Legendary Iran Rescue Operation Summary
540: Iran Rescue, Hormuz Strait, JPMorgan on Tokenization
Afternoon guys.
Crazy 72 hours. Hope everyone had a good Easter weekend.
Some quick headlines this afternoon.
Jamie Dimon is saying that Private Credit losses will be larger than previously feared
Sam Altman of OpenAI says AI superintelligence is so close, and so disruptive, that the U.S. may need a “new social contract” (Axios/Coindesk)
US M2 money supply has hit a new all time high
Berkshire Hathaway is now sitting on an absurd $373 Billion in cash (Bar Chart)
Republicans are leading net favorability by +5 points ahead of the 2026 midterms (CNN/LeadingReport)
"Trump wants to add nearly $7 trillion to the $39 trillion national debt with his new military budget," (FORTUNE/Unusual Whales)
Polymarket is going to launch a 1:1 USDC-backed crypto collateral token
Japan's 10-year government bond yield rises to 28-year high (Polymarket)
JPMorgan says tokenized real-world assets market could grow to $13 trillion by 2030 (WatcherGuru). Hope you read THIS GUIDE.
BlackRock is planning a Nasdaq 100 ETF in direct challenge to Invesco’s monopoly with QQQ (Eric Balchunas)
The latest news from the Middle East is that Iran has rejected the US ceasefire, demanding a permanent end to war.
President Trump has said there is a deadline of Tuesday before he begins targeting bridges and power plants across Iran. Polymarket odds for a complete ceasefire by the end of this month sit only at 28% as of this morning.
If you missed the top posts from last week you can find them below:
What comes next is anyone’s guess but let’s review the wild events of this weekend and how you can try to make sense of this evolving conflict.
Rescue of US weapons Systems Officer in Iran
In a story reminiscent of Behind Enemy Lines 2.0, the Iran war has a new legendary lore tale.
This weekend it was confirmed by US President Donald Trump that the second member of the F-15E crew shot down over Iran had been rescued in a daring operation involving many different arms of the US military and Special Operations community. The F-15E Strike Eagle was shot down on April 3, 2026.
As a primer for those who aren’t privy, Iran doesn’t rely on one single anti aircraft system, they run a layered, hybrid air defense network built from Russian, domestic, and asymmetric systems.
They have long range S-300 (Russian-made) systems and Bavar-373 (Iranian-built) systems. Medium range Khordad-3 / Khordad-15s (mobile systems), and then MANPADS (the classic shoulder fired system).
It would appear that Trump’s claim of complete air superiority over Iran is not rooted in reality. An A-10 Warthog was also reported to be shot down last week.
While we do not have the man’s name yet (bit strange maybe), we know he was the plane's weapons systems officer (not the pilot) and a Colonel.
The pilot was rescued earlier, but the second recovery was far more complex.
This kind of operation doesn’t happen without the full U.S. special operations stack filled with elite units and pipe hitters that love a firefight, even if it is deep inside hostile territory. It most likely included:
U.S. Air Force Pararescue (PJs) – these are highly trained boots recovery specialists
160th SOAR (Night Stalkers) – leveraged recently in Venezuela. They are low level, night infiltration and exfil experts
DEVGRU - Also known as SEAL Team Six
Delta Force – From what we can tell Delta was used for perimeter security / direct action contingency
JSOC oversight – For mission coordination and execution
It was reported this op involved "hundreds of special forces troops and military personnel".
Supporting layers almost certainly included:
ISR (drones, satellites, signals intel)
Electronic warfare to degrade detection
Air cover staged outside or at the edge of Iranian airspace
Reported CIA counterintelligence operations to confuse IRGC and local forces as to the whereabouts of the downed aviator
Quite the operation and as many were predicting online, you can rest assured there will be a deluge of books, shows, and films made on this rescue.
To understand how complex and daunting this operation was you need a grasp on where it took place. All signs point to the mountainous regions inside Iran, likely in the western corridor in areas tied to the Zagros range, where steep ridgelines, deep valleys, and sparse infrastructure create a near worst case recovery environment.
