Good morning lords of size and happy Friday. I know most of you likely tune out on Fridays but I’d suggest giving this 10 minutes of your attention on this fine day.
I am writing this with a sense of urgency today (forgive typos) because my gut tells me the bottom in crypto is more than likely in (or we are close as hell to it).
So speed matters, especially because this opportunity period for you to gain and advantage over the masses is finite.
There are a handful of times when I look back, where I write an Arb Letter guide that I know is going to be an important one, a guide that is going to change the way people look at a given opportunity and a guide that may enable them to see enormous success in markets (in this case crypto).
Two former ones that come to mind off the top of my head are:
The Next Generational Wealth Opportunity (AKA Tokenization)
The 2026 Blueprint: Survive the Chaos, Profit From the Future
Writing Arb Letter for 5+ years now has taught me many lessons on human psychology, especially when it comes to money.
People absolutely FLOCK to Arb Letter when we are in clear bull markets. They DM me asking me what to buy, what wallets or exchanges to use, which token is set to make someone generational wealth etc.
When things are more uncertain, they die off. They give up, they put their research and attention on the shelf and they chase other things with a more immediate dopamine feedback loop.
It’s classic behavior but it generally means those people:
a.) are never early to bull runs
b.) buy too late and sell too early
Just last week I pitched NEAR protocol and it’s new meme coin derivative NEARKAT (that pays you NEAR just for holding it). Since the original mention of NEARKAT it has tripled.
NEAR is on the move as well now trading over $3.55 (up 44% this week and up 118% on the month). Those who ended up reading, researching, and taking the idea to heart are now up bigly and have a stake in this new vein of crypto that is firing on all cylinders JUST as sentiment is starting to turn super bullish.
I have earned $250 of NEAR for doing literally nothing except holding NEARKAT.
Quite literally free money.
Additionally, most of you will remember the consensus from normies that we end up bottoming later this year. I challenged this head on, saying that seemed far too easy and expected, what would happen if we bottomed earlier and started to see signs of activity return prior to October?
My point isn’t to highlight one runner/winner we just had. My point is that when I tell you it’s time to start paying attention and easing back into the space, I’m not just doing that on some random hunch (there’s a reason we are consistently a crypto best seller on here).
It’s because I watch a bunch of different things including:
Market structure - I watch whether Bitcoin is establishing higher lows, reclaiming the major moving averages, where it is holding previous resistance as support, and if it is recovering quickly after liquidations. I am not a technical genius by any means, but you can garner enough of this online to get a healthy sense of where the orange coin stands
Liquidity conditions - I have said this countless times before and I will say it again - crypto ultimately runs on liquidity. I monitor the dollar, Treasury yields, central bank policy, global money supply, and whether financial conditions are beginning to loosen or not
ETF and institutional flows (one of the larger signals) Are there Persistent inflows? Particularly during weak price action that might suggest that larger investors are quietly absorbing supply before retail sentiment improves (the answer has been yes recently……
Bitcoin dominance vs alts and market breadth - We talk about the general order of things in the past, where Bitcoin normally leads a recovery. Then Ethereum strengthens, followed by major alt coins, smaller protocols, and finally the most speculative areas of the market. We’ve seen this order get chopped up a bit over the last 2 years though.
On chain activity. This is HUGE right now. Watch active addresses, transaction volume, fees, developer activity, total value locked, and whether people are actually returning to these networks. Utility and revenue/fees will matter moving forward instead of ponzi vapor that defined previous runs.
I checked before writing this and Visa’s on chain analytics now tracks more than $272 billion in circulating stablecoins and $10.2 trillion in adjusted transaction volume over the past 12 months. Those are some fat numbers.
Regulatory direction, which we got a massive look into this week. A failed bill like CLARITY matters less if the certain regulatory agencies continue creating workable paths (the day after lol) for tokenization, stablecoins, custody, and institutional participation
Retail sentiment. Ah yes the hordes of orcs at the gates of Isengard ready for their man flesh (tendies). The best opportunities rarely arrive when everyone feels comfortable and assured that they will make money. They emerge when interest is dead, people are rage quitting/pivoting to stocks, timelines are quiet, and the remaining holders are exhausted. It is the age of retail trading
The Leadership beneath the surface recently. When overlooked tokens begin breaking out, new narratives start attracting capital, and speculative projects like NEARKAT suddenly find traction, it can signal that risk appetite is returning before the broader public notices or has any clue how to even access those plays
All of these data points, signals, and factors play into how you should think about the market comprehensively. Not only do they all for the most part, tell us that crypto is here for the next several decades, but they’re starting to tell us that things are heating up (whether or not prices at large reflect that just yet).
It’s time for you to pay attention again.
Just this week we saw the ever resilient Bitcoin power smash through a slew of negative headlines and remain consistent, chin up in defiance of deteriorating macro and FUD. Failed legislation wasn’t enough to dump the market and in fact, we saw that act as a spark for the space, with regulatory players swooping in to provide guidance and the outer realms of innovation in tokenization buzzing with activity.
In addition to this note, if I could send out a Paul Revere type crypto rider to warn you all yelling “The bull run is coming” I would.
I’m excited man, this stuff is going to have an epic run this time around.
Today we’re going to go over:
The fresh catalysts driving this market
Why I think this one could be the wildest yet
Which assets to hold NOW
Why this might be different than previous cycles
Best practices
Here is the bottom line.
Crypto is going to offer you one of the last chances to transcend social class.
To accumulate wealth.
To “make it”.
To change your life or your families life and secure your future financially.
This matters more than ever in the current world we live in. Inflation is ripping, costs are continuing to climb, gas prices are f*cked from Iran, home ownership is out of reach for millions… there really is only one way out and that is to transcend the wealth gap more rapidly.
You can ignore the opportunity and regret it forever, or simply skate to where the puck is going and get your exposure in order. You want to be early guys. Do not wait and begin making your trading or investment decisions from a position of high emotion, FOMO, or anger.
Let’s get started, there is a lot to cover today and the markets are already cranking.