Sleeper Picks & Market Corrections
557: Time to Panic or Buy?
Morning lords.
Hope everyone had a great week.
Today we have a good blend of market centric updates, global news, and a final section on some of the sleeper picks in crypto and equities I am purchasing this week.
You can rest assured we have a schizo rant on the horizon as well, given the entire globe seems to be descending into a glorious ideological battle between race communism and nationalism.
Should bode well for us in the next 10-20 years.
Markets
It was a mixed session for U.S. stocks yesterday. The Dow pushed higher, the S&P 500 finished with little changed, and the Nasdaq pulled back as money continued rotating out of some of the largest technology names and into AI infrastructure and semiconductor companies. A trend we’ve seen continue now for some time.
Micron MU 0.00%↑ led the charge after delivering another impressive quarter, sparking a rally across the semiconductor space. They crushed expectations with $41.5 billion in quarterly revenue and adjusted EPS of $25.11, while guiding for an even stronger $50 billion in revenue next quarter.
Management also said memory demand remains exceptionally strong as AI infrastructure spending accelerates, sending shares nearly 16% higher on Thursday.
Sandisk was another standout performer, while several chip equipment and hardware names posted strong gains as investors doubled down on the AI buildout.
On the flip side, Apple AAPL 0.00%↑ weighed on the market after announcing price increases across parts of its product lineup ( MSFT 0.00%↑ did the same with Xbox pricing), with several other mega cap technology stocks also finishing in the red.
Rather than signaling a broader shift away from AI, the trading at the end of this week probably suggests investors are becoming increasingly selective about where they want exposure within certain themes.
The final estimate for first-quarter GDP came in stronger than expected after an upward revision, although the report also revealed that consumer spending was softer than initially reported
The US Dollar hits its highest level to the Japanese Yen in over 2 years, at 161.95 (Kobeissi Letter)
The top Chinese AI firm DeepSeek to double staff across all departments (Polymarket)
Dating app Bumble is reportedly considering a sale due to slowing growth
Beyond Meat is now down 98.98% since going public in May 2019 (PolymarketMoney)
Defense names have taken some hits like our ONDS 0.00%↑ and KTOS 0.00%↑ plays (still holding) and adding.
LMT got a nice little bump after landing a massive $35 billion, seven-year Pentagon contract to dramatically increase production of THAAD missile interceptors as the U.S. moves to replenish depleted stockpiles and expand missile defense capacity.
Wall Street saw added drama this week as a total creature from JPMorgan’s DEI team was fired after stealing a trash can at a local Knick’s celebration parade.
Angie Báez, a senior JPMorgan Chase executive whose career included several high-profile diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) leadership roles (so fake jobs), was caught on video dumping the contents of a limited edition Knicks themed public trash can onto the sidewalk before walking away with the bin.
The footage quickly spread across social media, prompting JPMorgan to terminate her employment. Báez later returned the trash can and was issued fines for littering and interfering with sanitation operations.
Quite the year for JPMorgan after the whole fishhead wife milkers story.
Biotech Plays
One of the more interesting pieces I came across this week wasn't about a specific drug, it was about how FDA approvals actually work and where the market consistently misprices risk.
Looking at 36 FDA approval markets, Polymarket found that most failed approvals weren't because the drugs didn't work, but because of manufacturing issues, inspection delays, or other procedural hurdles.
In other words for those of us with a monkey brain, a "NO" outcome often reflects timing or factory problems rather than scientific failure.
That framework is worth keeping in mind over the coming months.
I am by far a pro in biotech but…..
Unicycive (UNCY) is back in front of the FDA after last year's rejection stemmed from a third-party manufacturing issue rather than concerns about its kidney drug itself.
Other names to watch include Zoryve (from Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT)), Olezarsen (developed by Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS)), Arcalyst (from Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals (KNSA)), and Veligrotug (being developed by Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN)).
The broader takeaway is pretty simple. Not all FDA decisions carry the same risk. Understanding whether a catalyst hinges on manufacturing, efficacy, or a label expansion can provide a meaningful edge over just betting on whether a drug gets approved (which is what most guys tend to do).
You can read the full post from Polymarket HERE.
Crypto
Tough week for crypto brothers, for now the pain appears like it will continue. Bitcoin slipped as low as $58,600 yesterday with Ethereum creeping towards the $1,700 level as another wave of ETF outflows, profit taking, and forced liquidations weighed on the market.
