The Time has Come Kings
310: Rate Cuts, RFK Endorses Trump, Pumps
Happy Friday yall — normally steer away from Friday notes since engagement tends to be on the lower side but wanted to get a quick post out to all subs. Markets & Geopolitics updates you need to now about before the weekend.
Below is a list of some of the top paid posts from this summer along with a description on what each entails.
The first is our “ 7 Cryptos for Life Changing Wealth” guide — many of these remain the same despite current market conditions. As we continue to get more clarity on the course of the US election outcome and potential regulatory updates/clarity I have full confidence the bull market will continue.
We are ranging at the moment and my formal prediction is crypto sees it’s big pump in the coming months (sometime before April 2025). There’s still time to position accordingly — just don’t forget to make sure you have a solid amount of BTC/ETH with a long term view before moving onto riskier plays.
Will Tanner on Twitter who is also active on Substack shouted out our piece below on “How to Become Sovereign & Ungovernable”. This is one of our most popular guides of all time highlighting the different ways you can decrease your reliance on legacy systems — everything from banks, to institutions, to the job you go to everyday, and more.
I am a huge proponent of being sovereign — my rights are not given to me by government or man. As political trends indicate more and more socialist policies and centralization of government, this post is critical to understanding some of the ways that you can become more free and ensure that you are able to live your life with as little involvement or control from others as possible.
Markets
Markets have reacted positively to Jerome Powell’s speech today at Jackson Hole in which he hinted that the time has come to adjust Fed policy and consider rate cuts.
Overall, the economy continues to grow at a solid pace. But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation. The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased. As we highlighted in our last FOMC statement, we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate.
The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability. With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint, there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2 percent inflation while maintaining a strong labor market. The current level of our policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face, including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions.
The S&P finished up 1.15%, the Nasdaq climbed up 1.47%, and the Dow up 1.33%. Important to remember that rates cuts don’t necessarily mean it’s up only mode again as noted in former Arb Letters.
I am cautiously optimistic the market continues to ump into election season and risk on assets like crypto continue their climb higher. Will be interesting to see if crypto can decouple and outpace equities.
Soneium—a next-gen blockchain by Sony Group and StartaleHQ — has chosen Chainlink as its premier launch partner.
CNBC reports that 25% of Gen Z taxpayers say they will 'need a therapist to help deal with the stress of tax-filing season', based on a survey by Cash App Taxes (Insider Paper)
85,760 job cuts this month, so far (MacroEdge)
Billionaire Paul Marshall Nears Deal to Buy Britain’s Spectator Magazine for Over $131 Million (WSJ)
Crypto is beginning to run again — likely due to a combination of Jerome Powell’s speech and quasi pivot today as well as the announcement by RFK Jr. of his endorsement of Former President Trump. I do think this is the start of a move higher and many alts are starting to look pretty attractive — particularly the ones that are climbing with Bitcoin including LINK, PEPE, AVAX, DOT, and NEAR.
I am optimistic of a move much higher in the near future and am glad I took this recent series of lower prices to obtain more BTC and ETH. Eventually most will be priced out of buying any meaningful position and then the FOMO will set in.
Not a position you want to be in.
If you’ve historically been a conservative investor or someone with a much smaller allocation in crypto now might be the time to reconsider that. This asset class is not going anywhere and is currently just going through some of the same pains as any asset class in an unpredictable macro environment and political landscape. While a Kamala win would set us back a bit — it wouldn’t kill crypto, especially Bitcoin.
The writing is on the the wall, the institutions have been buying this whole time.
You won’t get unlimited chance here.
Geopolitics
X posts from OSINT community members and others emerged this week giving us a look into the size and scope of US military presence in the Middle East right now and it’s staggering. Iran’s so called response has not come in a timely manner and may never come as the weight of the US military sits with it’s fangs showing.
We will have an update on Ukrainian activity in the Kursk region next week.
Multiple Secret Service agents have been “put on leave” over the Trump assassination attempt.
Biden admin has reportedly announced it is restarting the free Covid test program in late September.
An illegal migrant was shot dead when the Greek coast guard fired on speedboat off their coast
An oil tanker was bombed in the Red Sea by Yemeni forces today
DNC & Presidential Race Update
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spoke live today to announce he is suspending his campaign and dropping off the ballot in swing states. RFK announced his support for Trump which should have some interesting impacts on the current odds markets for the election and make a difference in swing states.
Kennedy stated he believed that in a proper system, like the one that his father and grandfather saw success in, he would have won the election (I tend to agree). He touched on the partisan politics, censorship, and rigged primary process as reasons that he believes this will not be a fair election and was enormously critical of the Democratic party.
Kennedy stated the DNC corrupted the process to prevent him from being able to contend for the position of Democratic Nominee, referencing the palace coup against Joe Bide to install Kamala as the Democratic candidate.
They installed a candidate that was so unpopular with voters she dropped out in 2020 given nobody voted for her, my grandfather and father would be astonished to hear that the democratic candidate nominee hasn’t appeared in single interview or debate”.
How did the democratic committee choose a candidate?
By weaponizing the government agencies, abandoning democracy, suing opposition, and disenfranchising voters. It worries me that there is media control, censorship, and the weaponization of the US Government
— RFK Jr.
"I don't think my father would recognize this party, and I don't think my uncle would recognize this party."
RFK noted that “Kamala Harris declined to meet or even to speak with me”
Predictably as RFK kept grilling the mainstream media and Democrat party CNN cut off the feed and let their shills continue to mislead millions of people. Lol they literally proved his point in real time.
It should be pretty obvious by now that the way in which the Democratic party has ushered in Kamala is not even remotely Democratic. It’s a joke. It’s all a charade and I’m tired of the cope and excuses all centered around Trump, and not around the absurd way she has found herself in this position.
Obviously we will cover the state of the race as it progresses but the fact of the matter is — this is a contest between all out communism and freedom loving Americans at this point.
There really isn’t a middle ground anymore.
The results of this election will have broad implications on security, society, people’s money, our economy, and the prosperity of our country.
It should not be taken lightly.
It’s a shame RFK didn’t get a true shot at the White House as I would’ve absolutely voted for him. Hopefully Americans in the middle of the road take his words today to heart and realize just how radical and corrupt this new fringe of the Democratic party is. I’m not sure how much more testimony or evidence we need to realize that at this point. It’s completely out of control.
They cannot win or rule with mass censorship, control, and deception. Their lies are unraveling by the day and the entire facade keeps getting more and more unbelievable.
Have a great weekend see all of you next week.
Andy
Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice - always do your own research and diligence before investing and ensure you have a good understanding of your personal risk tolerance.
And Democrats are suing to get Jill stein off ballots in wisconsin. If they had their way, they would only have Kamala on the ballot and still celebrate saving democracy.
1938 Anschluss Referendum comes to mind.