Pre Long Weekend Briefing
280: ETH ETF Approval, China Taiwan
Happy Thursday everyone.
Want to make sure to get this one out before the long weekend begins as I’m sure many of you are watching the clock so you can sign off and add Friday to the weekend unofficially. I plan on inhaling some BBQ, hitting the gun range, and perhaps hitting the local river for some fly fishing.
Memorial Day is Monday and I ask everyone, regardless of your political beliefs to reflect on the freedoms we enjoy in this country and those who payed the ultimate price to preserve those freedoms.
Today we’ve got a quick post to get you up to speed on all relevant financial markets news and geopolitical developments before the long weekend.
Quite a bit has transpired this week:
Iranian President Raisi was killed in a Helicopter crash
The SEC has approved ETH Spot ETFs
China has circled Taiwan
Russia has been expanding operations in Europe
Stocks have softened with NVDA 0.00%↑ outperforming
New email releases shed light on the origin of Covid and weaponization of government branches
Their are some notable vibe shifts as the kids say these days, spanning across politics, markets, and the globe.
The world order is shifting as China and Russia make their intentions known in several key areas of operation, crypto is solidifying itself as a viable and legitimate asset class while legacy markets chop along, and at home in the US its unclear how the next several months leading up to the US election will play out.
We will talk through things to keep an eye on as well as some of the recent updates that can factor into your own personal assessment of how things are trending and what we might expect this year.
Next week we will touch on my 10 Rules of Efficiency that I apply to business, life, and finances as well as put out a more thorough preview of the 2024 election.
"Our debt to the heroic men and valiant women in the service of our country can never be repaid. They have earned our undying gratitude. America will never forget their sacrifices."
- President Harry S. Truman
What You Need To Know About Crypto
Ethereum ETFs have been approved as of yesterday around 4:45pm ET.
Had you been subscribed to Arb Letter premium you would’ve known this was the #1 catalyst driving our short to medium term trades on ETH and various alts/memes.
We will be sure to cover our thoughts on which one comes next in the upcoming weeks. For now, congratulations to all who profited in the last 2 weeks or so — the end of summer and Fall should be super interesting price wise, especially as trading starts for the ETFs.
Speed is picking up in the crypto ETF race with several super positive political trends emerging that could fuel the mass adoption of crypto in the coming years.
If you missed the two crypto posts from the last week or so you can find them below. Highly recommend before things get too crazy.
Wednesday it came out that President Biden will not veto the FIT21 crypto bill if passed today — even our favorite resident insider trader Nancy Pelosi voted in favor of it (how long until she apes into ETH call options?.
If it wasn’t super obvious — this is a monumental shift in US political sentiment towards the crypto industry — which remained one of the major risk factors for not only mass adoption but price action in the next 8-12 months. For years crypto native traders and investors worried endlessly about crypto needing to move offshore.
The SEC wanted to classify ETH as a security, the BTC ETF took forever to pass, and in the wake of the massive blow ups that FTX, Genesis, Celsius and others lit off — anything was possible in the aftermath from a legal standpoint.
US Senator Cynthia Lummis says "there's a bipartisan majority in both chambers of Congress in favor of crypto. The future is very bright." Donald Trump's campaign said this week it will begin accepting contributions through cryptocurrency.
So sentiment is shifting rapidly — in addition we’ve gotten a positive development on the CBDC front which is a threat many in crypto and myself were weary of in the last year or so. For those who didn’t keep up — CBDCs or Central Bank Digital Currencies are a form of centralized government digital currency.
The implications are dire — the ability to freeze funds, allocate them how you choose, and monitor what you purchase are easy with a CBDC.
The politicization of money.
Fortunately today the US House passed a bill to ban the Federal Reserve from creating a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).
Those opposed to crypto or those who may not understand it fully yet are likely getting antsy as more and more positive news continues to come out regarding institutional adoption, pilot programs, and ETF announcements.
I will be putting out some regional specific posts in the coming weeks on Mexico, Africa, and Asia.
The Security State & Big Government
If you’re an Arb Letter regular you’re no stranger to the deluge of recent encroachments against everyday citizens by the US Government and the politicians, corporations, and entities that rule over us. These trends threaten our sovereignty, freedom, and society each and every day.
Since 9/11 — the intelligence agencies have grown rapidly and so has their capability and reach across the world and within the US.
Back in April the Senate voted to reauthorize a powerful surveillance tool deemed critical by the U.S. government for combating terrorism, after overcoming efforts by civil liberties advocates from both the left and right to limit its scope. The vote of 60-34 sends the bill to President Joe Biden, who has championed it. The legislation extends Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, or FISA, for two more years (CBS News).