That matters because you have terrain limiting landing zones, radar exposure increasing in valleys, movement that is slow and dangerous, and comms that are unreliable.
Once the weapons systems officer survived the initial ejection, the situation became a race against time.
He immediately shifted into evasion mode, minimizing his signal, using the terrain for concealment, and waiting for a possible recovery window.
He undoubtedly leveraged his SERE training (Survival Evasion Resistance Escape) to successfully evade the enemy. For those unfamiliar, SERE is a training concept originally pioneered by the British in World War II. Training has evolved over the years but places a high focus on fieldcraft, improvised equipment, water purification, food procurement, self defense and navigation.
SERE training gets granular too. You have to take into account things as specific as where you choose to walk, what vegetation you disrupt, and even smells you might be giving off.
Imagine this guy’s situation.
Deep inside Iran, wounded, with bounties on his head and unfriendly local militias and tribesmen wandering looking for him as IRGC units descend on his position from all angles.
Pretty wild stuff. You are absolutely cooked if you get caught. The US loses leverage and chances are you end up like Sergeant Brodie from homeland within a few weeks or inside some no name prison where a bunch of guys that look like cracked our Jafar’s from Aladdin are screaming at you from behind rusty prison cells.
But this guy apparently went sicko mode to achieve his extraction from the warzone.
Time reported that the Colonel managed to hike up a 7,000-foot mountain ridge line and hide in a crevice to evade capture where he then activated his emergency beacon to be located.
MQ-9 Reaper drones were reportedly used to ensure enemy forces could not get within effective range of the Colonel’s location.
US Forces allegedly seized an abandoned airfield where they set up a makeshift operating base near Isfahan. Isfahan’s Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center (INTC) is Iran's largest nuclear research complex, operating multiple facilities, including research reactors, a fuel production plant, and a uranium conversion facility.
The story does have some “odd” twists to it (which lend some credence to alternative theories popping up online). Apparently the two MC-130 transport planes flown in got "stuck in the sand” which meant US forces had to destroy them to prevent technology from falling into IRGC hands.
You will remember this same scenario took place during the raid to kill Osama Bin Laden in Abbottobad Pakistan. SEALS from Team Six were forced to destroy an advanced Blackhawk when it crashed into the compound.
Iranian media, for what it is worth, claims the wrecked remains show much more than just two planes.
Video footage from the night of the rescue show intense firefights and explosions. Whatever happened, it’s safe to say shit hit the fan hard. US Forces were said to have extracted with the Colonel safely.
No word on casulties.
Maybe we learn in time what really took place but one things for sure, the US military has become much more brazen in its operations this year. Russia and China have to be taking note and adjusting accordingly.
Regardless of your political views or views on this war, if it happened the way they’re telling us it’s pretty epic we have the capability to insert directly into a hostile country, burn millions on equipment, and bring our guys home.
Fog of War and First Hand Accounts
One thing I would keep a close eye on moving forward.
X and the internet were absolutely LITTERED with AI and fake posts. All throughout this conflict the true misinformation and propaganda campaigns have been insane.
You have literal US politicians falling for some of the posts lol.
The amount of AI slop posting has surged like 200x in the past several weeks.
It becomes so crazy you don’t know what to think.
There are also some alternate theories floating around about what this operation in Iran actually was.
FinanceLancelot on X and others believe this was all about uranium and seizing deposits from inside Iran (not THAT far fetched).
The "downed pilot" was a fake cover story for a failed US military operation to capture Iran’s primary stockpile of highly enriched 60% uranium, roughly 440–970 pounds.
The primary stockpile is located at Isfahan, exactly where the pilot was "lost."
This explains why the US heavily bombed the area while "searching" and why the C-130s were destroyed without loss of life.
The C-130s were hit on the ground while the special forces attempted to secure the material. The entire operation became a massive rescue operation to extract the soldiers.—FinananceLancelot
Who knows what actually went down. You can read the full thread here.