More than $1 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out during the selloff, highlighting just how fragile sentiment remains after weeks of persistent selling pressure. FUD is rampant and many are convinced that Saylor’s Strategy is going to blow up in some turbo liquidation.
That said, I don't think much has changed structurally.
This still feels more like a positioning washout than a collapse in the long term investment case for magical internet coins. In my opinion the biggest headwind continues to be institutional money flowing out of spot Bitcoin ETFs, creating a lack of marginal buyers at the same time macro conditions have become less supportive for risk assets. It seems there ARE some more murmurs of potential rate cuts but nothing is set in stone.
Benjamin Cowen (who we’ve talked about before) and others seem to think October is a likely bottom area for Bitcoin. I don’t know, something still tells me it might be a bit sooner.
Until those ETF flows stabilize, crypto will likely remain on the defensive. As some have said, keep some tabs on Binance and watch until they start scooping again.
Still, there were some outliers (that we will cover towards the end of today’s post).
Michael Saylor's “Strategy” currently has about $14,000,000,000 unrealized loss on its Bitcoin investment
Sharplink bought 5,000 ETH on Thursday
BitGo CEO Mike Belshe announced that the company is reducing its workforce by 15% (The Block)
Efforts are being made to bring the CLARITY Act to a full Senate floor vote before an August recess
I purchased more Bitcoin around the $59,000 level and will continue to do so if we keep going lower.
We’ve seen some pretty intense selling so I would expect us to churn around for awhile or bounce at some point, but again you never know. Longterm is $59,000 a good buy? I would say absolutely.
Will we get the chance to buy some at $40,000? Can’t say, but I am not going to operate on the assumption we will.
If your long term Bitcoin thesis remains intact, this is a gift.
Global News
New York City's political shift to the left accelerated this week as Mayor Zohran Mamdani-backed candidates swept several high-profile Democratic primaries, defeating a number of establishment incumbents and further expanding the influence of the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA) in Congress and the New York state legislature.
Communism seems to be surging inside the heart of the US.
Let me be clear, these victories cement Mamdani as one of the most influential figures on the American left and demonstrate that democratic socialist candidates are gaining traction in some of the country's largest urban centers. Now you know why I left long ago (the writing was on the wall during Covid).
The wins were pretty controversial online. Several of the victorious candidates have advocated positions well to the left of the Democratic mainstream, including abolishing ICE, Medicare for All, ending most U.S. military aid to Israel, and significantly higher taxes on wealth.
Some of these candidates have also faced criticism over past public statements. Darializa Avila Chevalier, for example, drew scrutiny for previous social media posts calling for the abolition of prisons and using profanity toward then Vice President Kamala Harris, while Aber Kawas has been criticized for disgusting past remarks related to 9/11 and other geopolitical issues.
Our country is being subverted and if you can’t see that brother I can’t really help you. It is a deeply concerning trend to say the least. Enabling America hating communists to operate within one of our largest cities.
To top it all off on Thursday NYC officially approved a rent freeze on nearly 1 million rent stabilized apartments in a major win for Sir Commissar Mayor Zohran Mamdani.
We will expand on this next week.
Iran has demanded that FIFA block Pride-related ceremonies & rainbow symbols at its World Cup match against Egypt in Seattle (Polymarket)
The U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6-3 this week that the Trump administration can end Temporary Protected Status for migrants from Haiti and Syria, which puts more than 350,000 Haitians and 6,000 Syrians at risk of losing work permits and deportation protections (Breaking911)
Paris is set to ban alcohol sales from Friday amid heatwave official
John Bolton, a former national security adviser to President Donald Trump, will be arraigned on a charge of retaining national security information and is expected to plead guilty (NBC News)
Malian soldiers and fighters from Russia’s “African Corps” have been accused of killing four civilians in northern Mali (Ua.News)
Zelensky of Ukraine has authorized a 40 day operation against Russian targets, characterized most recently by mass drone strikes inside the country. He said on Thursday that Kyiv’s forces hit two more Russian oil refineries in Ufa, 1,500km (930 miles) from the frontline, and then an oil depot in the Krasnodar region, 300km (180 miles) from Ukraine (TheGuardian)
Immigration In Europe
We spend an inordinate amount of time covering this topic because it really is going to end up being the largest crisis in Europe since the second World War.