This bill is incredibly sweeping — solidifying capabilities of intelligence agencies to monitor and spy on basically all aspects of people’s lives as long as FISC (courts) rules it’s legal. Originally the FISA act was implemented to track FOREIGN threats, but now it seems like the scope is creeping into domestic use
This has been abused before, when outlets promoted the false Trump Russia Collusion hoax, and it would seem it is being leveraged again to politically target opposition.
This week Newsweek launched a story claiming Tucker Carlson launched a show on Russian Networks. The story spread like wildfire — left leaning out lets ran with it and even conservatives ate it up calling Carlson a traitor.
Except it was completely baseless and false.
However — given the accusation involved a foreign country it’s very possible a FISA warrant was obtained simply because this “tip” was put out into the world and the context around it involved a foreign power.
Tucker Carlson alleged recently that he was spied on by the NSA around the time he was working to secure an interview with Russian president Vladimir Putin. Now it’s entirely possible some of the Kremlin intermediaries that WERE being monitored were too close to Tucker around the time he was attempting to set up this interview but you can see how thin this line is — particularly if the subject in question is deemed a “political” dissident of the current regime in power.
The FISA renewal raises important questions about when and where these agencies are choosing to monitor domestic citizens with “foreign” links, considering they don’t need a warrant to do so now.
It’s beyond a shadow of a doubt that federal agencies have been partially compromised in recent years.
We’ve seen nearly everything the deep state can throw at Trump play out — the raid in Mar a Lago, RussiaGate, January 6th aftermath, social media bans, all kinds of “criminal” charges, and much more. But none of it has stuck. He’s still not in jail. The FBI was present in the crowd on January 6th and they played a key role in the Governor Whitmer kidnapping plot in Michigan. Read the documents from court if you remain doubtful.
Any doubts you still may have about the weaponization of the three letter agencies and government at this point should be long gone. The bias trends one way — slightly to the left, with a healthy marxist tinge.
More specifically it leans towards the DC uniparty which is comprised of both Democrats and Republicans, as well as organizations and agencies under their sphere of influence. These agencies are now a tool for those in power.
The tiring talking point of the mainstream media and DC uniparty that the “far right” is the greatest threat to democracy is a joke to anyone with half a brain at this point.
So if it’s still unclear — now we know, that the FBI was fully authorized to use deadly force during this raid on Mar A Lago. They have 100% been weaponized, starting in the Obama years, to serve political end goals.
If that discourse wasn’t enough for you check this out. The following link will take you to a series of emails detailing literal treason. The whistleblowers’ email releases reveal that John Kerry actually blocked the FBI and DOJ from arresting several Iranian terrorists and foreign agents on U.S. soil in order to ensure the Iran deal went through without issue.
We found out a few months ago that banks comb their customers’ accounts looking for transactions by clients using terms such as “Trump” or “MAGA” or for “conservative” shops like Bass Pro Shops and Dick’s Sporting Goods.
Back in January U.S. Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) sent a letter to Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas calling out the agency's weaponization of taxpayer dollars to attack conservatives. New reporting revealed that DHS paid leftist academics to create propaganda to “counter” conservatives, under the guise of "media literacy.” (Hawley.Senate).
Taxpayer dollars to counter “political opponents”.
Seems our taxpayer money is being used for all sorts of nefarious things these days doesn’t it?
In a letter shortly after to Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, Hawley calls the propaganda grant “an outrageous use of federal funds and abuse of power. All these funds should be clawed back by the federal government immediately, and anyone involved in making this grant should be fired” (Heartlander News).
It’s easy to get stuck in the same blue vs. red, democrat vs. republican petty arguments and partisan politics but it should be quite clear now who the real enemy is. Those who would seek to lie or obfuscate the truth from the American people and those who hold the truth above all else.
Lying and deception is becoming standard practice in Washington.
We all lose as a result — first because we operate on false narratives and information fed to us — and second, because we pay taxes, follow laws, and fall in line because everyone is in some sick haze of denial, cope, and indifference.
Not sure how much longer this can all go on.
The election result this year — which in a vacuum would be a complete domination Trump win, will show us all what’s really going on. And look, I am not some Trump worshipper as I have explained before. I’m critical of many of the decisions he made during Covid and his lack of ability to counter some of the forces in DC.
But at this point in time he is who the people in power fear the most. it’s quite obvious given the amount of attention he receives and the endless onslaught of attacks.
In order to block the momentum Trump has, those in power will likely have to commit something so egregious even the slowest people will see what’s actually going on. Forcing mail in ballots, drawn out vote counting, and leveraging big tech to censor dissent is one thing — pulling off another win while most of the country is more alert and suffering from inefficient policies is another.