The fog of war is real. We likely won’t even have the real story on the pilots for awhile. Does seem a bit odd to use two C-130s but what do I know is that I wouldn’t put any elaborate operation past this administration now after the success we had in Venezuela.
I HAVE to believe Trump wants some type of off ramp option. What better method than physically removing the materials he purports that this entire conflict is about.
Now if you want some excellent first person perspectives and field notes from the ground check out the report Citrini Research dropped. This plays more on the economic and markets side but it’s pretty cool.
They actually sent an analyst to the Strait of Hormuz (on a lord of war type mission) to gather intelligence and investigate what is actually going on. He went with $15,000 cash, some cigars, some zyns, and some recording equipment (that he managed to smuggle past officials in Oman).
Eventually he got a speedboat (with no GPS) and was able to take videos and record the true state of ship flows through the Hormuz.
Their piece is interesting because of the narratives most people cling to when it comes to Hormuz.
The dominant narrative has been simple:
Open = no problem
Closed = oil shock
The reality, as they show in their research, is more nuanced.
The Strait is still active, but it’s no longer neutral.
It’s being managed in real time.
Some ships get through and others don’t. Flows are being redirected, delayed, or quietly rerouted through alternative channels. It’s selective pressure of some sort.
There’s a growing layer of “invisible” oil flows:
Tankers operating without clear tracking
Cargo being rerouted through secondary hubs
Supply that doesn’t show up cleanly in official data
People make judgments and we end up with a market that thinks it understands supply but doesn’t actually see all of it.
What Citrini’s research shows is that this isn’t purely a disruption story, it’s also a distortion story.
Official data is missing a meaningful portion of real world flows, shadow fleets are moving oil outside traditional systems (approved by Iran), and Iran is effectively controlling access without fully shutting anything down. They are charging premiums and making decisions on a case by case basis.
Markets are built on clarity, and this environment offers none lol.
The Strait of Hormuz isn’t this binary switch it’s like a pressure valve being actively adjusted in real time. A massive share of global oil still moves through this corridor, which means even partial disruptions or hidden flows can have outsized consequences for markets and our bags.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see more investment firms and companies begin to rely more heavily on people out in the field, especially with how kinetic certain regions have become across the globe.
For now all eyes are on the deadline put forth by President Trump tomorrow.
Bitcoin has sneakily reclaimed the $70,000 range as Michael Saylor announces a new $300M buy. Ethereum has rallied to $2,164.
The S&P 500 is up slightly alongside the Nasdaq and Dow Jones.
Looks like everyone is waiting for positive news and awaiting Trump’s comments this afternoon. Know this…..
If the ceasefire collapses, this will not stay contained. It turns into full scale economic war almost immediately.
A U.S. strike on Iranian energy infrastructure and power plants would hit the backbone of the country’s economy. You’d likely see even more rolling blackouts across major cities within hours, with cascading effects on communications, water systems, and basic services, which would boost civil unrest and further deteriorate the situation on the ground. Industrial output would stall, supply chains would break down, and internal displacement would start to rise as conditions get worse.
Then we are back to square one.
For now, on the heels of this apparent rescue, it seems like there’s still a narrow chance for an off ramp. The next 24–48 hours matter more than anything we’ve seen so far.
Tomorrow we are going to dive into a markets refresher as well as a review of how to make money online. We will talk through new trends, products, and themes that are selling very well right now.
See you guys then.
Andy
Follow Us on X for More Live Updates
Join the Arbitrage Andy Discord
Arbitrage Andy Shop
Monitor the Situation on Polymarket
Disclaimer - I am a monkey brained former salesman and trader who enjoys writing about crypto, markets, and global events. None of this is to be considered formal financial advice. Always invest in accordance with your own personal risk tolerance and thresholds in mind. God speed.
Awesome post Andy. AI Mark Wahlberg as the "Colonel" coming to a cinema near you Spring 2027.