Europe Preparing for War

354: Russian Nuclear Doctrine, Bitcoin $94K

Hope everyone is having a good week. I sat down with Bowtied Ranger a former Army special forces veteran and investment banker turned political commentator and land investor in Montana on Risk On this week. You can listen with the link above.

While crypto has been keeping me busy there is quite a bit happening across the US and the world to touch on today. The conflict in Ukraine looks to be set to escalate as the Ukrainians use US made missiles to strike deeper inside Russia. The Kremlin has responded by adjusting aspects of their nuclear doctrine and strategy — which is always something you love to see.

Financial markets continue to chug higher — with crypto dominating most mind share due to it’s insane gains and Bitcoin’s resilience as it continues to hit all time highs.

Before we get into it today — let’s start with the biggest L of the week. Jaguar decided to go ultra woke/DEI on a “rebrand” of sorts and it was a PR disaster. They got absolutely annihilated in the comments section on X. Might be the weirdest video I have ever seen lmao.

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Financial Markets & Crypto

In the past 24 hours, financial markets have shown notable activity:

Equity Markets:
U.S. stocks experienced mixed movements, with the S&P 500 seeing modest gains, while the Nasdaq rose significantly, driven by strong performances in tech. The Dow Jones, however, saw a slight decline. Corporate insider activity has also been high, with several executives selling shares amid recent market strength. Markets seem rattled by the recent developments in Ukraine and Russia.

Cryptocurrency Markets:
Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high, briefly surpassing $94,000 before stabilizing. The global cryptocurrency market capitalization has reached a record level, driven by increasing optimism around regulatory changes and market momentum.

via the Kobeissi Letter

These shifts reflect heightened investor activity influenced by recent political developments and changing market dynamics.

• Target TGT 0.00%↑ plummets about 20% following a bad earnings report

• NVIDIA NVDA 0.00%↑ is expected to report earnings on today after market close

• Bitcoin has hit a new all-time high of $94,000 at roughly 8:20am ET

• 39% of Bhutan’s GDP is in Bitcoin, totaling around $1.14 billion (WatcherGuru)

• President-elect Donald Trump has nominated pro-Bitcoin prospect Howard Lutnick for Secretary of Commerce (WatcherGuru)

• Phantom Wallet has flipped Google Chrome for utilities app rankings on the app store

• Ford is set to cut 4,000 jobs in Europe, citing problematic shift to electric vehicles as well as economic headwinds as key issues facing the company (MacroEdge)

• The Reserve Bank of Australia warned of increasing risks to financial systems due to geopolitical tensions, climate change, and the impact of social media

• The US Department of Education forecasts that by 2027, 70% of jobs will require schooling or training beyond high school (Unusual Whales)

• Microstrategy MSTR 0.00%↑ is continuing it’s insane rip higher

• Blackstone has agreed to buy sandwich chain Jersey Mike’s Subs in a deal that a source said values the company at around $8 billion, including debt (Retuers)

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Crypto markets have been surging due to positive sentiment surrounding the Trump administration and as Bitcoin climbs to it’s recent all time high just under $94,000 USD. Pretty wild. Rumor has it Trump will be seeking to replace SEC chair Gary Gooner Gensler with pro-crypto advocate Teresa Goody Guillen beginning next year.

This would be huge for the industry and only adds to the bullish news updates coming from the Trump administration this week including Trump meeting with ADA (Cardano’s) Charles Hoskinson and Coinbase’s Brian Armstrong.

I don’t want to harp on crypto too much today as I have beaten it with a hammer over the last seven days — that being said……. you’re out of your gourd if you have zero exposure to it. You are behind the ball.

For the two guides I put out over the last week you can find them below. The first covers basics and my thoughts on this cycle in crypto (our most subscribed to post in months). The second is a primer if you wish to dabble with meme coin trading. In that one I walk through how to do it, what wallet to use, step by step etc. There’s plenty of crypto materials in the Arb Letter archive but these two will get you up to speed the fastest.

Arbitrage Andy November 2024 Crypto Guide

Trading & Printing With Meme Coins

Don’t wait to learn and get set up. While we may see a correction soon (which is what anyone sidelined or under-allocated should be hoping for) this shit is going ridiculously higher in 2025 barring nuclear war.

Right now the most obvious play i see is going to be in select alt coins and mainly Ethereum which is getting shit talked by every major market influencer and participant for it’s lagging performance.

At the moment there are two scenarios I see as likely in the crypto market, and take these with a grain of salt a.) because these aren’t complicated and b.) I could of course be wrong.

1. We sell off soon with Bitcoin returning to $85,000 or so, most meme coins and alts will dump. Alts might recover well if Bitcoin pops after this dump. NVDA 0.00%↑ might be the sign that risk off has come for a short while

2. We go even higher — Bitcoin dominance persists and we push up to 103,000 or so before that correction comes. Higher for longer makes sense to me as it’s obvious the majority of people do not own enough or any Bitcoin. They are either too busy messing with memes or they have just missed the boat. You can tell by the lack of euphoria on Twitter about $94,000 Bitcoin that many missed the boat

So good news is if you are sidelined you might get a chance to get involved soon when we see a correction.

