Fears About Recession are Growing
382: Are the bears in control?
Morning guys.
Big week coming up, recession fears are growing and traders, investors, and figureheads are getting louder about their take on what happens next. I wanted to get a quick Monday preview/post out to cover what we will be watching this week as well as some of the key economic reports dropping that will influence short term market direction.
We will of course do another follow up on Thursday to touch on the intra week developments.
At the time of me finishing this up (10am ET) US indices are down and select tech stocks are falling alongside crypto.
Tomorrow morning around 9am ET I am dropping a new comprehensive guide for paid subs titled “How to Make Your First Million Dollars”. We’re going to be covering how to make a million dollars (or more specifically how to achieve your first $1M in net worth).
The Post is Outlined as Follows:
The general mindset required to get to $1M
The roles and jobs that help build the base for starting this journey
The side hustles and businesses that accelerate and speed up this goal
The market and investment decisions that can rapidly cut down how long this takes and get you to subsequent millions
I think this post is timely especially because markets are presenting us with the opportunity to buy risk assets on the cheap, which makes up a major pillar of the journey to $1M — we will talk about my approach to scaling in tomorrow, but remember, for those who are younger depending on what happens in the coming months, you might have an excellent opportunity to take advantage of.
There will be some valuable takeaways from my own journey that should be applicable to people of all ages striving for this benchmark.
I will walk through strategies step by step that have helped accelerate this process for me and others I know. No fluff, just shit that works and has worked.
Let’s start with the top headlines and themes for this week.
Markets & Crypto
U.S. stocks opened sharply lower on Monday as concerns over economic uncertainty grew following comments from President Donald Trump, who described the economy as being in “a period of transition” and did not rule out the possibility of a recession.
When asked about the likelihood of a recession this year, Trump avoided making a direct prediction but acknowledged that significant economic changes were underway.
At the market open, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 411 points, or about 0.96%. The S&P 500 declined 1.3%, while the Nasdaq slid almost 2%.
Investor sentiment has been shaken this month by uncertainty surrounding shifting trade policies and tariffs, with the S&P 500 falling 3.1% last week—its worst weekly performance since September.
One things for sure folks are getting more outspoken about where they think we are headed — Jeffrey Solomon, CEO of TD Cowen, warned recently that an escalating trade war could push the economy into recession in the latter half of the year, emphasizing concerns over global trade tensions. Ed Yardeni, President of Yardeni Research, who was previously bullish on markets, is now cautioning about the potential for a bear market and even a rare flash crash due to ongoing tariff disputes.
The two obvious factors dragging us down include:
Trade and Economic Concerns: Comments from President Trump recently have added to market volatility, as he acknowledged the economy was in a "period of transition" and did not rule out the possibility of a recession this year
Weak Economic Indicators: Recent job data has further fueled concerns about slowing economic growth and the possibility of stagflation setting in
On top of that we have the following headlines from the last few days:
Japan’s 40-Year Bond Yield has risen to the highest level in history
US Treasury Secretary Bessent said recently: There's going to be a de-tox period for the economy (Unusual Whales)
US gold imports hit a record amount of $30.4 billion in January marking a second consecutive month of steep increases according to ZeroHedge. This is double the amount seen during the 2020 Covid pandemic (Kobeissi Letter)
Stock indexes in Europe and Asia have also fallen, with declines in banking and technology sectors contributing to dumps
JPMorgan economists now see a 40% chance of recession this year (Bloomberg)
Tesla TSLA 0.00%↑
NVIDIA NVDA 0.00%↑
Novo Nordisk NVO 0.00%↑
Palantir Technologies PLTR 0.00%↑ ( I am buying)
This week, several key Federal Reserve events and reports are scheduled to drop:
Today: The Survey of Consumer Expectations will be released, providing insights into how households anticipate inflation, job prospects, and income changes.
Tuesday, March 11, 2025: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) will offer data on job vacancies, hires, and separations, shedding light on labor market conditions.
Wednesday, March 12, 2025: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report drops, a critical measure of inflation that tracks changes in the cost of goods and services.
Thursday, March 13, 2025: The Producer Price Index (PPI) will provide insights into wholesale inflation trends, indicating price trends before they end up reaching consumers.
Friday, March 14, 2025: The Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will gauge consumer confidence, reflecting public perceptions of economic conditions and future expectations in 2025
These reports will end up playing a significant role in short term shaping market sentiment and influencing monetary policy discussions we might see from Jerome and the Fed in the next few weeks and months.
