It's Turn Off Your Brain Season

257: Geopolitical Updates & Markets Review

Mar 08, 2024

Afternoon everyone — a lot to cover today so let’s get started.

Tuesday I put out a review of the crypto market and covered a few scenarios I saw as most probable for playing out in the next several months.

The 2nd one panned out — a 10-20% correction (which shouldn’t really surprise anyone considering how fast and hard we pumped).

The post is linked below for those who are behind the ball or sidelined in crypto.

Meme Coins & Crypto Liftoff

Arbitrage Andy

March 5, 2024

If there was any remaining doubt that crypto is lifting off and is here to stay — it is gone. If there is one crypto post I put out that you should read — it’s this one. I am getting dozens and dozens of DMs on when to enter the market, what to buy, and what strategies to employ and the truth is, it’s a bit frustrating (though expected) given I have been covering this in Arb Letter for the better part of a year and a half.

Read full story

Another alt we aped into today is $ZYN. As I describe in the post linked above — each bull cycle it can be beneficial to allocate 5% to 10% of your trading allocation into shitcoins and meme coins.

People generally get a bad taste in their mouth re: these because 90% of people do not manage risk properly and either invest too much into these names OR bag hold through the blow off top to sit on a worthless bag for years.

When you pick them and allocate responsibly they can provide outsized returns in a very short amount of time. With the cultural and societal significance and spread of Zyn this could be a massive winner if the community builds big enough.

If you want to buy some $ZYN I have linked the instructions below:

HERE

Also happy to announce I will be working closely with Gemini this bull market to get you guys access to certain promotions and keep you updated on developments on their end.

Gemini fought to get back user funds in the Genesis bankruptcy and the announced the below on March 1st:

Successful Resolution of Earn. This week, we announced Gemini’s settlement in principle with Genesis and other creditors in the Genesis Bankruptcy that will, if approved by the Bankruptcy Court, result in all Earn users receiving 100% of their digital assets back in kind (see February 28th update, below). As explained below, for Earn users this means, for example, that if you had lent one bitcoin in the Earn program, you will receive one bitcoin back; you will also receive any and all appreciation of your assets since you lent them into the Earn program.

Worth re-emphasizing that no exchange is 100% foolproof and when you are participating in lending or yield generating protocols there is ALWAYS third party risk. I have used Gemini for 5+ years and have never had any issues — it’s my favorite exchange for my balance I keep active for trading.

If you want to easily buy $PEPE and other crypto you can do so on Gemini with this link. Super easy to set up an account and start trading.

Gemini is the easiest way to buy $PEPE.

Crypto & Markets Update

Crypto markets are moving north — many are likely surprised that we are ranging this high without another dump like the one we saw 48 hours ago.

It’s clear — institutions want BTC exposure and many investors are already bidding up ETH likely to get into position before a potential ETF approval and to participate in various airdrops across the crypto ecosystem.

Trading was once again halted for volatility by Coinbase — generally bullish signal as it means more and more people are trying to get back into their accounts
Bitcoin breached $70,000 briefly today
NVDA 0.00%↑ had an incredibly rapid 10% drop in trading today
Credit card delinquencies at small banks just hit a fresh all-time high of 7.8% according to Bloomberg data
US Debt has surpassed $34 trillion
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BRICS put out a piece this week titled: Central Banks Using Gold as a US Dollar Defense
The Nasdaq hit a new record high this week but has since softened in trading today

Bitcoin reached another ATH of about $69,420 (nice) a few hours ago though some

exchanges showed price over $70,000. Ethereum has also been flirting with $4,000. If you read our premium crypto posts you would’ve gotten into ETH around $3,200. Unless something has changed since I wrote this (11:28 am ET) than we are comfortably ranging near the ATH but have been unable to break through and move into price discovery yet.

We anticipate ETH goes much higher in the coming months with a potential ETF approval sometime in May.

For now — best advice if you’re sidelined is to add on dips and accumulate blue chips over time. Alts are lagging behind meme coins and along with ETH, probably present the best opportunity for outperforming in the medium term.

For more crypto specific commentary check out the numerous crypto guides in the Arb Letter archive.

Global News

Quite a bit going on around the world and in the US this week — here’s a condensed version of the most relevant and recent updates for what we cover here. Next week I will put out an official summary of where 2024 election looks to be headed.

