Trade Deals Close, Markets Pump

405: Markets Looking to Rally on Good News

Good morning — big day for Arb Letter has we have officially passed 30,000 subscribers. Can’t begin to express my appreciation for all of you that have subscribed and become a part of this community. My initial goal with this was to have a platform outside legacy social media where I could tell it like it is.

Hopefully I have lived up to that. Whether it was Covid, election cycles, crypto commentary, market plays, or fresh perspectives on life without the normie/corporate filter means a lot to me that so many find Arb Letter engaging and valuable. You guys have had just as much to do with this growth as I have, sharing posts with like minded individuals who value sovereignty, truth, contrarian perspectives, and getting ahead of the pack.

I’ve got the ambitious goal of doubling the size of this community by some time next year. Remember to access all posts, guides, and deep dives consider upgrading for less than the cost of a venti coffee per month.

Today we’ve got a few partnerships to announce as well as some major headlines to cover so let’s get into it.

Markets are green today and we might be on the verge of more pumpage as sentiment improves re: potential trade deals.

Trump moved to scrap Biden-era restrictions on AI chip exports, arguing they were too complex and stifled U.S. innovation. The announcement gave semiconductor stocks a brief pop, with NVDA 0.00%↑ and AMD 0.00%↑ both ticking higher before cooling off in after-hours trading.

At the same time, the Fed held rates steady and Powell fired back—warning that the Trump administration’s tariffs are fanning inflation risks and raising the odds of stagflation. He made it clear the Fed isn’t in a rush to cut rates until the trade landscape stabilizes.

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Markets

Markets wobbled this week as investors digested mixed earnings, soft guidance, and rising tech sector uncertainty re: valuations and potential.

Big Tech stumbled earlier this week (though up today), led by Google’s sharp drop after fears resurfaced around its search deal with Apple. Meanwhile, the Fed held rates steady and Powell warned tariffs could fuel stagflation—a combo that’s keeping risk appetite in check. Under the surface, companies are tightening up: we’re seeing strategic layoffs, missed delivery targets, and cautious forward-looking statements across sectors.

Trump announced a new U.S.-U.K. trade agreement focused on eliminating tariffs for key industries, including autos, pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors. The deal is being framed as a major step toward rebuilding Western supply chains and reducing dependence on China.

Created with TradingView

Despite solid earnings both AMD 0.00%↑ and PLTR 0.00%↑ sold off a bit this week.

Here's the latest from the corporate front lines:

• Tesla has reported 420,000 vehicle deliveries in Q1, missing expectations of 450,000—supply chain snags and rising EV competition are taking a toll

• Amazon is expanding deeper into healthcare with the acquisition of a telehealth startup aimed at bolstering its virtual care offerings

• The percentage of borrowers at least 60 days late on their car payments is at the highest on record, (Bloomberg/Unusual Whales)

• Apple unveiled new AI-powered features at its developer conference, including an upgraded Siri and advanced photo tools baked into iOS

• Meta reported a 2% drop in daily active Facebook users—the first ever—blaming rising competition and shifting platform preferences

• Netflix topped 300 million global subscribers, driven by international growth and continued success of original content

• Google is facing a fresh antitrust lawsuit from the EU over alleged abuse of power in the digital ad market. The company says it will fight the charges, Google stock is down sharply this week, dropping over 8% yesterday after Apple’s Eddy Cue testified in the DOJ antitrust case that Apple may start offering AI-powered search alternatives like ChatGPT and Perplexity in the Safari browser.

Disney DIS 0.00%↑ stock jumped more than 10% this week after a strong earnings report and news of a new theme park project in Abu Dhabi. Streaming turned a profit for the first time, and the parks division posted a 13% gain in domestic earnings.

The Abu Dhabi park will be built and run by a local partner, meaning Disney collects royalties without putting major capital at risk — Mickey Mouse lovers and Disney superfreaks must of loved it as the stock is ripping off this news.

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Crypto

Tide is turning boys.

Bitcoin was hovering around $97,000 this week, fueled by renewed U.S.-China trade talks and fresh institutional demand. Japanese firm Metaplanet just bought another 555 BTC, pushing its total stash to over 5,500 coins. On-chain data shows Bitcoin’s realized cap just hit a new all-time high—another sign of strong conviction from long-term holders hodling.

Ethereum is up closing in on the $2,000 mark. We just need one spark to hopefully propel alt season into ignition.

BNB, XRP, and Cardano have been mostly flat. Meanwhile, the Fed held rates steady yesterday and Powell warned that tariffs could drive inflation and slow growth—comments that helped prop up risk assets like crypto heading into the week. Bitcoin is looking particularly strong now trading over $100,000 this morning with growing hype over institutional buys, trade deal news, and corporate purchasers.

In case you missed it, earlier this week I dropped a deep dive on tokenization—what it is, why BlackRock and JPMorgan are going all-in, and how it could unlock one of the biggest financial shifts of our lifetime (and opportunities for young people to make a metric shit ton of money).