I am a buyer of Bitcoin in the low 80’s and I am currently adding ETH.

2025 is set to be an insane year for crypto, the institutional updates and demand are evidently pointing towards much higher in the near future. Betting markets have the odds that Bitcoin hits $100,000 by end of year at about 60%.

Meme coins I remain bullish on include:

• $SHAMU

• $CONOR

• $Costcoguys

• APU

• ZYN

• PEPE

• GIGA

• CHILLPNUT

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. Check out the meme coin paid post for more details on meme coins and consider joining the live chat where we are talking about meme coins, crypto, and more all day.

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Geopolitical News

You’ll remember months ago one of the larger geopolitical risks I warned about ahead of the election was the capacity for escalation in Europe.

Funnily enough, I was at a work event a month ago and an executive from a major European country brought up a question amongst peers about the risk of errant strikes by Russia inside neighboring European countries and what the likelihood of that might be. Turns out these fears are merited and the situation is becoming more concerning.

Ukraine's military utilized U.S.-supplied ballistic missiles to carry out strikes inside Russia for the first time on Tuesday. This marked a significant policy shift, reportedly following recent approval from President Biden. We are also getting reports early today they have also begun using British missiles as well.

This is undoubtedly perceived as an escalation in the conflict by Russian leadership.

Russia's Defense Ministry announced through state media on Tuesday that its military intercepted five ATACMS missiles launched by Ukraine and partially damaged another. According to the statement, fragments landed near a military facility, causing a fire but resulting in no damage or casualties.

Missile strikes inside Russia with US arms raise the risk of a sizeable response from Russia

In response to growing security concerns, including Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Sweden has begun distributing an updated version of its preparedness guide, "In Case of Crisis or War," to millions of households.

“The Ukrainian army is unable to strike with modern, high-precision weapons systems of long-range Western production. It cannot do this. This is only possible with the use of satellite intelligence data, which Ukraine does not have. Only NATO servicemen can carry that out.”

— Vladimir Putin (posted by BowtiedIguana on X)

This is a revised edition, which is double the size of the previous one issued six years ago according to various outlets and it provides detailed guidance on handling potential crises, including conflict scenarios. Similarly, Finland has released new online resources titled "Preparing for Incidents and Crises" to strengthen public readiness for unexpected events with recommendations to stockpile food and have iodine tablets on hand (which helps with radiation sickness).

Biden has also signed off on the use of anti personnel mines in Ukraine as well. According to the NY Post and other outlets, Russia has begun mass-producing mobile bomb shelters capable of withstanding nuclear blasts, while issuing warnings that President Biden’s actions could escalate tensions toward a potential World War III.

These shelters, known as "KUB-M," are designed to shield occupants from radiation for up to 48 hours following a nuclear detonation or natural disaster. With capacity for up to 54 people, they also provide protection against explosions, shrapnel from conventional weapons, falling debris, hazardous chemicals, and fires, according to the country’s emergency ministry research institute.

Europe is clearly preparing for war. It begs the question — as we approach a transition of power in January to the Trump administration, why is the West continuing to do everything it can to provoke mother Russia? Do they want a global conflict? Not sure what the point of it really is.

It will not end well and Ukraine isn’t going to “win” this war.

One can only surmise this is n effort by the globalists to provoke a war with Russia (and Iran) to complicate Trump’s upcoming term. There’s really no other explanation for continuously provoking a nuclear superpower with these brazen escalations.

People don’t understand what they’re potentially supporting here.

Other global news updates:

• Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham has reportedly offered President-elect Trump over 1,400 acres of land near the southern border for facilitating his mass deportation operation (LeadingReport)

• The US has vetoed Gaza ceasefire call at UN (Insiderpaper)

• Despite geopolitical tensions, major Western consulting firms continue operations in China by structuring their Chinese divisions independently

• The European Union is considering a "war economy" model to strengthen defense production and infrastructure in response to ongoing threats from Russia

• Chinese President Xi Jinping encouraged a stronger relationship with Australia as U.S.-China trade tensions escalate, particularly with proposed higher tariffs under new U.S. leadership.

• Japan will station 600 troops in Australia’s Northern Territory for regular rotations, starting with a joint exercise in 2025, to strengthen trilateral defense ties with Australia and the United States

• Germany has outlined a detailed 1,000-page plan, dubbed "Operation Deutschland," to mobilize 800,000 NATO troops and 200,000 vehicles in response to potential large-scale conflicts, reflecting Europe’s growing security concerns

• The United States and the Philippines have formalized an agreement to securely share classified intelligence and advanced military technology, strengthening the Philippines' defense capabilities amid regional tensions

• Trump has nominated former acting AG Matt Whitaker as the ambassador to NATO

We should stay frosty ahead of inauguration in January as there is potential for some big surprises.

That’s all I have for today — check out the crypto guides if you are interested in getting involved and make sure to follow on X and Substack chat for live updates through the end of the week.

Hope everyone is doing well.

Andy

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Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before investing and ensure you have a good understanding of your personal risk tolerance.