Immigration and migrants fueled tension continues to explode across Europe this week after unrest across the UK in the wake of recent stabbings and attacks in Belfast and Southampton, England.
In classic arrogant leftist style Keir Starmer, after stepping down as Prime Minister said: "One of the tests of an outgoing prime minister is whether you leave the country in a better state than [when] you found it. And I am leaving it in a better state"
GFY champ.
The latest testament to the cultural disaster on the European continent is the brutal murder of a 17-year-old known as Louis from Narbonne:
According to information released by the Narbonne prosecutor’s office, the teenager was lured last Friday to a construction site on Quai d’Alsace, where he is believed to have been the victim of an ambush organized by a group of youths (Algerian and Moroccan migrants). He was found unconscious the following day by a worker at the site and rushed to the hospital in critical condition falling into a coma. He died on Tuesday from his injuries.
— EuropeanConservative.Com
There’s virtually ZERO coverage of this anywhere besides X and the site I referenced above. The gang posted a video of the assault I would highly recommend not watching, in which they stomped on his head and beat him in the street.
Amid these heightened discussions and recent events across Europe a new film has generated quite a bit of controversy online and across the globe.
Uwe Boll's Citizen Vigilante follows an American man whose mother is murdered, leading him to lose faith in the justice system and embark on a violent campaign against criminals. Set against the backdrop of Europe's immigration debate, the film blends themes of vigilantism, public safety, and political frustration.
German has banned theatrical distribution.
You can watch it (for now) below:
It’s being banned for a reason.
I watched it yesterday and while the plot can be a bit nonsensical and jump around, it harbors deep cathartic emotion and style when it comes to major issues that remain unaddressed across the West. In my opinion it really does a good job of encapsulating the raw rage people have for what is happening to many nations.
As the film’s protagonist says: I will do this until you learn how to do it yourselves.
Between the growth of communist ideology and the rampant consequences of unchecked immigration, we have our work cut out for us in the West.
Mark my words, things will continue to get worse on this front.
Equity & Crypto Pick Insights
Alright let’s get into some gems that seem to be lurking beneath the surface in this current market volatility.
AAVE had an interesting day yesterday on the heels of a bold new prediction from Standard chartered that suggests a 50x price target, forecasting the DeFi lending token will hit $3,500 by end-2030, up from roughly $70 today (The Block).
After initiating coverage Tuesday led by Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital assets research shared the ambitious target in a recent report.
The argument is that as tokenized real world assets move on chain and Aave's lending activity recovers, the protocol's fee generation, buyback program, and ultimately the value of the AAVE token could increase substantially over the coming decade.
I will plug our Tokenization Guide again HERE.
You’re getting the rare opportunity to build a tokenization war chest during a bear market, don’t ignore it. Prices are low.
For SMCI 0.00%↑ it was the corruption drama, for AAVE it was the KelpDAO exploit. I like names that sell off hard with panic events and will generally take the aftermath as an opportunity to build a contrarian position. I added AAVE yesterday along with some AVAX (FX Street reports that AVAX’s spot and futures markets show large whales' orders).
Yes I also bought more SMCI 0.00%↑ this week along with MSFT.
Someone asked me about my PLTR 0.00%↑ calls recently as well (they expire today). Yeah we got licked on them pretty bad but that’s alright, I bought more common shares and might roll some more calls further out into August. It should go without saying but if you partake in these YOLO Call bets guys, size it appropriately. I am never going to wreck myself on these small gambles.
Other plays I have interest in break down like this:
Optical networking LITE, AAOI
Semiconductor equipment AMAT, KLAC
Defense suppliers LMT, RTX, NOC (majors)
Grid and power plays GEV, ETN, PWR
My general strategy is less about chasing the hype right now and more about scooping up names I feel folks are ditching so they CAN chase hype.
We’re going to get incredibly controversial next week so stay tuned. While we’ve had a nice break from race riots, immigration crackdowns, and political hit jobs, what’s taking place across the US and the globe is giving us some valuable hints about what might be coming in midterms and the next administration.
Spoiler alert: you need to start preparing.
Have a great weekend gents.
We will be back Tuesday.
Andy
I bought Citizen Vigilante Monday before it was available for free. Agree with Andy here - not the best editing/plot pace but the concept/message and action scenes are pretty satisfying.
Since I own it now, I intend to keep using it as an early-stage-dating litmus test.
“If your long term Bitcoin thesis remains intact, this is a gift.”
Bingo.