If you’re trying to stay ahead of the curve on the emerging tech front, it’s worth the read:

I expanded on Twitter/X a little bit but a couple things are obvious now that we have started to pump again.

• Most are underexposed to Bitcoin

• Most got chopped up during the volatility or shaken out entirely

• Many people I know bought the Ethereum dip like lunatics

• PEPE and a handful of meme coins showed impressive resilience

There’s a reason you can go back to the inception of this publication and see me harping relentlessly on making Bitcoin the core holding in your crypto portfolio. It anchors your portfolio and it is the most proven asset in the space. When volatility comes, Bitcoin can swing too — but chances are it’s going to be much less volatile than meme coins, alts, and other holdings.

People steer away from Bitcoin because of unit bias (I can’t own a full one so instead I will buy 69 Million cumcoin, that feels better!) but it’s times like these that reinforce how crucial the orange coin is.

Don’t let the hopes of hyper gambling yourself to generational wealth steer you away from the time tested methods that make money in any market — patience, DCA (dollar cost averaging), and proper risk management.

• Ethereum's Pectra upgrade went live on May 7, 2025, marking the network's most significant overhaul since the 2022 Merge. This comprehensive update introduces 11 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs), which are aiming to enhance scalability, user experience, and staking efficiency (Coindesk)

• The OCC has clarified that national banks can now buy and sell crypto assets at customers' direction and outsource custody and execution services to third parties with proper risk management (Cointelegraph)

• Missouri is set to become first US state to exempt capital gains taxes on stocks, crypto and real estate (Cointelegraph)

• Coinbase is set to buy crypto options platform Deribit in $2.9 billion deal (WSJ/Unusual Whales)

SUI continues to gain momentum.

SUI has been ripping this week following the Basecamp 2025 event, breaking out of its recent slump with a 12%+ surge and heavy volume behind the move. The token is showing some strong momentum. Traders are eyeing $4+ as the next major target.

While a $332M token unlock is set to drop later this month, sentiment remains upbeat especially with the broader crypto market turning risk-on.

As of this morning, SUI is trading around $3.80.

Raoul Pal former Goldman Sachs executive is vocally bullish on SUI as of late — but good to remember Pal has taken on an advisory role with the Sui Foundation.

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Geopolitics

Geopolitical risk continues to climb as global power blocs shift and economic tensions intensify. From Asia to Eastern Europe, alliances are hardening, military posturing is escalating, and the global trade landscape remains fragile.

Behind the headlines, nations are racing to secure strategic influence—through diplomacy, energy deals, and defense buildups while businesses and investors brace for the ripple effects.

• India launched airstrikes on militant camps in Pakistan following a deadly attack in Kashmir. Pakistan responded with drone and missile fire, raising fears of a larger conflict between two nuclear-armed rivals

• The U.S. and China resumed trade talks in Geneva this week, the first high-level meeting since the new wave of tariffs, as both sides look to cool tensions and stabilize markets

• Taiwan’s president warned that growing authoritarian threats in Asia are mirroring pre-WWII Europe, urging various global democracies to stand united as Chinese military pressure intensifies. The New Taiwan Dollar saw sharp gains earlier this week, up over 10% against the U.S. dollar before leveling out.

  

• China is strengthening regional ties, with Premier Li Qiang set to attend the ASEAN-Gulf-China summit in Malaysia to hopefully deepen trade and energy cooperation amid souring relations with the West

• Russia is ramping up military displays ahead of its Victory Day celebration, including joint participation with Chinese military forces yet another sign of tightening Moscow-Beijing alignment

• Australian businesses are warning of rising inflation risks and economic uncertainty tied to the tariff standoff with the U.S., prompting calls for more diplomacy to avoid deeper fallout down under

• President Putin said this week the majority of trade between Russia and China is settled in national currencies, ditching the US Dollar (BRICSNews)

Tension continues in the ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan — India responded with missile strikes earlier this week under “Operation Sindoor,” targeting what it called terror infrastructure across the border.

Pakistan is claiming civilians were killed and has already launched retaliatory strikes of it’s own. Both sides have traded drone and missile fire over the past few days, prompting evacuations, flight cancellations, and a surge in military readiness across the region.

Polymarket has odds on a nuclear detonation in 2025 — with chances at 17% right now. I don’t know about you but probably good if that’s below 1% lmao.

The payout on this would be absurd — but it begs the question would it matter if you got paid out and nukes started dropping?

A lot going on this week. Make sure to check out the latest episode of Risk On with Genlayer’s CEO Albert Castellana. The discord is popping off right now if you are in the mood for some late week market plays.

See you guys on Tuesday morning and thank you again for your ongoing support — you’re all legends and giga chads/chadettes.

Andy

Gemini Crypto - Get Free Bitcoin

Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before investing and ensure you have a good understanding of your personal risk tolerance.