The wake up call
061: An ominous Fourth of July
Hey guys happy Friday - hope everyone is doing well as we look to wrap up 2Q.
Some wild developments in the United States recently with the Roe V Wade ruling, the S&P500 having it’s worst start since 1970, down nearly 21% since the beginning of the year, and some of the most volatile crypto markets on record implicating a range of massive institutions who recklessly gambled with leverage.
We touched on it in Wednesday’s Arb Letter covering institutional activity in crypto but there are several large and powerful trends transpiring that everyone should now be fully aware of.
Decentralization and sovereignty are going to be major themes for the next 5-10 years - this is not debatable now - crypto is here to stay/defi web3 etc. We will see more balkanization of the US on a state and regional level.
Governments are striving for more power and the elite are pushing for more wealth concentration - ironically we are seeing the last innings of fiat capitalism in my opinion
There will be a large group of people who simply do not make it - whether that be from low IQ, being poor/having no assets or social mobility, political involvement/distractions, pop culture drones, criminals, etc. This isn’t a joke. It’s reality.
It’s funny to me in my day to day, how oblivious some people are to what is going on around all of us. I think many are purposefully ignorant (ostrich head in the sand) because of how grim things look - unfortunately that won’t save you. At this point - if you don’t recognize that the people that run the country and the ones in power are actively working against you there’s no helping you. A quick snapshot of events right now:
S&P 500 worst 1H in 50 years
Eurozone inflation jumps to a record 8.6% in June, much higher than expected.
Spain reported consumer prices soaring at the highest annual rate in 37 years, with inflation estimated at 10.2% - Ray Dalio of the hedge fund Bridgewater, has made some notable big bets against the region.
The SEC's rejected Grayscale's proposed Bitcoin ETF AGAIN
The U.S. Supreme Court handed down a highly anticipated opinion that curbed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)’s power to regulate fossil fuels - this has broad implications on oil markets.
President Biden said this week that Americans are going to have to stomach high gas prices “as long as it takes” to defeat Putin’s invasion of Ukraine
With the Fourth of July approaching - it’s a great time to reflect on how we interact with our liberty and god given unalienable rights as humans.
We have many new subscribers to Arb Letter so I think it will be helpful to zoom out and cover some of the themes that we touch on frequently here. While we have some awesome in depth commentary on financial markets, global news, and current events - ultimately we aim to help people see what’s really going on the world so they can position themselves in the best manner possible and come out on top.
If you feel like the world is upside down - that’s because it is my friend. The values that helped create such a prosperous nation over hundreds of years have been long forgotten. We’ve been sold out, abused, deceived, and gaslighted by the people leading the country. While capitalism has dominated the world stage as the premier partner of democracy - I’d argue we are in the late stages of the experiment (as would Ray Dalio) and as history shows, nothing truly lasts forever.
Many young people during the last several years have developed mental health issues, including depression from isolation, pandemic blues, and some anxiety about political and social unrest and with good reason. Times are drastically changing.
My journey through the last two years or so has been pretty difficult at times, wading through what seems like an endless pandemic, repeated misinformation from our government and the Federal Reserve, changes to social life, and apprehension about what the future in the US will bring. I chose to attack some of the things that I was seeing head on.
The first major decision that I would highly recommend to anyone who has been considering it, is to physically vote by leaving an area that you know is contributing to some of the stress in your life. I chose to move out of NYC after 7 years because it’s become a cesspool of crime, high taxes, and woke liberal politicians who are ruining the state and city. I’m always going to miss it - but I felt it was no longer safe, accepted for my political views, or in a good position to grow/have more space. It no longer served me or cared to properly address the mounting crime and issues head on. Moving was something I could control.
With the advent of the work from home age I saw a wonderful opportunity to combine circumstances with my existing digital business and work even harder to set up a career from home alongside a thriving side business. This was my second choice - to choose autonomy.
Create the means to independently earn from anywhere in the world so that I could loosen my dependance on any one entity, organization, or individual. I’m not fully yet there - but am speeding towards the ability to do what I want everyday in the near future. That HAS to be the end goal for me. Why?
Well for several reasons. The first is that I want the ability to earn and make a living without having to be tied to a boss. Simple enough. The second reason is because of what’s going on in the world now. Before the pandemic, people were more relaxed, friendly, amicable, and fun to be around. With the increase in hyper partisan politics in the united states, that has completely changed forever, people have begun to revert back to aligning with their own tribes.
