Final Countdown: Markets, Geopolitics & Chaos Before the Holiday Freeze
362: Merry Christmas & Happy Holidays
Good afternoon kings — it’s time to hunker down for Christmas and the holidays.
Hope the week is light for everyone and you get to clock out soon to get some well deserved R&R. This is going to be an odd week and engagement is traditionally low, so depending on what happens in market and global news this will be the main post this week for all updates until next week.
If you are looking to get up to speed on crypto over the break you can check out the top posts of 2024 below:
The Crypto Money Printer is On
Make Money This Bull Cycle
Markets & Crypto
As of this afternoon (12:24pm ET), U.S. stock markets are showing mixed performance as investors navigate various economic factors.
Market Overview:
S&P 500: Slightly up, reflecting modest gains.
Dow Jones Industrial Average: Experiencing a minor decline.
Nasdaq Composite: Posting positive movement, driven by strength in technology stocks.
Russell 2000: Down slightly, indicating softness in smaller-cap stocks.
Key Drivers:
A last-minute government funding bill has helped ease concerns of a shutdown, providing some stability to the markets. However, uncertainty remains as investors process the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates, with fewer expected cuts in 2025.
Economic data shows continued resilience, with strong job growth and inflation gradually easing. This combination has created a cautious yet optimistic atmosphere heading into the holidays.
Sector Performance:
Technology: Major tech players like Nvidia and Tesla are seeing gains, helping lift the Nasdaq.
Healthcare: Shares in Eli Lilly are rising following the approval of new treatments.
Investor Sentiment:
The outlook for the traditional “Santa Claus rally” remains uncertain, as market volatility and economic factors create a more unpredictable environment for the year-end.
Holiday Trading:
Markets will observe adjusted trading hours during the holiday week, with early closures on December 24 and a full closure on December 25. Investors are advised to keep an eye on market liquidity and potential volatility during this period.
Overall, the markets are treading carefully, with mixed signals heading into the final stretch of the year. Top updates below:
Nokia has filed a patent for a digital asset encryption device, signaling a move into blockchain security.
Michael Saylor is at it again tweeting: MicroStrategy has acquired 5,262 BTC for ~$561 million at ~$106,662 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 47.4% QTD and 73.7% YTD. As of 12/22/2024, we hodl 444,262 BTC acquired for ~$27.7 billion at ~$62,257 per bitcoin.
The IRS says crypto staking is taxable (not sure who thought it wasn’t)
Kobeissi Letter reports via Kalshi betting that there is now a 77% chance of at least one Magnificent 7 company buying Bitcoin in 2025.
China's markets face potential volatility in 2025 due to trade tensions and domestic economic challenges.
U.S. tech stocks have driven a 24% rise in the S&P 500, led by gains from Nvidia and Tesla.
Australia's stock market dropped $42 billion, driven by banking sector losses and concerns over U.S. interest rate policies.
The London Stock Exchange is experiencing record company departures as firms move to U.S. markets for better valuations.
A U.S. government shutdown was averted, but the Dow still closed lower despite the news.
Honda and Nissan are exploring a merger, signaling potential shifts in the automotive industry.
Eli Lilly's stock rose following approval of a new sleep apnea treatment, showcasing investor focus on healthcare advancements.
This cooling off of crypto and bitcoin isn’t all that surprising considering how aggressively we pumped into December. Expect more of this and maybe even an extended lull into January.
Once people are through the holidays and companies are back into the full swing of things you can expect activity to pick back up. It’s a great time to look for alt coins and meme coins that are showing good relative strength across the board.
I am buying more $GIGA, $ZYN, $PEPE, $ETH, and APU right now. Solana meme coins will come back but it may take some time. We are talking about those constantly in the discord.
Biggest Movers (24h):
Top Gainers:
Strips Finance (STRP): +244.9%
Shoggoth (SHOGGOTH): +77.8%
Top Losers:
Core (CORE): -9.5%
Maker (MKR): -8.7%
Major Cryptos:
Bitcoin (BTC): $92,844 (-2.1%)
Ethereum (ETH): $3,357 (+3.2%)
BNB (BNB): $685 (+6.5%)
XRP (XRP): $2.20 (+0.5%)
Solana (SOL): $188 (+5.9%)
Chainlink (LINK): $23.44 (+8.5%)
LINK looking solid which is always nice to see.
Right now crypto is a game of attrition.
Who will spazz out and paper hand over the holidays and who will sit on their hands and wait for the inevitable retest of the highs in 2025?
One of my predictions for 2025 is we see a MAJOR company besides Microstrategy buy Bitcoin sparking a Bitcoin arms race in the corporate world.
If you are looking for opportunity and have some time to read over the holidays I would urge you to check out the themes of AI in crypto, RWA, an oracles.
Geopolitics
As we approach the holiday season Germany is still reeling from the terror attack in a market last week. Biden seems hell bent on leveraging his last days in office to seal off a terrible four years.
President Biden has officially abandoned mass student debt forgiveness plans he set out to finalize in his administration
President Biden also commuted the sentences of 37 of 40 men on federal death row Monday
Across the world, new developments are unfolding, many in response to the incoming Trump Administration and policies/initiatives he says he will undergo once in office.
