Fortune Favors the Unhinged
309: Risk Is the Price of Admission in 2025
Good morning all - hope you had a great weekend and survivable Monday.
We have a lot going on this week to cover, probably going to end up doing three posts in total. One today, one tomorrow, and one on Thursday morning as well.
On the docket to cover this week:
Today’s post on risk and leveraging conviction to outperform in markets and life. Will be very important re: crypto
The Cybertruck giveaway with Gemini (I will talk about this in an X thread today and in a newsletter this week, if you want to get ahead of the curve check it out HERE.
Crypto regulatory updates including the passing of The GENIUS Act yesterday — that will establish a regulatory framework for stable coins in the United States (hyper bullish)
An analysis of Moody's downgrading its U.S. credit outlook from "stable" to "negative," citing rising fiscal deficits and political dysfunction threatening the country’s ability to manage its debt (we saw some of the sentiment associated with this bleed into trading yesterday). Will give my thoughts on this tomorrow as well as a review of equity markets and global news
In case you missed it — Arb Letter is officially the #1 rising publication on Substack for crypto. Want to thank all you guys for supporting and contributing to this success we’ve had. Since inception I have focused on simple, straightforward strategies for making money in the crypto space through multiple bull cycles. I will continue to cover markets, crypto, and more to hopefully give you guys the edge 30,000+ of you around the world have found here.
With the market chop and uncertainty ramping up a bit again I wanted to focus on a concept that’s been very instrumental in success I’ve seen in life so far, particularly on the finance & business front:
Risk taking and by extension not being afraid to go against the herd.
Life is a series of choices and gambles we make everyday that contribute to positive or negative outcomes.
Risk is relative to a lot of people as is their tolerance. For example, some would be appalled at the idea of quitting your day job to start your own business. Others might think at this point that’s one of the only ways to generate real wealth.
Some people might think it’s insane to put $50,000 on PEPE or XRP. Others might think it’s a swing at a home run with nice probability.
Some might think its terrifying asking out the 10/10 girl at the bar — others might just say “f*ck it, what do I have to lose?” and maybe that girl becomes their wife. Maybe she says kick rocks….
I have always tried to go by the saying nothing ventured nothing gained. Nowadays it’s becoming increasingly important to take calculated risks AND very often go against what the herd or masses are doing to succeed.
On the financial front the truth is — you NEED to go against the herd to make good money the majority of the time, IF you want to be early.
Today we’ll talk about these themes as they relate to the current crypto market, equity market, and employment sides of things and talk through where I see those who are willing to take some risk and stick with conviction can make some serious money and progress this year.
I get the sneaking feeling we are on the cusp of some MAJOR moves that are going to do one of two things for people. Make people realize the risks/conviction they had were the right choice or highlight that too much caution and hesitancy ended up making the situation much worse for themselves individually.
Zero time to waste this week so let’s get started.
“So we shall let the reader answer this question for himself: who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed?”
― Hunter S. Thompson