It's Game Time Kings: Buckle Up
318: Markets Bounce, Election Preview, World News
Future dropped his new album today so you know we wilin.
Happy Friday kings and maidens — I don’t know about you guys but definitely long week for me — forgot what day it was on basically every day besides Monday. Going to need to do some triage this weekend with tequila and negronis. It’s only right.
Today we’re going to sum up markets and global news this week — with a focus on how many of the plays we have covered in Arb Letter are panning out.
We’re fast approaching the 27,000 subscriber mark on Substack with about 25% of subscribers choosing to upgrade to paid for $5/month. A reminder we have an archive of paid posts of 341 archived guides, interviews, and more.
The top ones this year have been:
Top 9 Assets To Hold in 2024
10 Items Every Man Needs in 2024
I want to say something.
Now more than ever — it is important to be in a community of like minded people who are focused on the same values, issues, and events as you are.
The ramp up in censorship, actual misinformation, and bullshit is not a coincidence — various individuals, organizations, and institutions realize how vital it is to maintain control of the narrative and of power in this country and around the globe.
I want to thank all of you for subscribing and helping spread the word about Arb Letter. Don’t underestimate the impact you are having by spreading the word about resources you can rely on for facts and commentary centered around what is ACTUALLY going on around us.
Financial Markets
Big question on the heels of the Fed 50 bps rate cut becomes — how long will we avoid significant sell offs? The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow are doing well — with the S&P and Dow near their all time highs.
Is this a pre-election fake out? Or a sign of things to come?
Executives at the Port of New York and New Jersey are preparing for a potential full-scale work stoppage by the International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA), the largest union for maritime workers in North America.
A strike by the ILA, which represents over 85,000 port workers, could halt operations at five of the 10 busiest ports in North America, affecting a total of 36 ports along the East and Gulf coasts leading to significant supply chain issues.
This disruption would impact nearly half of all monthly U.S. imports, representing billions of dollars in trade. Logistics firms are already developing contingency plans, similar to those implemented during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2018 tariffs (CNBC).
Michael Saylor's MicroStrategy raises ANOTHER $1 billion to purchase more Bitcoin — someone must stop this lord of the size
Gold hits a new all-time high over $2,620
To review the theories and ideas we discussed on Risk On this week:
Rate cuts don’t necessarily mean up only mode — though I expect us to continue to see some good pumps into the election, inflation is likely to return and remain entrenched into the first quarter of next year
Real Estate markets are going to be interesting to watch — homes will likely become more expensive due to the floods of people who want to try and take advantage of lower mortgage rates. Only issue? Supply is still a problem and it will take some time before developers can get the needed supply of new homes online for buyers
Crypto finally getting a nice change with some recent pumps in the wake of the Fed’s rate cut decision.
After the Federal Reserve's recent decision to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, the cryptocurrency market saw a significant boost. Bitcoin surged above $63,000, with Ethereum also experiencing gains, trading around $2,546. Altcoins like Solana outperformed, rising by over 8%.
One look at the Bitcoin chart below — tells me we could be coiled for an ATH pump very soon.
This rate cut seems to be perceived as a positive for cryptocurrencies, as lower interest rates tend to make riskier assets more attractive to investors. Looking ahead, further rate cuts are expected, which could continue to drive interest in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and decentralized finance (DeFi) projects. However, some caution remains about potential economic challenges that might affect the market
Institutional trends continue to look bullish — it’s not just size lords like saylor slurping up supply, banks are getting involved as well.
In a significant development for banks aiming to enter the institutional crypto custody space, BNY Mellon, the largest custodian bank in the U.S., was revealed during public testimony in Wyoming’s Select Committee on Blockchain and Digital Innovation to have received an exemption from adhering to the SEC’s SAB 121 accounting rules for its crypto custody operations.
The top alts I am actively buying include:
Avalanche (AVAX)
AAVE
ChainLink
I look for alts that have bucked the trend in terms of underperforming during the lull over the last several weeks — these ones look good and will help me outperform when we go vertical alongside my long term bags of BTC/ETH and PEPE.
Deep dive on crypto next week.
Geopolitics and Global News
The most recent episode of the Risk On Podcast is linked below — in it I discuss the pager attacks in Lebanon, the indictment of P Diddy, and the recent media reaction and treatment of the second attempt on Donald Trump’s life.
It’s undeniable that a contingent of this country condones and is okay with political violence against their opposition — this is a bleak indicator of what’s to come in this country. Check out this poll data that surfaced from an online survey that Joseph Mackinnon of The Blaze summarized:
Scott Rasmussen's RMG Research conducted an online survey of 1,000 registered voters for the Napolitan News Service earlier this week to gauge the public's response to the latest known attempt on the life of President Donald Trump. Thirty-four percent of respondents figured the Democratic Party or the Harris campaign were involved; 33% suggested foreign governments were involved; and 33% suggested that Trump himself or his campaign orchestrated the elaborate attempt to have a Democratic donor allegedly wait in ambush for 12 hours with a high-powered rifle. Seventeen percent of respondents said it would have been better for Trump to have been slaughtered on the green (JOSEPH MACKINNON/The Blaze)
New transcripts that dropped today reveal Trump did in fact notify the Pentagon of his desire for National Guard on January 6th. Big shocker.
