Morning, happy Friday all.
Given the data release this morning, I wanted to get an update out before the weekend.
I’m thinking we’re almost back in BANDO PRINTING SEASON.
Inflation came in cooler than markets expected in September. This is a strong tailwind for risk assets heading into next week’s Fed meeting.
The latest data showed consumer prices rising just 0.3% on the month, with annual inflation steady around 3%. Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, ticked up only 0.2%, another sign that price pressures are easing a bit.
Next up?
Papa Jerome.
These numbers reinforce the growing case for another rate cut (or two), keeping liquidity flowing and the bullish backdrop for equities, crypto, and other risk-on plays very much alive. As I have been saying we’ve been navigating a murky, noise filled range that has freaked people out and led many to panic sell.
We are building for a biblical up only season soon.
You can feel it. It will be max pain for all of those sidelined or distracted with the tariff headlines that change every 6 hours and the bearish propaganda flooding all of our timelines.
Big banks are finally hinting that the liquidity squeeze may be over. JPMorgan and Bank of America now expect the Fed to wrap up its quantitative tightening program soon WHICH IS THE major signal that balance sheet runoff is ending and the liquidity tide is turning.
Every cycle since 2009 has seen markets rip higher once QT gives way to easing, and if they’re right, we could be staring at the next big leg up for risk assets.
Markets now see a ~95%+ probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the upcoming meeting. For the full year, the odds for multiple cuts remain strong with estimates suggest two or more cuts are on the table.
You’ve made it this far lords. Green candles are on the horizon. Isolated wins we’ve had here like AMD 0.00%↑ PLTR 0.00%↑ BBAI 0.00%↑ and others are great, but we want to be positioned to outperform broadly with the next narrative change. Once we get out of the woods in the next two weeks it will be clear if our efforts to buckle down during this period of volatility and doubt will pay off enormously.
Today we’re walking through:
My current equity and crypto portfolios
Two major updates from institutions on the crypto front
A short idea and interesting long idea in fintech from this week
The top headlines from this week to know before the weekend
Feels like we are about to enter a new market era where people are caught by surprise if they aren’t paying attention.
If you’ve been tuned in the last few months, you know what’s coming. The data, positioning, and institutional shifts are all aligning for something big.
What happens over the next few weeks will separate those who stayed focused from those who blinked.
TLDR? Printer is turning back on soon and you better be f*cking ready.
It is almost a tautology in capital markets that the best investments are those with the worst previous returns, where expectations are low, demand is down, and prospects appear at best highly uncertain.