are currently overpowering the typical “safe haven” narrative. Interesting to see Bitcoin decouple.

Gold has come under pressure primarily due to a stronger U.S. dollar and rising rate expectations, which increase the opportunity cost of holding any non yielding assets while putting a little damper on global demand.

At the same time, we have higher oil prices and hotter inflation data reinforcing a “higher for longer” Fed outlook.

Bitcoin Pumping & Alts Showing Some Life

The orange coin has gone on a nice little run (although it is softening right now) and crypto sentiment seems to be shifting quickly online.

Bitcoin has continued the ascent it has demonstrated throughout this Iran debacle, pumping up to the $76,000 level recently.

What is particularly interesting to see is Ethereum rallying. After lagging for much of the year, ETH is now starting to catch up aggressively, likely driven by a mix of capital rotating out of Bitcoin into higher beta plays, renewed institutional interest, and improving sentiment across altcoins. Well overdue. We will see if it continues.

On top of some solid price action, we continue to see some positives on the regulatory side as well. The regulatory tone around crypto continues to shift in a quietly bullish direction, with policymakers increasingly moving toward a “digital commodities vs securities” framework rather than treating the entire asset class as securities.

Assets that are deemed sufficiently decentralized, like Bitcoin and increasingly Ethereum, fall into what we call the “digital commodity” bucket, meaning lighter oversight, clearer rules, and far easier access for institutional capital (which is good).

This effectively creates a big green light for ETFs, pensions, and large allocators to gain exposure without the same traditional legal overhang that has suppressed the space for years. Ultra giga bullish kings.

Also. Some solid strength from HYPE, LINK, AVAX, and other alt coins over the last week or so. Could be a good time to begin preparing your shopping lists.

• PayPal officially enables stablecoin access in 70 countries

• Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see steady inflows, with hundreds of millions flowing in over the past week

• Mastercard is acquiring crypto infrastructure firm BVNK in a deal worth up to $1.8B

• BlackRock is pushing further into digital assets globally, including expanding Ethereum exposure and rolling out new crypto-linked products

• Trade.xyz on X (decentralized, non-custodial trading platform) announced this week: S&P Dow Jones Indices and trade[XYZ] have joined forces to launch the first official S&P 500 perpetual contract, available exclusively on Hyperliquid

• Binance saw a $2.2B USDT inflow, the largest since Nov 2025, per CryptoQuant (CoinTelegraph)

We will talk more about HYPE Hyperliquid on Friday.

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Global News & Geopolitics

The U.S. Israel conflict with Iran continues to escalate, with strikes now targeting critical energy infrastructure across the Middle East, including oil fields, ports, and gas facilities.

Oil is the big question and the headwind to equities breaking free in my opinion as prices have surged back above $100/$110 range, with a handful of pretty credible scenarios pointing to significantly higher levels if the supply disruptions persist.

Trump just issued a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act to attempt to curb oil prices. For those unfamiliar, the Jones Act requires that goods transported between U.S. ports be carried on U.S. built, U.S. owned, and U.S. crewed vessels, which significantly limits domestic shipping capacity and drives up costs.

• Joe Kent, Director if the National Counterterrorism Center said on X today: After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today. I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby

• Kim Jong Un won North Korea's parliamentary elections with 99.93% of the vote. We are all wondering what has happened to the .07% lmao

• U.S. airlines are now warning of rising cost pressure and potential disruptions, as jet fuel prices spike, with major carriers already reviewing forecasts and adjusting expectations (might be an interesting market play to be had here, stand by for an update next week)

• Europe is ramping defense spending further, with multiple NATO members accelerating procurement timelines and expanding budgets amid ongoing Russia concerns

• In South America, Argentina is pushing aggressive economic reforms, including currency liberalization and austerity measures

• Japan is continuing its military normalization, boosting defense budgets and expanding capabilities in response to regional threats

• There was a 6.0 magnitude earthquake in Cuba early yesterday morning

What was initially a contained exchange in the Middle East is now evolving into a broader regional confrontation, with increasing pressure on energy infrastructure and key shipping routes. At the same time, there are few clear signs of de escalation which sucks for the time being.

Diplomatic pathways appear limited, and both sides are signaling a willingness to continue operations, especially Iran. You have to admit that their delusional self confidence is impressive.

From a market perspective, escalation is obviously the key variable.

A reporter recently asked Trump recently:

“Are you afraid that if you put boots on the ground in Iran, it could be another Vietnam?”

And Trump responded "No, I'm not afraid of anything."

So it is not off the table and in my opinion, would be the worst case scenario barring a nuclear exchange.

I think markets are largely beginning to price a regime shift in global risk. A new reality if you will for the state of global affairs. Across that backdrop you have terrorism, new potential military activity by the US (Cuba?), and upcoming midterms in the United States.

Going to be a volatile second half of 2026.

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Random side note as I take down another two shots of espresso and pop a nice peppermint upper decky. Two of the best things I ever did:

• Deleting LinkedIn

• Paying an accountant to do taxes

Imagine putting this on Linkedin lmao

See you guys Friday morning. Make sure to follow on X and on Discord if you want to keep up with the latest trade ideas and news updates we are all following.

Andy