I can tell you as a slightly right leaning, reasonable, objective young chap, I wouldn’t be caught dead in a physical corporate office right now. My values don’t align with most people that are happy working a 9-5 job and catering to a boss that does little to no work.
My values don’t align with a corporation who values woke politics over efficiency. My values don’t align with a company or institution that mandates people to take experimental vaccines, while fully vaccinated people continually contract and spread the virus. It simply doesn’t make sense. I won’t buy into that mentality. My values also don’t align with being soft of criminals who are growing in number by the day and harming good people in cities and towns across America. Justice, is hard fought these days. Things rarely shake out the way they should.
Most major institutions have developed the woke mind virus that has contributed to deterioration throughout the US these days and it’s presence in corporate America has deluded talent levels in the name of virtue, destroyed accountability, and fostered intense softness/delusion about the way the world works. Everyone suffers from weakness and comfort.
The way I see it, there are two camps of people in the United States right now. Those that understand the implications of inflation, failed government policies, and the seriousness of continued political partisanship. These people are pushing to escape the rat race and see what’s going on from a 1,000 foot view.
They understand being an asset holder and owning equity/having your own business is one of the only ways to try and escape what’s coming - a complete seperation of haves and have nots. Sovereignty, autonomy, and freedom matter the most. Then, there are those who have doubled down on a handful of positions and stances, which include:
Reliance on institutions (woke corporations) and government handouts/direction (Vaccines Taxes, what to be angry about (Guns, Roe V Wade, Ukraine etc.)
Support of woke politics and social virtue signaling
Ignorance of government abuses of power, economic issues, and geo political threats
Proponents of a socialism based ideology in all aspects of life
Which camp do you fall in?
Remember while people in certain political camps will likely immediately fall into either one of these categories, it’s not meant to be political. It’s about how you perceive the world and if you recognize how bad things are getting.
Are you ready to transcend and navigate through this brave new world?
The pandemic, Federal Reserve incompetence, and government policies of the last 2 years all either by negligence or intention, have created an environment where anyone who’s not in the 1% are loosing more and more ability to transcend social class and have some chance of upward mobility.
You can’t afford a house now, tradfi and crypto markets are viciously shaking out retail investors, food and basics prices are going up rapidly. Rent is going up. Cars are going up. This is all aimed at making you MORE dependent on the government and degrading YOUR mobility/quality of life.
Food and necessities are going to continue going up in price. Job cuts are likely going to come and get way worse. You need to be building side hustles and businesses. You need to be hedging your corporate job with other ancillary income.
Why exactly do you think the Federal Reserve is proposing the implementation of CBDCs (essentially a digital government controlled dollar)?
To give you more money? LOL. More freedom? LOL.
The goal is to monitor and control your money. That’s always been the goal. After all they printed it into oblivion. Why do you even pay taxes if they can print it from thin air and use it to their advantage? Remember when the Fed officials sold the absolute top in equities to avoid a “conflict of interest”? Fucking convenient. These people aren’t your friends, never were.
Now they want to extend their influence and control into digital assets which will help them monitor who you are, your habits, what you can buy, and where you’re able to travel to. Hell, they could even digitally cut off your access to it if they don’t like the fact you liked a tweet by Ben Shapiro.
Honestly that alone is the biggest nod of validation for the long term feasibility of Bitcoin. They know how powerful it is, and that’s why I am such a long term turbo bull. Bitcoin represents the only true form of scarce unfuckable freedom. Now they want their cut and want their own version of it. Keep in mind, this also indicates they expect the Dollar and fiat currency to be rendered effectively useless at some point and have already hinted at as much.
Like we said in our last Arb Letter, institutional activity right now in the depths of a bloody bear market, tells us everything we need to know about the long term value of crypto and Bitcoin.
I encourage all of you to make moves to become healthier mentally and physically, improve your finances, lock down you asset accumulation strategy, and reconsider where you live physically.
I expect we encounter rougher times soon. Anyway, end of my quick morning rant.
I will see our paid subs Monday for a Deal Sled Review of 2022.
Have a great Fourth of July Weekend and count your blessings. Better yet let America to inspire you to revert back to some of the things that made this country great over it’s lifetime. Freedom, liberty, virtue, and perseverance.
#godspeed Andy.
lol, This reads a bit like BTB's "Cull the Herd" post from a few months back. Prob not the intention. Good piece either way.