Crypto
Crypto markets have unfortunately continued there chop and decline as investors globally dial back the risk and liquidity becomes a concern. Bitcoin is hovering around the $79,000 to $80,000 mark, Ethereum is just over $2,000, and most alts are doing some heavy bleeding.
The White House Crypto Summit ended up just being a Trump glaze fest without any major market moving drops or announcements (though it’s still wild a crypto centered meeting is happening in the first place).
Core institutional news in crypto remains bullish, adoption is growing, but crypto as a risk on asset is not immune to the broader woes we are seeing play out across most sectors and markets. Later this week we will cover a few different scenarios as far as how to approach worst case outcomes.
Thailand's SEC officially approved Tether's $USDT as a compliant cryptocurrency (WatcherGuru)
Trump-backed World Liberty Financial’s portfolio is down over $110 million from it’s investments in 9 cryptocurrencies worth roughly $336 million, per data from @arkham — Ethereum represents about 65% of the total loss so far (Cointelegraph). Did the Trump associates want or plan to end up holding a fat bag of Ethereum into perpetuity? We will find out in the coming months.
MicroStrategy, now operating under the name Strategy, has invested over $21 billion in Bitcoin since November. The value of its holdings has declined to around $18 billion, leading the company to seek additional funding under less favorable terms
At this point crypto kings need to lock in and weather the storm in the short to medium term. This isn’t fun of course, but it’s part of the game. I’ve been adding some Ethereum and Bitcoin but I will need to see some sort of local bottom form before I add to anymore alts. The Ethereum Alt rally will eventually come in my opinion, but you don’t need to be early and catch a falling knife. Sub $2,000 Ethereum will in retrospect be laughable.
The good news is institutional news is still mega bullish, it’s kind of comedic that we get a pro crypto administration who announces a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve and pledges not to dump government holdings but people are acting like it’s all over.
The sun will shine again but it’s going to require a shift in macro sentiment and more clarity on the Fed’s next course of action with inflation remaining elevated. It will be interesting to see how the Fed reacts to market conditions particularly because Trump seems committed to letting some air out of the market (he doesn’t seem particularly bothered by what is happening).
My gut thoughts here?
Survive.
Get through Q1/Q2 and barring a larger meltdown we should see better days in the latter half of 2025 once the mania and tariff chaos has died down a bit.
Easier said then done but you have to embrace the chop. I will be touching on some of the lessons I have learned through downturns over the years in tomorrow’s post.
Geopolitical & Global News Updates
A short list of major news stories from around the world. We will cover the week’s developments in more detail Thursday.
Russian forces have launched numerous attacks across Ukraine this week, causing widespread destruction, according to President Zelenskyy.
X is suffering from outages nationwide this morning
Harvard has announced it is enacting a hiring freeze of all faculty and staff
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reaffirmed the EU’s alliance with the U.S. but stressed the need for Europe to strengthen its own defense capabilities.
Germany has announced plans for a €500 billion infrastructure fund and potential military spending reforms to enhance its defense posture and continue supporting Ukraine on the heels of the Zelensky Trump Vance meeting
Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing’s CK Hutchison has sold its ports business, including assets along the Panama Canal, to a U.S. consortium, reflecting growing pressure from China-U.S. tensions on Hong Kong’s business environment.
Sydney-based defense tech firm DroneShield is ramping up production and prioritizing domestic manufacturing to boost Australia’s sovereign defense capabilities amid rising global conflicts and Chinese activity in the Pacific
Cooperation within the Arctic Council has weakened due to geopolitical tensions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, particularly during Russia’s tenure as chair, disrupting joint efforts on select Arctic issues.
Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney said recently "My government will keep our tariffs on until the Americans show us respect” (Unusual Whales)
Let me know in the comments what you guys think is happening next — I shared the classic Wall Street market cycle chart on Instagram and the responses have been all over the place — some think we are at anxiety, some think we are at the denial stage, and some even think we are in the bear trap.
I will see you guys tomorrow morning. Tomorrow’s post will be an excellent morale boost for those of you who are feeling discouraged by recent market action.
Talk soon.
Andy
Gemini Crypto - Get Free Bitcoin
Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before investing and ensure you have a good understanding of your personal risk tolerance.