The Vibes Have Officially Shifted
555: Belfast Chaos, Metcalf Verdict, Iran Escalation
Good morning all.
As a follow up today to our post on Tuesday (which I apologize, did go out a bit late), I wanted to not only get everyone caught up on the state of financial markets, but air out some of the biggest issues on earth right now including:
The reversal and dump in global markets
The verdict in the Austin Metcalf murder
The riots and unrest in the UK and Ireland
Iran war escalation
Covid was certainly one of the biggest moments in our lifetimes where the “matrix” or “big illusion” of society fractured.
Since then it’s been a non stop circus on every front: markets, society, etc. It is almost impossible to keep up with all of it.
Despite all of that noise and bullshit, the truth is right in front of everyone’s faces regardless of if they want to acknowledge it or not.
What makes it difficult sometimes is that the powers that be, intentionally obfuscate the truth. They gaslight you. They lie to your face, sometimes with such audacity and gall, it is truly unbelievable.
As I like to say, the world is changing quick, don’t get left behind.
Markets Take A turn For The Worse
Our little gain party might be temporarily over.
This week the Nasdaq led the decline as chip stocks came under heavy pressure. Nvidia NVDA 0.00%↑ Broadcom, AMD 0.00%↑ Marvell, Super Micro Computer SMCI 0.00%↑, and other AI linked names all saw meaningful dumping. The broader semiconductor complex has now erased hundreds of billions in market value over the past several sessions.
By yesterday, the selling accelerated with the Dow dropping nearly 1,000 points in a single session while the S&P 500 fell more than 1.5% and the Nasdaq slid roughly 2%.
Despite this weakness gents, it’s worth remembering that much of this appears to be a correction within a larger uptrend rather than a full blown bear market (for now).
That being said this week’s CPI report shows us that inflation is not completely dead. Headline CPI came in at 4.2% year-over-year, the highest reading in roughly three years, driven largely by soaring energy prices and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, remained relatively contained at 2.9% annually and just 0.2% month-over-month.
In other words, much of the inflation spike appears tied to oil and gasoline rather than broad based price increases across the economy. PPI comes out today at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time.
OpenAI is reportedly planning their IPO with a targeted valuation between $730 billion and $850 billion (CNBC/Unusual Whales)
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warned recently AI could create a world of “hypergrowth, hyper-inequality” and lasting job displacement (Polymarket)
Oracle ORCL 0.00%↑ shares came under pressure after hours dumping 5%
Intel unveiled additional details surrounding its next generation AI accelerator roadmap
Defense spending across NATO countries continues to trend higher, benefiting contractors such as Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics
Singapore's DBS bank is set to launch tokenized physical gold for retail customers via its digibank app (CoinTelegraph)
Citadel and Citadel Securities just unveiled their largest internship class to date choosing 350 interns out of 115,900 applicants
Few potential IPOs have generated as much excitement and hype as SpaceX, set to go live Friday, June 12 on the Nasdaq under ticker SPCX.
The company has become one of the most valuable private businesses in the world thanks to its dominance in commercial launches, Starlink's rapidly growing satellite internet network, and its long-term ambitions surrounding Mars exploration.
The demand remains enormous — one chick in a recent interview on X said she tried taking out a $5,000 loan just to ape this name today lol — but many analysts argue expectations have become extremely aggressive, with private market valuations already pricing in years of lofty future growth and execution.
A Bloomberg report stated the IPO is expected to create around 4,400 new millionaires including cafeteria workers and lower employees at SpaceX who have been squirreling away shares.
Not sure I will be dabbling out of the gate with this name BUT I am curious to see how it performs through end of week.
When it comes to crypto our nice little bounce got slammed just as hard as equities with Bitcoin now trading near $62,000 and Ethereum at $1,600. The chart below is from a stream by Bitcoin analyst and commentator Benjamin Cowen. It displays the percentage of Bitcoin in profit and loss. It’s a pretty clear cyclical picture that coordinates with cycle lows and highs quite well.
As Ben points out in this video, the cycle bottom does not occur until AFTER the supply of Bitcoin in profit and loss CROSSES.
This could suggest we are some time into the bear market and the better days are on the horizon if we can avoid a global economic meltdown.
As we await positive news on the Clarity Act this summer, Senator Cynthia Lummis has said “Other nations are accumulating Bitcoin quietly. We should be doing it loudly, on the record, by law”.
In regards to the broader markets pull back this week, corrections are normal.
