The Setup for a Big Move

522: Silver, Crypto Bounce, US Civil Unrest Growing

Afternoon guys.

Solid amount of updates across markets, US news, and Global news for us to cover today.

Before we dive in, some highlights from Polymarket on ridiculous payouts folks have nailed in past weeks and months.

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Market News

There was some sort of delivery error on Tuesday morning’s post in which some of you could not access our 2026 Investment Picks for Size Lords post. So I wanted to plug it here again (issues should be resolved).

In it I detail some new stock picks across defense, energy, storage, and AI/tech that I am adding this year already. Don’t continue to miss out, we have printed on some of these defense picks from late 2025.

The situation in Iran is pumping some of these names higher and I suspect later on this year we will have additional tailwinds from China and Russia that will help as well.

Names like KTOS 0.00%↑ LMT 0.00%↑ LHX 0.00%↑ and others have been on some impressive tears. UAMY 0.00%↑ as well is on a wild rip.

U.S. markets had a choppy start to the week, with stocks selling off early on the back of weak bank earnings and renewed tech volatility, before stabilizing and bouncing later in the week as dip-buyers stepped in.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both swung from early losses into a somewhat modest rebound, while the Dow held up better, helped by industrials and defense (send it). Overall, equities are roughly flat to slightly lower on the week, reflecting a market that’s still uneasy (likely about macro) but far from breaking down.

Our KTOS 0.00%↑ position is still printing and SMCI 0.00%↑ has bounced a bit after a few tough sessions.

• November PPI inflation rises to 3.0%, above expectations of 2.7%

• The U.S. Mint has suspended all sales of silver products

• Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft together are all planning to invest a combined $440 billion in AI this year (Bloomberg/Unusual Whales)

• ASML 0.00%↑ just became the 3rd company in Europe's history to hit $500 billion in market cap (Kobeissi Letter)

• BlackRock’s Larry Fink said this week “I do not think there is an AI bubble”

• President Trump is set to cut tariffs on Taiwan to 15%. It is being reported this afternoon that Taiwan is committing $500,000,000,000 to support US semiconductor operations

• Silver is trading near $92/oz today, absolutely psycho mode

For refreshed AI names check out the guide above.

I am focused on SMCI and TSM as well as getting some more exposure to some of the drone tech plays we discussed at the beginning of last week.

Crypto

At least for the moment, it appears crypto has slightly decoupled from equities.

Crypto has stayed volatile but constructive over the last 48 hours, with Bitcoin pushing back toward the upper end of its recent range ($97,400) before cooling slightly as some traders took profits.

Ethereum has held firm, supported by strong on-chain activity and continued growth in staking, while alt coins have seen mixed action as capital rotates between majors and some higher beta names.

Overall market cap remains elevated, and the tone still feels risk-on despite some short-term consolidation between equity and macro headlines.

So far in 2026 around $120B has been added to the crypto market.

• The CME Group is set to launch Cardano and Chainlink futures

• CoinGecko is contemplating a sale for around $500 million, and has hired Moelis to run the process

• Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said his bank will be “fine” if stablecoins become a larger part of mainstream finance, but warned that the broader banking system could be harmed by the “possibility of $6 trillion in deposits” moving into stablecoins (CoinDesk)

• The Chainlink Reserve now holds a total of 1,586,266.80 LINK (adding 82,000 this week)

We are close to the point where it might make sense to begin adding some ETH/alt exposure but we will talk about specifics early next week. For now, watch how crypto performs this weekend, especially if we see some escalation in Iran.

Could be a good indicator of a decoupling really accelerating between Bitcoin and metals/equities as people begin to rotate capital. I think this leg up is going to get stronger and we’re going to see even more FOMO from retail as they panic and get out of overcrowded trades.

PEPE, AVAX, AAVE, SOL should rip as Bitcoin bounces above the $100K range again and Ethereum follows suit, closing in on $4,000.

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Global News

The 2026 chaos continues around the globe. Increased tensions in the Middle East are a renewed focus in the aftermath of the US raid on Venezuela to capture Maduro. Polymarket, experts, and other platforms are anticipating severe unrest as well as potential strikes and regime change in the Iran x Israel conflict.

President Trump himself has been alluding to potential military action in the wake of growing reports and video evidence online of the Iranian regime murdering hundreds, if not thousands of protestors. That language has eased a bit with Trump saying this week “the killing has stopped” and diplomatic efforts in the region intensifying to avoid conflict.

