Goldman Sachs Lays Off 1,300
312: Labor Day Round Up - What You Need To Know
Happy Friday everyone. If you’re anything like me you’re going to smile on the morning meetings or zoom calls today and then disappear into the sweet sweet void that is the long weekend.
The Modelos will probably enter the stage at around 12:35pm ET.
But with that in mind we won’t be doing a Monday post so wanted to get this out to all of you before we clock out entirely.
For free subs — if you’re interested in access to all 310+ articles and guides in Arb Letter outside free news posts consider subscribing for less than a large gatorade each month. Some of the top posts of the last 2 months are below:
Markets
Markets have lost a bit of their edge since open though that seems to be reversing again as of 3:02pm ET. NVDA 0.00%↑ has underperformed after a decent earnings report. Wall Street reacted positively to the latest update on the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, revealing that prices rose as anticipated in July.
"Core" inflation — excluding food and energy costs — increased by 0.2% month-over-month, in line with projections.
The annual rate remained steady at 2.6%, matching June's figure and falling short of the predicted 2.7%.
The labor market continues to degrade on the heels of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ -800K job revision earlier this month. Right before market close $2.8 trillion asset manager Goldman Sachs announced it has fired 1,300 employees who were “underperforming”.
Crypto continues to underperform equities, with Bitcoin falling to $58,000 and Ethereum falling to $2,450 (though this has reversed slightly since 1pm ET). Many alts and meme coins are down significantly from their local tops in the past two months. This is a game of attrition. Those who were in this for quick gains and going to be punished, those with patience and conviction will weather the storm.
My read on sentiment in crypto is that it is close to all time lows — one more major dump would shake out tourists and traders trying to get cute with leverage.
Traders see the US Fed delivering 25 bps cut in Sept, 100 bps by year-end, per Reuters (Unusual Whales)
Libya’s crude oil production has been cut by 63% due to recent unrest in the country, country’s National Oil Corp. says in release (ZeroHedge)
22 million Americans are millionaires, which is roughly one in 15 people, according to a recent UBS global wealth report (Spectator Index)
CNBC and other reports/commentary have indicated that crypto donations to Donald Trump's campaign are far outpacing all other corporate donations
Trump said this week he will make the United States the "crypto capital of the planet"
Over 110 businesses are now building on Bitcoin in Africa (Bitcoin Magazine)
94% of all Bitcoin supply has been distributed
Intel INTC 0.00%↑ has recovered a bit today. Gamestop GME 0.00%↑ interestingly continues to pump through week end. The company announced in an SEC filing on Tuesday, that it had voluntarily terminated a $250 million credit agreement that the company had entered into in November 2021.
I have doubled down on my gun/ammo name bets from November to February 2025 with more POWW 0.00%↑ calls. I remain long my calls on SWBI 0.00%↑ with tapered expiries in October, December, and in 2025. I am considering adding some positions on RGR 0.00%↑ .
Keep in mind many different catalysts can spur these to move higher more quickly. Unrest, escalations in Ukraine or the Middle East in which much more ammunition is needed, or if people are getting the sense that Kamala Harris will win the election.
Size your bets appropriately but this is one of my favorite cyclic plays.
Geopolitical Updates To Note
President Nicolás Maduro's government attributed a widespread power outage in the capital Caracas and other regions of the country on Friday to "electrical sabotage," though no evidence was provided to support the claim.
Communications Minister Freddy Ñáñez stated in a voice message on Telegram that all 24 of Venezuela's states had been at least partially affected, describing the outage as a "desperate" effort by Maduro's opponents to forcefully remove him from office.
A Ukrainian military source informed the BBC that one of the F-16 fighter jets supplied by NATO allies to Ukraine has been destroyed. The aircraft was lost amid a massive Russian missile barrage on Monday, resulting in the death of pilot Oleksiy Mes, according to Ukraine's military. This incident marks the first loss of such a jet since their delivery earlier this month. '
The Ukrainian military claims the crash was not directly caused by an enemy missile strike. They noted that the pilot had successfully taken down three cruise missiles and one drone during Russia's largest aerial assault to date.
Venezuela has reported power failure across country
13-year-old boy has died after being stabbed in Oldbury, England
A Kansas City chef fatally shot by teens outside his of his restaurant: locals said “he was community”
25% of all employed Canadians now work for the government (Statistics Canada, Better Dwelling)
The United Nations is allegedly “terrified” at the prospect of a second Trump presidency should he win, according to a leaked conversation with a senior official at the global agency (LeadingReport)
Elon Musk has intensified his online assaults on a Supreme Court judge, whom he labeled "an evil dictator," amid a heated conflict over the potential suspension of the social media platform X in Brazil.
Justice Alexandre de Moraes (who looks a bit like Darth Sidious) had issued an ultimatum to Musk, demanding the appointment of a new legal representative for the company in Brazil and the resolution of any unpaid daily fines within 24 hours, threatening to suspend X if these conditions were not met.
This is an expansion of the fight for free speech we are seeing play out on a global scale first with the detainment and charging of Pavel Durov of Telegram and the recent admission by META CEO Mark Zuckerberg regarding the suppression of content and censorship the company conducted at the direction of the Biden Administration and federal agencies.
