Is The Market Reset Over?
574: Citadel Equity Analysis, Crypto Hack Protection, Tech Rips
Morning guys.
Today’s one of those posts I consider table stakes for any young investor who wants to be informed of the most important issues at stake this month (and year).
Markets are moving fast, narratives are changing by the hour, and several of the biggest macro stories are colliding at once. The next few weeks could prove pivotal, shaping not only how markets finish 2026, but also the positioning investors carry into next year.
If you missed last week’s e-commerce guide to start your online business, you can read it below. Do not wait until the Fall to get this firing guys. The time to act if you want to make headway on this in 2026 is now.
Interesting week so far for sure.
Equities just ripped higher on easing geopolitical fears in the Middle East (or at least Trump saying they are easing), crypto is entering what could be a defining week for U.S. regulation, and the market is attempting to find new levels for AI and tech related companies.
Quite a bit to go over today but among other things we will cover:
Why stocks just staged one of their strongest rallies in weeks, and whether there’s room for more.
What Citadel is saying about where we are in the bull market
What names I am doubling down on? Which of our stock picks from paid guides are printing right now.
Why the CLARITY Act may be entering its final realistic window before Congress leaves Washington for Summer, and what that means for your bags of Bitcoin, Ethereum into year end.
How to think about the recent crypto hack with ColdCard ($100M+ stolen). Are other options safe for use?
As always, the goal isn't simply to follow the news, it's to understand what actually matters before everyone else snaps back from their lazy summer lull.
Let’s get into it.
Clarity Act Window Closing
The crypto market’s attention has shifted back to Washington.
After months of optimism surrounding the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act, the legislation is entering what may be (and what we pray is) its final realistic window before Congress leaves for their nice little August recess.
Here’s where things stand as of yesterday:
The bill has already cleared the House and advanced through the Senate Banking Committee
It is officially on the Senate legislative calendar, meaning it is eligible for a floor vote
But it still has no scheduled vote
You can view the latest odds on Polymarket.com for Clarity below. Will be good to monitor any big changes as the week progresses but odds sit at 27% this gets signed into law this year.
To overcome a filibuster, the legislation will likely need 60 votes which means roughly 7 Democratic senators must ultimately support cloture (the procedure to end a legislative debate and force an immediate vote).
While a handful of Democrats had supported earlier committee versions negotiations since then things have really stalled over several issues including:
ethics provisions surrounding government official’s crypto activities (*cough Trump)
consumer protection language
stablecoin related banking concerns (this is where we got all the early objections from Coinbase and major banks)
Here is the TLDR.
For markets, the biggest risk here is this drawn out regulatory uncertainty.
Without the CLARITY Act, the SEC/CFTC turf war remains largely unresolved, leaving exchanges, token issuers, and crypto businesses operating in a frustrating legal limbo.
While I am pretty sure Bitcoin and Ethereum will likely remain driven primarily by macro liquidity, if this doesn’t go through we will likely see companies like Coinbase, Robinhood, Circle could face renewed pressure as regulatory clarity is pushed further into the future.
Will be interesting to see what comes next. Either way you should be ready to take advantage of the outcome as we move into Fall time. Have some dry powder, but be ready to move quick if we get some surprise catalyst between now and September/October.
One thing I will note is that I like this relative consistency by Bitcoin even if it is super boring.
Crypto Security Review - *Make Sure You Read This
Always a bummer when I have to cover a story like this.
One of the biggest security stories in crypto last week wasn't an exchange hack or phishing campaign, it was a flaw in one of Bitcoin's most respected hardware wallets Coldcard.
The event is leading many people to ask: is my crypto safe or at risk right now?
Could this happen with the other cold storage options?