Question now is whether this is simply a healthy pullback or the beginning of some type of deeper repricing as inflation, interest rates, and Iran drama screw us over for a longer period of time.
Next week we will throw together a shopping list if it continues. If you want to get ahead of our thoughts there would be great to review the post below as it looks like many of these names will be on sale.
Iran & Geopolitics
Heading into the week, reports suggested that backchannel negotiations between the United States and Iran were making progress, with several media outlets indicating that both sides were moving closer to a framework agreement.
It looked pretty solid and crypto took it as a small green light to bump.
Oil prices initially softened on the hopes that a diplomatic breakthrough could reduce tensions but Iran really just can’t play out for us and end so that we can move onto the next big thing.
Tensions in the Persian Gulf escalated again this week after reports emerged that an Iranian drone became entangled with a U.S. Apache helicopter operating near the Strait of Hormuz. Odds on Polymarket sit at 28% that we get a permanent peace deal with Iran. Not completely cooked but not high enough to instill confidence we are close to the end.
According to U.S. officials and reports, the aircraft was forced into an emergency ditching after the drone caught fire, though both pilots were successfully rescued in a sick maritime snatch.
The recovery operation was notable for reportedly marking the first time an unmanned surface vessel was used to rescue American service members in an active military environment. A 24-foot Saronic Corsair autonomous surface vessel (USV) from Saronic Technologies was used for the rescue.
The incident then triggered a swift U.S. response, with multiple retaliatory strikes carried out against Iranian linked targets.
This exchange serves as another reminder to us that the Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most strategically important chokepoints, where even isolated/small incidents can rapidly escalate and then have implications for energy markets, shipping lanes, and continued regional stability. It’s just a complete clusterf*ck right now.
Yesterday President Trump said he will "bomb the shit" out of Iran if they do not sign a deal by tomorrow.
At this point, markets are essentially caught between two wildly different outcomes. On one hand, the first scent of a diplomatic breakthrough could send oil lower and remove one of the largest overhangs facing markets and on the other, we see a major escalation by the US or Israel that bleeds this conflict out well into the summer.
Today will be big for updates so make sure you’re on X.
"We will be hitting Iran hard tonight, they have had their time to negotiate and these attacks are not a restart to the war but to set the terms for the deal”
—Secretary of War Pete Hegseth
Ireland & UK Immigration Explosion
It appears that the Irish and British people have had enough of their countries being invaded by immigrants and third worlders.
Most recently the UK saw demonstrations surge in the aftermath of the killing of Henry Nowak by a Sikh and then the boiling point was reached this week when a Sudanese man attacked and attempted to cut off the head of a British man.
Rioters have torched vehicles, buses, homes, and makeshift barricades while hurling petrol bombs, fireworks, and masonry at police officers.
The truly insane part of all of this, aside from the lunatic trying to behead a man in the street, is the predictable reaction from leftist elites in the UK.
UK PM Keir Starmer said this week:
There is no justification for the acts of violence and arson that we saw in Belfast last night. It is completely unacceptable. I urge for calm. We must let the police get on with their work.
The Minister of Northern Ireland said this week that she wishes “people didn’t see that video”.
Can you imagine?
She’s inconvenienced that people saw a Sudanese man cutting a dudes head off.
Their pathetic cries and cope are falling on deaf ears.
People don’t give a f*ck now.
You are in a war.
You think voting solves this? You think appealing to the same politicians who enabled all of this to happen in the first place is going to work?
This is the real world. Where violence and force rule. Nothing is off the table now. The people have clearly had enough.
You as a reader should understand this because the narratives the establishment and left are pushing rely on emotional appeal, virtue signaling, and pearl clutching. The same things that got us into this mess to begin with. THEY facilitated the conditions people are reacting to.
The audacity to ACTUALLY signal or imply you care more about justifiable outrage than the beheading of a man in the street, or grooming gangs systematically raping thousands and thousands of young women and girls over decades is disgusting.
And it is war worthy. People absolutely believe it is worthy of the violent retaliation in the streets. Protests continued last night, with police deploying water cannons to stave off protestors.
British politicians are now pushing for more limitations on X to curb free speech. the reality is they are inconvenienced by the platform, given people around the world can really see what is happening. They would prefer a complete blackout in which they can determine what people see.
It’s entirely Orwellian.
This morning we received news that Defence Secretary John Healey stepped down from his position, citing concerns that the government's planned defense spending increases were insufficient given the growing security challenges facing the country. In his resignation statement, Healey argued that current funding levels could leave Britain's armed forces underprepared at a time when geopolitical risks are rising across Europe, the Middle East, and beyond.