Aurora Colorado update
If you read our post earlier this week you are aware of the deteriorating situation in Aurora and other towns in Colorado. Aurora hit social media earlier this week when a video surfaced from a councilwomen of Venezuelan armed gang members storming an apartment building with rifles and handguns. Reports on social media from residents and videos show dozens and dozens of these gang members
Initially in the week local officials and law enforcement tried to downplay the situation, with some even outright denying the events all-together. The tone has changed as more and more evidence has surfaced online. The Aurora Police Department posted the following on August 28th:
“The city and Aurora Police Department, as previously stated, established a special task force in collaboration with other local, state and federal partners to specifically address concerns about Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua (TdA) and other criminal activity affecting migrant communities. We are grateful that the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), a valuable federal partner, has acknowledged its ongoing work into TdA across the metro and appreciate the additional resources it provides to combat this issue”
Mayor Mike Coffman said on Fox News multiple apartment buildings have now been taken over by the armed gangs.
Denver Mayor Johnson said this year “A much bigger risk is a perception that the newcomers are dangerous".
Tren de Aragua is the gang suspected to have taken a hold on the city and other areas in Colorado (they’ve also been spotted in NYC). Tren de Aragua, Venezuela's largest criminal organization with more than 5,000 members, is led by Héctor Rusthenford Guerrero Flores, who is also known as "Niño Guerrero." While Guerrero was imprisoned in Tocorón prison, the facility served as the gang's de facto headquarters at that time.
Amidst the Venezuelan refugee crisis, the gang has spread across Latin America and the United States, expanding alongside the migration of Venezuelans to host countries. This is one gang of many that have slipped through our open borders. Cartels, terror groups, and other extremists have also made their way in, expanding operations across a whole host of states.
We will see more and more of this if the situation at the Southern Border is not rectified quickly. There is an argument to be made that this is already well out of hand.
Kamala Harris & Tim Walz Interview
The Kamala Harris & Tim Walz “interview” aired on CNN last night. My initial thoughts were:
All participants seemed anxious and nervous including Dana Bush of CNN
I think Dana actually asked good questions and was fair
It was not a good showing, Kamala did not list ANY specifics
Kamala failed to answer basic questions from Dana Bush of CNN
Walz directly avoided a question about his Stolen Valor, saying it was a “grammar mistake”
Despite CNN have a “LIVE” ticker on the Chyron, it was not in fact a live interview
It appeared Kamala was referencing notes, and did not hold eye contact with Dana
The interview was incredibly short (maybe 10 minutes of total footage)
This is an objective take — anyone defending this interview is being disingenuous. It was awful, and yet there are still droves of people defending it or becoming aggressive online when they see criticism.
The length was a joke, it was pre-recorded, and nobody is really sure why Walz had to be on there at all.
I maintain my position that the MAJORITY of pro Kamala voters are simply Anti Trump. That’s all it’s about. How could it be about anything else when there’s no policies, specifics, or plans being discussed? It’s all non sequitur, nonsense, and stories about her childhood.
In one example on Israel — she said "far too many innocent Palestinians have been killed," but that she would not change any policy on withholding even "some" US weapons to Israel. It was a bunch of contradictions that she attempted to make sound like good policy. There wasn’t any pointed analysis or thoughts on this issue and others brought up, including the border.
She tried to downplay her role in the Biden administration’s allowance of millions of unvetted illegals coming into the US by saying she had prosecuted some of these people historically.
Social Media and users on X were highly critical of the interview with some calling out the fact that Kamala didn’t answer a question and others pointing out that she refused to separate herself from the Biden Harris economic record. Even the New York Times Opinion column dropped an article called: A Vague, Vacuous TV Interview Didn’t Help Kamala Harris.
I’m simply calling it like I see it — it’s obvious why the Harris Campaign has been avoiding interviews, this was terrible.
No policy was discussed, specifics were entirely avoided and everyone involved seemed anxious as hell. Just based on the performance last night I’m not sure how anyone can logically think Harris stands a chance in office when much more serious issues arise.
Word salad was abundant.
A last note.
Bit of really devastating news out of New Jersey in which Sean Higgins, 43, of Woodstown, NJ, a total scumbag, is charged with two counts of death by auto of Johnny and Matthew Gaudreau. The brothers were riding bikes together in Oldmans Township, New Jersey on Thursday when they were hit by Higgins’ Jeep just after 8 p.m. — Higgins was drunk, stayed at the scene and was taken into custody, police said (CBS). The brothers were in town for their sisters wedding today.
Makes me sick to my fucking stomach.
Have fun this weekend but please be safe and don’t fucking drink and drive. This is an incredibly tragic and completely avoidable event that has no irreparably changed a family forever.
I will see all of you next week.
Andy
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Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before investing and ensure you have a good understanding of your personal risk tolerance.
A real class act to mention two otherwise nameless people in your post, you have a great positive attitude to life and are more than just an economic authority.
$Zyn stays in…. Have a great weekend folks, thanks for the updates!