Sweden officially joined NATO this week
A new bill that could ban TikTok in the U.S. gains momentum in Congress.
NASA announced it is preparing for an ‘internet apocalypse’ threat from an impending solar storm by 2025
A Boeing 737 MAX 8 for United Airlines had a landing gear failure during an attempt to land at Houston Airport — marking the most recent issue with commercial flights in the US
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A separate United Airlines Boeing 777 lost it’s tire while taking off from San Francisco this week, crushing cars on the ground
An American Airlines 777-200 collided with a Frontier Airlines A320/321 as it was being pushed back from the gate at Miami Airport (Insider Paper)
The Russian US embassy is warning of an imminent attack in Moscow by 'extremists'
5 people were killed in Gaza from aid packages falling from the sky when at least one parachute didn’t open
Illegal migrants stormed the parliament in Reykjavik, Iceland as a debate starts in the chamber on implementing tougher immigration laws
A US soldier was charged recently with selling secrets on HIMARS, F-22s, rescue helicopters and nuclear missiles

State of The Union Address

President Biden gave the state of the union address last night. Mainstream media is chalking it up as a win for Biden who was unusually alert and loud — no doubt due to the cocktail of uppers he was on (seriously couldn’t have been more obvious).

President Joe Biden delivered a surprisingly high energy address, incorporating spontaneous remarks, emphasizing his efforts on economic matters for the middle class, and highlighting points of contention between the two parties in DC. There were several awkward moments — chief among them when Marjorie Taylor Green heckled Biden about the young woman, Laken Riley, killed by an illegal migrant weeks ago while out on a job near a college campus.

Biden gaffed with a comeback regarding how many are killed by “illegals” a comment being scrutinized by leftist journalists and figureheads online. Biden spent the majority of his time talking about abortion, blue collar America, Democracy, and new cost cuts for bank overcharges.

Depending on who you support or which party has your political allegiance this speech was either:

a.) a complete crock of horseshit with abundant gaslighting and inaccurate facts cited

b.) a well welcomed boost in energy from Biden that may convert some voters

Not here to tell you who’s right.

But the 2024 election is certainly shaping up to be insane — depending on who you ask it’ll be a landslide for either Trump or Biden.

One things for sure — the next several months are going to get pretty intense.

New York Puts Troops In Subway

Yesterday I was linking up with some friends for dinner in NYC for the first time in awhile.

If y’all have read Arb Letter for some time you’re probably aware I lived in NYC for 7 years up through the end of the pandemic. When I was younger I would ride the 6 train to work regularly. At the time it was the classic NYC subway — rats, the occasional lunatic or beggar, and the sauna cars during the summer complete with mysterious smudges all over the hand rails and seats. Gross but pretty normal for a major metro.

After a few bonuses you’d just get in a cab or uber to avoid trips underground.

Yesterday I hopped on the 6 train to rip uptown for the first time in awhile. The car wasn’t very crowded so I sat down, scrolling through the latest shitcoins on twitter that are ripping. At one point I could tell someone was standing over me and the lady next to me. Then I smelled something absolutely disgusting. I looked up and a vagrant was eating his own feces, squished through his fingers and all over his mouth and face.

I shared this on Twitter - and was flooded with people claiming I was lying or that it wasn’t true.

It absolutely happened — everyone on the train was scrambling to get away from this guy, and while it’s one of the wildest things I’ve seen, it’s not far from par for the course for the subway these days.

But it is funny how people immediately claim it’s fake.

Stories like this evoke such a visceral knee jerk reaction from people.

Are they mad that their reality is being shattered?

Are they mad bad things are happening in NYC? Taking it personally? Are they mad someone (like me) is calling attention to it instead of just accepting it as normal?

It’s quite bizzare to be honest.

I’m not quite sure what the problem is — but I can tell you that this episode was nothing compared to things I saw in San Francisco in years ago — people shitting in trash cans, smearing it on windows, and throwing it at people.

The critics and disbelievers must have missed the recent news that New York’s Gov. Kathy Hochul is deploying 750 members of the National Guard and over 250 state and MTA police officers to subway stations to inspect passengers’ bags following a spate of violent incidents across the system.

We’re deploying TROOPS in the subways because they are so chaotic and lawless.

Surely they would do that if everything was safe and sane below ground right?!

This trend of disbelief or shooting the messenger is common in today’s world — it’s not sexy or fun to discuss the rapid decline of the US. It miffs people, they get angry and lash out because you provide a sober picture of the reality of life in major cities across the country. Perhaps they’re insecure they don’t “get” the extent of how bad things are — that is of course, until something happens to them.

The problem with this head in the sand at all costs approach is that things ARE getting worse in our cities and across the country. From violent crime, to complete unchecked illegal immigration, to political divisiveness, and general societal tension — ignoring the problem’s isn’t going to make them go away.

The NYC action with the national guard is concerning on multiple levels — but especially concerning for those of us who are weary of the attempt to normalize the police state. Again — instead of individually targeting those who are constantly causing problems the state has opted to harass everyday citizens and tighten down regulations, procedures all must follow. Surely this isn’t a preview of what’s to come if there were to be a large black swan event in the US before the end of the year…..

Like I mentioned earlier next week we’ll get back into some more in depth assessment of the coming election as well as recent geopolitical developments you should keep an eye on.

Hope everyone has a good weekend.