Yesterday 195 Democrats in the US House of Representatives unanimously voted to move forward and allow non-citizens to vote in US elections. 212 Republicans voted unanimously against it. This of course, was an intended consequence of Biden’s border policy this year, with other sinister consequences sure to result from the influx of millions of undocumented and unvetted individuals from all over the world.
Bill Melugin who has been putting out some phenomal reporting on the situation at the Southern Border interviewed a Turkish man this week. What he said was alarming, especially coming from someone who isn’t even from the US. The man who crossed into Jacumba, CA illegally with others others told Melugin that he paid $10k to a cartel to get passage.
He expressed shock at how easy it was to cross the U.S. border with no resistance, telling Melugin Americans should be “worried” about security & who is crossing, “It could be killers and psychopaths” he said.
The border issue is so egregious that it’s obvious there are end goals in mind and that it’s intentional.
Understand that this upcoming election is about far more than “beating Trump” or “removing Biden”.
The establishment fears an anti establishment candidate — be it Trump or anyone else. RFK never had a chance.
Thats how simple this is. The people in power want to perpetuate their stranglehold on their money, influence, and power.
I anticipate some major disruptive event in the coming weeks and months in the US — be it internet blackouts, bird flu, domestic terror, etc.
SOMETHING that allows the powers that be to control the narrative and maintain influence about how this election unfolds. Objectively Trump has insane momentum. Yesterday at a lively rally in the Bronx he brought out rappers Sheff G and Sleepy Hallow to thunderous applause.
Everyone can feel it — the Israel/Hamas protests didn’t quite flow into the the same level of chaos the BLM/Antifa riots of 2020 did. So the question remains — how will they sow unrest this time?
Biden recently agreed to a highly regulated and structured debate with CNN and Trump towards the end of June — so we can be hopeful of an entertaining night but I’d still recommend remaining vigilant as we approach November.
Something is sure to happen.
Not to glaze too hard but I highly suggest listening to the recent Tucker Carlson interview with Erik Prince, the former U.S. Navy SEAL officer, and the founder of the private military company Blackwater. They talk about everything from the surveillance state, to the upcoming election, to regions of the world worth keeping an eye on.
The interview gives you a good idea of just how monitored we are and how much data is being collected on all of us to influence our decisions, mindset, and voting in the US.
Covid Origin
In yet another drop that proves the conspiracy doubters wrong AGAIN we can see an email exchange from the NIH’ Morens to Peter Hotez referencing Anthony Fauci in which Hotez clearly admits they are deleting emails referencing the origins of Covid.
Why would they do that?!
Everyone is going to have to come to their own conclusions on what they believe in the wake of the pandemic but at this point the conspiracy theorists are like 99/99.
It can be uncomfortable to reflect on what took place or wha you chose to do back during the Covid mania — but is critical to do so. We don’t need to repeat the same mistakes during a more serious duplicate event in the future.
You and I were lied to brazenly.'
We must accept that, reflect, and understand how to recognize it when it inevitably happens again or risk making the same mistakes as last time.
There’s a natural yearning to memory hole or ignore the data coming out after the fact — but the truth could not be more clear now.
World organizations, governments, and entities deceived millions of people for profit, power gain, and influence and all we got was a sticker that said “I’m vaxxed” or a coupon for a free burger and fries from Shakeshack.
Geopolitics Developments
This morning Taiwan found itself completely encircled by Chinese forces. If you’ve read Arb Letter or other geo-politcial publications over the last year or so you know this is expected to take place sometime this year.
China’s posturing has gotten more aggressive in recent months.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman said recently that "Taiwan independence forces will be left with their heads broken and blood flowing".
Taiwan is scrambling naval defense, air assets, and their troops to prepare for a possible escalation putting units on the highest alert in recent history.
Is it possible China is going through a dry run before the real thing? Entirely.
In my opinion, this theater is worth keeping an eye on as the US election approaches. A Chinese move on Taiwan would not only disrupt the global semi-conductor market but would also have far reaching security and economic repercussions for the immediate region and the world.
Chinese media seems to be prepping their populace for a potential conflict with plenty of military inspired programs and “hypotheticals”.
We will see how this plays out over the long weekend.
The Russian war machine in Ukraine is continuing to churn and troop numbers are being boosted in surrounding regions.
Last night, Russia removed the light buoys delineating the border between Russia and Estonia in the Narva river. This happened after several previous reports showing that Russia intends to unilaterally change maritime borders with both Finland and Estonia.
Certainly concerning.
At the end of the day all we can do is stay up to speed on these developments and monitor how they can impact us here at home in the US.
The rest of 2024 is sure to be volatile and all of the events and updates discussed today will influence public conversation, sentiment, and decisions as we enter summer.
Enjoy the long weekend, stay based, and I will see you all next week.
Andy
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Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before investing and ensure you have a good understanding of your personal risk tolerance.