ARB Letter

ARB Letter

Stay Ahead in Fall 2025

455: You may delay, but time will not

Arbitrage Andy's avatar
Arbitrage Andy
Sep 02, 2025
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Good morning. Hope everyone had a great Labor Day if you’re from the US.

September 2nd is here. Kids are headed back to school, the corporate world is surging back to life as execs return from Europe, vacation homes, and vacation, and the air is turning a bit more brisk.

We are entering the home stretch of 2025 and it’s been quite a year so far. Markets have defied logic, nations are undergoing stark political and cultural changes, and I believe a good amount of individuals are beginning to understand things are likely never reverting to the way they once were.

For many people, Fall is reset season — portfolios, habits, and outlooks all get rebalanced. People either commit to finishing the year strong or they let their goals and habits fall to the wayside and croak out before another year.

This Fall Guide covers markets, geopolitics, and personal reset — three pillars you must align if you want to finish 2025 strong.

Free Sculpture Statue photo and picture
“Autumn asks that we prepare for the future — that we be wise in the ways of gathering and keeping.” – Unknown

If you are unhappy with where you’re at, now is an excellent time to kick it into high gear lest you get to December 28th and realize you’ve fallen short of your goals for 2025.

Another year passed and not much accomplished. Stuck in the same place, job, physical shape, relationship, or patterns.

If you’ve made big strides and progress so far this year then this month provides the perfect opportunity to switch the dial up even further and make sure the next 4 months are the most productive you’ve had so far.

The majority of you already “get” the stakes. You realize that it’s not hyperbole to say that it’s a race against time. Not just in the grander scheme of your life, but in the current global environment.

Most of you:

  • Work in tech, finance, high growth industries

  • Have side income or businesses

  • Prioritize physical health and mental health

  • Understand the importance of accumulating assets rapidly

  • Understand the “truth” does not come from institutions or mainstream media

  • Grasp the major societal and national issues in your respective country right now

  • Realize it’s more important than ever to achieve a high degree of sovereignty

Today’s post is a moment in time sanity check and systems check for those of us who want to stay on the path of success across multiple disciplines.

The final stretch of 2025 isn’t downtime it’s acceleration season. What you do between now and year-end will set the trajectory you carry into 2026. That means staying disciplined in markets, cutting through the noise in geopolitics, and tightening the systems that run your day-to-day life.

The world isn’t easing up. If you’re standing still, you’re already losing ground. Fall is when the pressure ratchets higher in markets, in politics, and at home.

This guide is meant to cut through the fog, surface the real signals, and help you finish the year with intention

If you take nothing else from this guide, take this: don’t let the final months of this year slip away. The clock is running.

Let’s begin with forecasts on the economy, markets, what assets to focus on, etc.

“In reality, every great moment of decision comes too soon. We are never fully prepared. The test of character is whether we move forward anyway.”

– Unknown

Finance, Economy, Markets

Moving into 2026 I strongly believe in being prepared for two outcomes.

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