However so far no direct action has been undertaken by the US, though I have a hunch this could be redirection on Trump’s part before some sort of operation.

• U.S. freezes all visa processing "indefinitely" for 75 countries

• US Navy sailor Jinchao Wei was sentenced to 16 years in prison for selling secrets to China this week

• Germany announced plans to deploy non-NATO troops to Greenland among concerns over president Donald trump and his recent messages about taking over Greenland (lol!)

• U.S. forces have reportedly seized a sixth oil tanker named the "Veronica" in the Caribbean

• In a wild development, the CIA has begun recruiting Chinese spies on X, posting a guide to contacting them securely

• Venezuela's opposition leader Machado arrived at the White House for Trump talks this week

Civil Unrest in Minnesota

If there was any doubt that the situation in Minnesota is deteriorating into the summer of love 2.0 that doubt is now gone. Online rage peaked after CBS reported that the ICE officer involved in the shooting of Renee good, Jonathan Ross, suffered internal bleeding to the torso following the incident.

Last night turned highly disruptive after another ICE involved shooting after an officer was reportedly attacked with a shovel and broom handle by Venezuelan nationals.

All 3 entered the country illegally.

The jokes really do write themselves.

Last night got spicy, FBI and ICE vehicles were broken into and then destroyed. Video shows agent documents and FBI weapons stolen from the cars. Similar to this video from Seattle in 2021 during BLM/Antifa unrest. Agitators also destroyed laptops, stole tactical vests, and took notebooks.

Multiple leftists streamers then proceeded to dox agent information, identities, and locations online.

ICE and DHS vehicles were destroyed

Trump is now threatening to use the Insurrection Act which would allow him to deploy troops in Minneapolis. This is of course the proper course of action. The Insurrection Act has been invoked 30 times by 17 different presidents.

This has moved from protests over ICE deportations into what’s clearly becoming an insurgency of sorts.

Mark my words, given the language, vibe, and attitude right now, it is only a matter of time before someone else OR an ICE agent is killed.

These people are domestic terrorists.

Tim Walz this week continues to reinforce the idea that this is a true states vs. Feds insurrection. He is directly encouraging individuals to resist and treat ICE as the enemy

"If you see ICE agents in your neighborhood, take out that phone and hit record. Help us create a database of the atrocities … to bank evidence for future prosecution."

Atrocities? lol?

They’re literally deporting Somali scammers and illegal aliens.

Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey added fuel to the fire saying:

"We're in a position right now where we have residents that are asking police officers to fight ICE agents on the street, to stand by their neighbors”

I will say it again, it is wild that ALL OF THIS is over something as common sense as enforcing US immigration law.

Absolutely mind bending stuff.

If Trump were to invoke the Insurrection Act in Minneapolis, it would mark one of the most largest domestic escalations of federal power in decades.

That move would allow the federal government to deploy active-duty U.S. military forces inside the city, not just National Guard units under state control. You would likely see a rapid surge of federal troops, armored vehicles, and joint DHS–military operations focused on protecting federal buildings, enforcing immigration actions, and restoring order in areas deemed out of control.

That kind of deployment would immediately raise the temperature.

Which is the entire problem and one I talked about months ago.

Once millions of illegals get let into the country, you then need to get them out. Getting them out is a painstaking process when half the country thinks borders are not necessary and that all of these people should stay.

Protesters would frame this as federal occupation (which they are already doing), and nightly clashes could intensify as crowds test the new red lines. Tear gas, flash bangs, mass arrests, and perimeter zones around downtown and government buildings would likely become the norm, while legal battles between Minnesota officials and the federal government would play out in parallel.

It wouldn’t be martial law in name, but on the ground it would feel like a city operating under emergency federal control, with enormous political and market implications if it drags on for weeks or months.

Again, much of this we predicted in April of last year. Markets were soaring and nobody cared or took the warning seriously.

Now, many probably realize this is a movement that will not go away quietly in the US and it risks bleeding into cities and communities where we all live.

This behavior in the streets of Minneapolis, like the behavior in the wake of the George Floyd incident, cannot continue to be tolerated or it will spread and inspire others to act in the same manner.

Regardless of your opinion on deportations, immigration, etc. this is a slippery slope and I don’t think the majority of people realize it isn’t going to take much before this gets truly out of control.

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That’s all for today, good chance I put out another post before next week if we see some big developments in the next 48 hours.

Next week we will do a deep dive on crypto market dynamics and get into domestic plays in markets that could pay off if this unrest grows leading up to midterms, which I expect it to definitely do.

Andy

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Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before\