Something Is Changing Beneath the Surface
534: Anticipating What Is Coming Next
Morning guys.
What a week so far.
As I was doing a light dose of morning doom scrolling with espresso I came across this tweet from Dr. Disclosure on X where he says he is starting to get 2020 Covid vibes.
I paused and thought about this.
I have to be honest, I am not getting 2020 Covid vibes about everything going on, at least not yet.
I distinctly remember Covid. I was sitting in an office and I saw the headline pop up of the first case in New York City. I had been tracking the situation in China loosely and at that moment (seeing it touch down in NYC) I got a distinct vibe I have gotten like 2 or 3 times in my life.
On 9/11
During the BLM/Antifa Riots
In this instance I am describing during the beginning of Covid
It’s a type of fight or flight if you’ve ever experienced that but it’s not as quick or concentrated, it’s when the facade sort of has static and glitches out (I’m going to avoid using the Andrew Tate Matrix analogy, but that is pretty accurate also).
You realize that the train is about to rip off the tracks. The “normal” is at risk. Things have gone very wrong. It is an animal instinct that is stronger than the rules of modern society. It lets you know in your gut that the herd is threatened. Something (whether it is naturally occurring or orchestrated) is looming and you know it is going to disrupt everyone on their daily rabbit paths.
That morning I left work early. Most people would feel social pressure to stay and put their head down or whatever, but I’ve never been programmed like that. I left, hit up home depot for some masks and a respirator, grabbed some food and water and went home.
Less than 48 hours later it was chaos. New York City was wild during that time.
Always listen to your gut.
Anyway back to the current situation. I see where Dr. Disclosure is coming from. The situation unfolding in Iran is unsettling to say the least, we have:
a major regional conflict unfolding
implications for nuclear powers
the potential for homeland attacks in retaliation
the potential for an inadvertent or accidental major escalation
Polymarket even had to remove their odds for a nuclear detonation given public outcry over government insiders who make military decisions being able to insider trade this type of event. Pretty fucking wild. Still, the odds of US Forces entering Iran on the ground by December 31st is sitting at 60% this morning.
Still, I’m not quite at the same level of vibe as when Covid kicked off. That ended up changing the entire world irreparably in my opinion.
Sure, there are some concerning developments and it only take one slip up to kick off something bigger, but at the moment this just feels more like the same “Truman Show” game that’s been rolled out SINCE Covid. More wars. More games. More lies. More money. More distractions.
But things are continuing to evolve, that we cannot deny, and the changes are increasingly quicker. If you do not stay on top of them, you fall further behind and it is more difficult to anticipate what is going to come next (which can help you socially, mentally, and financially).
In today’s post we’re going to walk through a few of the developments that I think you absolutely need to be paying attention to.
From the situation in Iran, to the cracks showing in private credit, to where we stand on the political front, what continued layoffs mean for the average person as well what Bitcoin’s recent move might be telling us about where capital is quietly starting to position.
What’s unfolding right now across markets, geopolitics, and technology is connected in ways most people aren’t seeing yet.
Bitcoin’s Move Higher
One of the more interesting developments over the past 48 hours has been Bitcoin’s relative strength during the escalation with Iran.
When the first strike headlines hit, Bitcoin initially dropped alongside risk assets, briefly falling toward $63,000 as liquidity evaporated across global markets. But the selloff didn’t last long.
Within hours buyers stepped in, and by this morning BTC has pushed back into the $71,000 - $73,000 range, marking a roughly 10% rebound from lows.
Conversely, Gold which of course is the traditional go to safe haven during moments like this, remains near historic highs around $5,100 per ounce, but it has actually softened slightly over the same period.
Sentiment in crypto is poor right now and so is retail interest. But I would urge everyone to zoom out a bit. I think shifting from a month by month view to a multi year view is going to be enormously beneficial for those of trying to capture the biggest upside on the asset side in this batshit insane world.
In this new realm of synthetic markets, insider trading, big headlines, noise, and volatile economic regimes, eventually the math should win.
You know whats coming brother.
I know you know….