Markets Are Shifting, Don't Get Left Behind
353: Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Buying The Dip, Crypto Bounces
Alright alright, good morning lords.
Hope the week is off to a good start.
Spring is here in full effect. Weather is improving, markets look like they want to go vertical at some point, and it’s the official start of veiny season (IYKYK).
Our long standing partner Jay Butler is running their annual tax day sale, so if you need some fresh drivers, loafers, or sleds make sure to check them out for 15% off the entire site.
Just use the discount code: TaxDay26. I am a proponent of the dark brown alligator leather (which I will be rocking south of the equator soon) but they’ve got some solid new additions if you need to supplement your sled fleet.
The vibes in markets shifted pretty obviously yesterday and there could be some early signs of things to come beginning to surface. MSFT 0.00%↑ (which I pointed out last week) had a really solid day yesterday up almost 4% as software names managed to start catching some bids. PLTR 0.00%↑ moved higher well on the heels of President Trump’s truth social post on the company last week.
Even crypto is starting to show some life, liquidating bears yesterday with no mercy as Size Lord Michael Saylor announced another buy of Saylor $1 billion of BTC at $71,902.
Type of energy I am trying to harness. Absolute psycho lol.
This all comes at an odd time when most normies are panicking and LARPING Big Short scenes in their studio apartments.
I pointed out last week and on X over the weekend that I think markets are beginning to get fatigued to the Iran headlines. We saw a similar trend play out with Covid, Ukraine, and the trade war with China/Tariff mania in the beginning of this year.
Aren’t you tired of it all? I am.
I don’t really give a shit if 56 or 59 ships go through the Hormuz or if the next round of peace talks fails before the next meeting goes great.
It’s all noise. It’s going to end eventually, maybe sooner than most realize as Polymarket currently has the odds for peace by June 30th sitting at 60% and climbing.
Are you ready for that impact to markets? Because there is an absurd amount of folks on the sidelines right now.
In my humble opinion, markets want higher.
You can feel it.
I suggest carving out some time to read today’s post before market open.
We will go over:
Institutional buy activity and signals for where the market sits (what JPM and Morgan Stanley are buying)
Equity positions and ETF names I like this week to play a bounce
Bitcoin and crypto’s rally yesterday, what I think the rest of the year holds
The major global news stories breaking this week
Speed is the name of the game in markets. By the time you get 100% comfortable and convinced of something you can rest assured you are late to the party. The reality is the gap between asset owners and folks who don’t own anything is just getting bigger and bigger.
Part of that is because people always try to time markets and nail the absolute bottom or top.
Just accumulate guys. Be patient. As I have said before there is an unprecedented amount of noise in the world today, with much of it designed to force you to cough up your positions and sell them to the next dude who knows we are going higher in due time.
Quite a bit to cover today, let’s get into it before market open.
Morgan Stanley & JPMorgan Are Buying The Dip
First things first. Wall Street is already leaning into the dip.
JPMorgan Chase came out bluntly telling clients to “keep calm and carry on buying the dip,” framing the recent selloff as a macro driven shakeout rather than anything being fundamentally broken.
Morgan Stanley came in and echoed the same tone, calling this a “correction, not a bear market,” and pointing to improving earnings expectations and more reasonable valuations after the pullback.
“Dips driven by geopolitical shocks should ultimately prove to be buying opportunities.”
—Mislav Matejka (Head of Global & European Equity Strategy) JPM
The backdrop they’re highlighting is still pretty constructive all things considered. S&P earnings growth tracking in the low to mid teens, positioning cleaned up a bit, and some of the excess in crowded trades starting to unwind (especially in software which has gotten beaten TF down amid AI hype from Anthropic).
But let’s be realistic here, the message isn’t just “buy everything.”
The nuance is in where they want exposure and what they are actually shilling.