U.S. Foreign Policy Moves:
Greenland Interest Renewed: Trump has once again expressed interest in purchasing Greenland, highlighting its strategic value, though Greenland’s leadership has firmly stated it is not for sale (lmao).
Panama Canal Comments: Trump suggested the U.S. should regain control over the Panama Canal, raising concerns about its current management. Panama quickly dismissed the idea, emphasizing its sovereignty. Panamanian leaders panicked in response on social media.
Canada-U.S. Trade Tensions:
Tariff Threats: Trump’s proposal to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian goods has been criticized by Canadian officials as harmful to both economies, particularly industries like auto manufacturing that rely on cross-border supply chains.
Mexico-U.S. Relations:
Border and Trade Issues: Mexico’s president raised concerns about Trump’s threats of tariffs tied to immigration and drug trafficking. He emphasized the need for dialogue and cooperation rather than unilateral action. Trump has floated the concept of a “soft invasion” of Mexico which would some say would entail efforts to dismantle leadership and narco state networks. Some think this might involve US special forces
Middle East Developments:
Syria's Uncertain Future: With the sudden fall of Assad’s regime, countries like Russia and Turkey are maneuvering to secure their influence in Syria, adding to regional uncertainty.
European Defense Considerations:
Norway’s Security Strategy: In light of Trump’s re-election and potential NATO shifts, Norway is reviewing its defense policies, considering stronger ties with the EU and boosting military spending.
Global Economic Outlook:
Inflation and Spending Trends: Anticipated economic reports will provide insight into consumer resilience and inflation in the coming month or so, influencing markets as the holiday season progresses into the new year.
CIA documents are claiming life did exist on Mars and it was a population of 'very large people' who had built pyramids, Daily Mail and other outlets reported today. Psy op?
These developments reflect the shifting landscape of international relations, trade, and security, with far-reaching implications for global stability and economic growth in 2025 (something I will cover in our upcoming 2025 Preview post).
The absurd crime in big cities continued this week.
A woman was tragically killed on December 22, 2024, after being set on fire while seated inside a stationary subway train in Brooklyn, New York. The attack occurred on an F train at the Coney Island-Stillwell Avenue station. The suspect ignited the woman's clothing, which quickly became engulfed in flames. Officers patrolling the station noticed smoke coming from the train and discovered the woman, but despite their efforts to extinguish the fire, she was pronounced dead at the scene.
The suspect was apprehended nearby after being recognized by students from surveillance images. A lighter was found in his possession at the time of his arrest. Authorities are still in the process of confirming the identities of both the victim and the suspect as investigations continue. The man has now been confirmed to be an illegal alien from Guatemala that has re-entered the country again after he was already deported. Illegal immigration under the Biden regime is the gift that keeps on giving.
I’m not going to post the video as it’s pretty unsettling. Rumors are emerging that the victim’s name is Amelia Carter, a 29 year old young women (Authorities said Sunday that investigators may have to rely on her teeth to identify the woman). Gut wrenching shit if this is her — not that it would make it any less tragic if it was a homeless person or vagrant, but a young women who simply fell asleep?
Demons walk among us man — unforgivable shit.
And nobody did anything to help her — NYPD stood there clueless as to what to do. People fucking filmed it.
Remember what I said to the gross desensitization of Americans to violence and gore? The dystopian apathy that seems so rampant?
This incident adds to a recent wave of violent events in New York City's transit system, prompting heightened security efforts, including the deployment of additional personnel and expanded surveillance across subway cars. Zerohedge has also noted an increased presence of National Guard troops with rifles.
Big cities aren’t safe anymore no matter what the far left media shills or oblivious normies tell you.
This is third world wanton violence from people who do not share our values or cultural norms. The consequences will continue until people are willing to nut up and do what needs to be done. The rapes, murders, child trafficking, and gangs isn’t enough yet to get people pissed off.
Fucking disgusting man.
As of today, Luigi Mangione, the killer of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson, has pleaded not guilty to 11 state charges, including first-degree murder and terrorism, in connection with the shooting death of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. Mangione appeared in court in Manhattan, where his defense attorney raised concerns about the impact of media coverage on his right to a fair trial. He also faces federal charges that could lead to the death penalty.
His next court appearance is scheduled for February 21, 2025.
That’s all I I have for you guys today — hopefully your almost off for the week.
Lastly — I revamped and re-launched the Arbitrage Andy website where you can find all of our relevant links, affiliate deals, and new merch. We have some top sellers already on there like the Mogadishu Yacht Club T Shirt (below).
I have taken the time to source better products despite the higher cost and plan on scaling this aggressively in 2025 with new offerings.
You can cop this shirt and others HERE.
Check it out as I will be adding and launching some high end products on there next year as well as free resources on everything from breaking into Wall Street, to crypto, to top influencers and free resources online for following financial markets and geopolitics.
Have a great holiday and Merry Christmas — I will see you guys towards end of the week or first thing Monday for the 2025 Preview Post.
Andy
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$zyn to a tin!
Merry Christmas Dbl A