Timing The Crypto Market Bottom
560: Saylor Sells Bitcoin, Clarity Looming, ETF Inflows Surge
Good morning lords across the world.
Americans are likely just getting back into the swing of things after the 4th of July, nursing multi day hangovers or easing into the office with a nice sunburn. Norwegians and the English are ecstatic after some incredible world cup games and my condolences are with the Mexicans and Brazilians on this fine July morning.
Sadly the United States was officially eliminated from the FIFA World Cup after losing 4-1 to Belgium.
The memes are absolutely incredible though.
One thing you start to pick up on when you work on the internet for years is when the lull periods come. Mid July and the 4th weekend are notoriously slow and often lower for engagement across the board.
I get it. Weather is nicer. You’re on vacation. Shorter weeks, remote work, etc.
BUT you shouldn’t let slower summer months allow you to lose the ability to stay on top of market trends.
The last 48 hours have been sneaky important for crypto and I can guarantee you 90% of normies missed it all.
So good on you for being here.
Stuff is cooking behind the scenes and those who are paying attention are going to reap the benefits. This morning we are going to cram as much of it as we can into this post.
The big news yesterday in crypto was Saylor announcing that MSTR 0.00%↑ had sold about 3,588 Bitcoin. He previously sold 32 BTC, which sparked a bit of fear and condemnation from those who held him to his word. In retrospect, that very well may have been him testing the market for this larger clip that was sold between July 1st and 5th.
Many are saying that this is just the start. If Saylor, the god king of conviction, is selling, then what does that mean for the market? $30,000? $40,000 soon?
Others think this marks the start of a potential bottom.
Every major crypto bear market has looked different on the surface, but the anatomy of the bottom has been remarkably consistent.
Still, most people miss it. And each time it offers a golden ticket to wealth.
Bitcoin fell 94% after the 2011 crash, roughly 86% following the collapse of Mt. Gox in 2014–2015, another 84% during the 2018 ICO bust, and approximately 77% after the 2021 peak amid the failures of Terra, Three Arrows Capital, Celsius Network, and FTX.
Each cycle was accompanied by predictions that Bitcoin would never recover, yet each ultimately gave way to a new all-time high. By studying these market bottoms chronologically, we can identify the recurring patterns (both technical and psychological) that have historically signaled when fear was reaching its peak and opportunity was quietly beginning to emerge.
The current cycle has presented a different challenge for degens and traders.
Rather than a traditional 70–90% bear market, Bitcoin has spent much of the past year digesting an explosive advance through a combination of sharp corrections, prolonged consolidations, and repeated waves of pessimism.
You will likely remember, we never quite got that insane euphoric blow off top which caught many by surprise. We also never got a traditional alt season beyond some meme coin madness and animal coin mayhem.
The October liquidation event erased hundreds of billions of dollars from the crypto market in a matter of hours and days, triggering widespread fear that the bull market had run its course. As in prior cycles, headlines quickly shifted toward recession fears, ETF outflows, geopolitical uncertainty around Iran, and claims that crypto had entered another prolonged downturn.
And here we are. Chopping endlessly after some steady periods of down only that made even the most seasoned crypto trader pucker up. Still there is a 14% chance right on Polymarket that we pass $72,500 by the end of July. A 28% chance we climb back above $70,000. Not too shabby.
It’s anyone’s guess what comes next BUT, what I am starting to get excited about is the despair on the timeline.
People are despondent. They do not care. Go out to bars or talk with your working age cousins or randoms at pregames, NOBODY is talking about crypto right now.
And as I have said many times over the years, THIS is where you make money on the long side. When all hope looks lost and the last bear is piling into the trade, convinced he is going to make enough money from shorting to retire from his cowardly ways.
You don’t have to time the bottom perfectly but you simply cannot be late before things turn truly vertical again.
Are we about to god dump again or does this mark the beginning of the official bottom?
There’s going to be a significant amount of money to be made if it ends up being the latter, so let’s look at the evidence. And just like every cycle before this, I am going to get the folks in 2 months or 6 months or whenever we rebound, DMing me saying “is it too late to buy?!” and I’m just going to chuckle, because it really is as easy as paying attention to when the vibes shift, reading Arb Letter, and acting.