'We don't want to see any escalatory actions by any party' in Middle East: Secretary Blinken
A ship with 20,000 litres of diesel fuel has sunk off the coast of Greenland (InsiderPaper)
Sean “Diddy” Combs has been placed on suicide watch, not a hot take but I bet this dude gets Epsteined soon
Microsoft and nuclear plant owner Constellation have agreed to a massive, unprecedented deal to restart the closed Three Mile Island by 2028 to power its datacenters, per the New York Times. (Mark Nelson X)
Former Chief Border Patrol Agent Aaron Heitke testified before the House Homeland Security Committee that the Biden-Harris administration ordered him to cover up the increase in suspected and known terrorists arrested at the southern border (LeadingReport)
Biden is preparing another $375 million arms aid package for Ukraine according to Reuters
Data obtained by the BBC shows that a rape is reported every hour in London, with over 8,800 incidents reported to the Metropolitan Police in 2023. This averages to 24 rape reports per day. Charities describe the figures as "horrifying," noting that the actual number of offenses is likely much higher. The Metropolitan Police emphasize their commitment to tackling sexual violence and highlight that the number of rape charges has more than doubled since 2022.
Data from Freedom of Information requests to the Met and CPS revealed over 11,000 reports of other sexual crimes in 2023, with nearly a quarter involving victims under 18. The reports, covering 2018 to 2023, include both recent and historical offenses. Two datasets were analyzed: one focused on rape and another covering sexual assault, penetration, and attempted rape.
The total number of sexual crimes reported rose by 14% during this period, reaching nearly 20,000 incidents.
Large urban cities around the world are becoming much more unsafe due to crime, unchecked illegal immigration, and soft on crime laws. Why aren’t we protecting our women?
As we approach the election — be on the look out for some major distractions. Most of our predictions in our paid versions of Arb Letter have come true in the last 6 months including the assassination attempts on Trump, the Fed’s decision, and the growing problems from illegal immigration across Western countries. I said on Risk on that I anticipate ANOTHER attempt on Trump’s life before election day. It’s clear at this point that those in power at the moment are willing to try anything in order to prevent him from getting back into office.
We also discuss the capacity for an escalation in the Middle East, which we saw in some extent this week with the efforts by Israeli intelligence to disrupt Hezbollah networks with their devious and effective pager attacks that killed 12 militants and injured over 3,000. It’s a good reminder that warfare is evolving very quickly — first it was drones in Ukraine and now it’s the remote detonation of electronic devices from hundreds of miles away.
If you want a refresher of the post where I covered most of the possible black swans I see coming in the next two months check out the post below.
The state of this election and US politics is an utter joke right now.
Joe Biden just held a full Cabinet meeting today — and he turned it over to his wife immediately who sat at the head of the table addressing officials and politicians. Who elected Jill Biden? Why is she addressing the cabinet? Why are Americans okay with the fact the media blatantly lied to our faces about Joe being fit to be President? Why was 40% of the country fine with Kamala, who is entirely unelected and under-qualified, being the nominee for the Democratic party?
Do we even have a president at this point?
The answer is no — we have a regime. A regime that is clearly hell bent on maintaining the status quo in Washington so they can continue to give away our money, enrich themselves, and continue to stand by policies that end up hurting our country.
This is an apolitical observation. Doesn’t matter how much you hate Trump.
Two assassination attempts later, Trump is still standing. The January 6th narrative is crumbling, Zuckerberg has told us they have been censoring us and lying to us for years, the FBI, DHS, and Secret Service is likely compromised, election interference efforts are already underway as states refuse to remove ineligible voters from ballots, and the media continues to mislead the entire country on illegal immigration, crime, and more.
Don’t fall for the same bullshit again guys — I’m begging you.
It’s never been more obvious what’s going on in this country and across the West, as our leaders escalate foreign wars, allow crime and illegal immigration to break down our societies, and use censorship to silence all dissent or critical thinkers.
Without patting ourselves on the back — this is the exact environment I have been warning about for months if not years at this point. I’ve gotten my validation and vindication multiple times over. Despite critics and mainstream kool aid drinkers trying their best to cast doubt on it — the reality we have painted is becoming more and more apparent as the lies break down and the situation across the country and world worsens as a result of this administration’s policies.
Buckle up folks — there’s going to be a lot to talk about in the immediate future.
Short post today — we will be back next week with some crypto posts and a new episode of the Risk On podcast. Appreciate the support you guys show on here, Instagram, Twitter, and Spotify.
Big couple months coming up.
Andy
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Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before investing and ensure you have a good understanding of your personal risk tolerance.
People continue to fall for the BS even after being told to their face it was made up. Appreciate the post.
Love the action but starting to feel like Microstrategy is posing some kind of existential risk.