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TIM's avatar

1) will read Chromosome 6 cuz why not BUT Robin Cook is a terrible author (read Coma years ago)

2) check out Strauss-Howe generational theory if you haven't already done so

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Arbitrage Andy's avatar

lmao will do

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DefNotMatt's avatar

Back 👏 test 👏 your 👏 statements 👏

Why are you writing a finance newsletter with no actual data? Look at the way markets have reacted to past pandemics and wars and base decisions on that. Fear mongering and emotional investing don’t lead to outperformance.

The conspiracy theory stuff is lol. Farmland: have you heard of FarmTogether? AcreTrader? Farmland is a good portfolio diversifier and 31% of american farmland is owned by investor groups. Is continued financialization of asset classes good for society? Maybe yes maybe no, but 600 years of financial history says it will continue either way.

Think of it another way, Imagine you are Bill Gates’ family office CIO. You have $125bn in AUM. Where do you park it? Treasuries? Stocks? Bonds? Even a diversified portfolio is still a whale position. Bill Gates reportedly owns 300k acres of farmland. The US has 911 _million_ acres of farmland. So Bill Gates’ CIO takes a $500M position in farmland for diversity, and it’s only a 0.3% position of AUM, and only 0.04% of the US farmland and you think that’s material?

What is your research process, actually?

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Arbitrage Andy's avatar

I don't understand what here you think is "conspiracy"? It's literally all fact

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DefNotMatt's avatar

Please explain how bill gates owing 0.04% of an asset class is a relevant datapoint to your hypothesis?

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Arbitrage Andy's avatar

I get your finance lense you're looking at this through, but to be fair you're straw manning a single piece of what I said based on a division equation. Private landowners have a monopolistic role in assessing our food systems and choosing our land use patterns, this is objectively concerning considering Bill Gates' views on the Pandemic and comments on population control. You citing the percentage he owns out of all land doesn't mean much, he's not buying land for a return, he's buying it to monopolize farmland and influence it's eventual use. You're talking about a guy who literally said, " I do think all rich countries should move to 100% synthetic beef". I never said it was material. I said it doesn't feel right in conjunction with food processing plant fires, questionable supply chain bottlenecks, and food shortages.

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DefNotMatt's avatar

Can you put this into context though? Or is this anecdotal? If you define monopoly as 51% Bill Gates would need 10x the AUM to build up to that level. This isn’t straw manning; theres a $1.3tn US ag market that no individual has enough assets to control. Your narrative is interesting but show me the data.

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MW Guy's avatar

I'm guessing it is anecdotal. I don’t think Andy has ever pretended to be a purveyor of absolute certainty. He’s calling out several critical issues and letting his readers make of it what they will. Very refreshing in my mind as that is the complete opposite of every other major media publication. Obviously, you’re not worried about the implications of what BG is actively trying to do to the food supply chain. However, I think you would be surprised at the lack of vertical integration w/in the food and Ag sector in general. If one mega whale i.e. BG were to gain massive influence over it specifically and where those outputs were directed (animal feed vs. Imitation Meat), that could have considerable implications to meat prices. Let’s see where the chess pieces move in 6-18 months and revisit?

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