Wonder if this had anything to do with what is going on at home as well.
“What multiculturalism boils down to is that you can praise any culture in the world except Western culture. And you cannot blame any culture in the world except Western culture.”
— Thomas Sowell
Austin Metcalf & Karmelo Anthony
It’s not just overseas where social issues are driving unrest. The state of race relations in the US continues to deteriorate as the verdict on the Austin Metcalf & Karmelo Anthony trial came in this week.
The case stemmed from a fatal altercation at a Texas high school track meet in April 2025, where 17 year old Austin Metcalf was stabbed and killed during a dispute under a team tent. Karmelo Anthony, who was also 17 at the time, claimed he acted in self-defense, while prosecutors argued the stabbing was unjustified and constituted murder.
After a closely watched trial that drew national attention and sparked heated debate online, a jury rejected the self defense argument, finding Anthony guilty of murder.
This week, Anthony was sentenced to 35 years in prison. The case was pretty clear cut from the start but suffered from the typical race and societal implications that muddies what should otherwise be a straightforward determination.
Karmelo Anthony is now said to be appealing his conviction after his family and supporters allege racial bias. Can’t make this shit up.
Outside the court house it was an ugly scene.
One supporter of Karmelo said "What do I tell my 5 boys? What do we do now!?"
Well for starters you could have them not stab people? Right?
Another said “F*ck white lives”
Others in this video said Karmelo should have killed Austin’s twin brother as well.
And so the position most of these people defending Karmelo are taking is entirely indefensible lol.
Unless of course, they really don’t care. It’s not about the truth here, it’s about white vs. black. No black jurors were seated on the final panel, with Prosecutors saying that those jurors were removed because they were educators/teachers, and the state did not want educators serving on a jury involving a case between high school students at a school event. I’m wondering if there’s more to that story.
When you have people who are openly willing to excuse, celebrate, or justify violence based on the race of either the victim or the perpetrator, you’re approaching levels of social division that become very difficult to reverse. At that point, facts become secondary/don’t matter.
Every event gets filtered through the lens of identity, politics, and group loyalties.
That’s ultimately what makes cases like this so troubling. A tragedy that should unite people in condemning the loss of a young life instead becomes another battleground in a broader cultural war. The victim’s race, the defendant’s race, the composition of the jury, and the political implications end up receiving more attention than the simple reality that a teenager is dead and another will likely spend decades behind bars.
The uncomfortable truth is that this isn’t happening in a vacuum. Across the West, we’re seeing trust in institutions decline, political polarization deepen, and people increasingly sort themselves into competing tribes.
Social media only accelerates the process, rewarding outrage, grievance, and division while punishing nuance. Some of the posts I am seeing about Austin Metcalf on X look strikingly similar to those celebrating Charlie Kirk’s murder.
What’s taking place in the United States is emblematic of a broader trend unfolding across much of the developed world. The lines separating race, politics, culture, and identity continue to harden. When every issue becomes a tribal issue, compromise becomes almost impossible and social cohesion begins to break down (like we are seeing in the streets of the UK).
That may be the most concerning verdict to come out of this entire case in my opinion.
As usual if you guys enjoyed this edition of Arb Letter make sure to forward it to friends and like minded folks. Does us a huge favor in getting the word out!
See you next week. If shit pops off this weekend we will drop a quick update.
Andy
Matt Walsh is pretty insufferable to me but he summed it up best, essentially saying “Keep in mind the same people supporting Karmelo’s right to stab metcalf for shoving him are the same people who opposed Kyle rittenhouse’s right to retaliate in response to being chased down by violent mobs of people wishing to do him harm”
Good luck to all in chimpcon 2026
I might move to Santa Fe, I was there over the weekend looking at art for the crib. That is one place that has NOT been culturally enriched by niggers and thirdies. They have their one culture, kinda Hispanic/indian (feather not street shitter) culture locked in and it’s actually amazing. Food is immaculate you can’t have a bad meal anywhere. Mezcal on the rooftop bar at La Fonda hotel while the suns going down is a must if you haven’t been. All the buildings have to be adobe style, it’s against the law to build something that isn’t adobe. Could you imagine if white people made it a law to build things strictly in a renaissance, gothic, or Roman-esque style? It would be burned to the ground by browns, blacks, and retarded whites. Obviously strict abode laws are okay, re: Thomas sowell