ARB Letter

ARB Letter

How to Get Rich While our System Unravels

497: Owning the Future When Everything Feels Broken

Arbitrage Andy's avatar
Arbitrage Andy
Nov 11, 2025
∙ Paid

Morning guys.

In the last several weeks we’ve gotten some pretty wild headlines that paint an accurate (and disturbing) image of where we are economically in the year 2025.

It seems like everyone has really been on autopilot since the money printing days of Covid, trying to get by and make some sense of the world around us. To be fair, it’s been a pretty insane few years. Politics has devolved to a new low, the corporate world has transformed since the days of remote work and Warzone.

Millions of people are wondering how they are going to make it economically.

To be honest when I am out and about even I wonder how the hell certain people are surviving. The other night I went to a low key pizza joint in our hometown to grab 4 slices for my wife and I — the total was $24.95.

I had a conversation with my brother, an engineer in California about where all of this is headed. He and I got into the Mamdani victory and WHY young people are feeling the need to support socialism.

People are becoming increasingly desperate and they are not getting solutions or answers from the current system. You cannot absolve them of all responsibility or convince them all that socialism is not the answer but the fact is: things are deteriorating, it is getting VERY difficult out there for your average person. Our environment, at least in the US and West is emblematic of late stage capitalism.

An environment characterized by extreme wealth concentration, corporate dominance, and societal decay beneath a surface of technological and consumer abundance.

Elon Musk just secured a $1 Trillion dollar pay day lol. It takes $1.2M to buy a home that your parents bought for $200,000. We are in a regime where many asset classes are at or near historically high valuations. The lower and lower middle class passes the days with dopamine and the classic circus/bread Roman illusion.

The job market is wobbling (covered in our recent AI post), salaries are not rising, and on top of the economic factors you have an increasingly hostile political landscape. In Europe you are seeing a disturbing trend of CBDC initiatives and surveillance finance rolling out.

Some, like Ray Dalio think we are on the precipice of a civil war, revolution, or massive economic black swan/calamity.

Welcome to the Everything Bubble

Even if you don’t believe in the theories that the dollar will be replaced or that all markets will collapse you cannot escape the looming warnings all around us.

US debt is at $38 Trillion.

The top 1 percent own 43 percent of all global financial assets.

Global debt has exploded past $324 trillion, the fastest jump since the pandemic.

The idea of 50 year mortgages is now being thrown around because nobody can afford a home.

The number one question you have to ask yourself right now is similar to a game of chicken.

Will the Federal Reserve/Trump Administration collide with some massive financial reckoning head on? What will the next administration do if things get worse and worse?

Or will they inevitably swerve last minute to avoid calamity, no matter the cost?

What is the end game here? And what does all of this mean for us? For our portfolios? For our chance at gaining any type of financial mobility or true freedom?

Are most destined to be wage slaves forever?

As a 33 year old father of two running his own business and trying to figure out how best to navigate this new world, today I want to share my comprehensive point in time thoughts on the “everything bubble” we find ourselves in. I seriously can’t envision what type of work my two sons will do one day, if college will still be worth it, and what that world will look like.

Political tensions are so bad I fully expect armed conflict in my lifetime or my son’s. Inflation and money printing have done a number on middle and lower classes, who are close to being priced out of the top forever.

There really are limited options left.

Stack cash, push it into assets, and get your ticket punched on the next leg up. You get a handful of opportunities in this life to “make it” or set yourself up for good - this is one of those times, except this time we might be looking at the big one.

The time when everyone expected a rational reset of the system that never came — instead our elite are choosing to pull the ladder up and skyrocket asset prices into the stratosphere where a very few will continue to be able to afford even a moderately comfortable life.

Today we’re doing a deep dive into all assets I hold:

We will start with equities, then move into crypto reviewing asset percentage allocations, short term catalysts, and why I think you’re crazy if you’re not holding most of these in the coming decade. This is essentially table stakes asset allocation for those looking to ensure they rise alongside the hot air coming to markets.

As we will discuss today, there is really only one play left.

The entire empire has sunk into a quagmire of extravagance from which they cannot extricate themselves.


― Liu Cixin

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