End Game Begins
187: Friday Market & Global Intelligence Summary
Well folks, the title of todays post just about sums up where we are at perfectly - the beginning of the short term end to many of the economic and geopolitical themes we’ve seen developing over the last several months and years. “Conspiracy theorist” critics are in disbelief and shock and suddenly the guy that’s been schizo posting about how a nuclear war is going to kick off soon doesn’t look so crazy at this point.
Make no mistake, shit is getting super real on all fronts.
Regional banks in the US are continuing to blow up and become insolvent despite the U.S. Federal Reserves assurances that the banking system is “safe and resilient”. The Kremlin, deep inside Russia, was hit by small drone strikes yesterday in an act you can guarantee the Russians consider a dire escalation of the War in Ukraine.
And in New York City it looks like we might just have our next Summer of Riots 2.0 after a U.S. marine choked out and killed an aggressive vagrant with 44 prior arrests that activist groups are now taking to the streets in protest for — defending his behavior and insisting he should only be remembered for his Michael Jackson
All of this transpiring as all signs point to a real recession beginning in the US with economic conditions worsening, the Biden administration coming under more and more pressure from the public, and sinister schemes clearly having groundwork implemented for more power and control to be obtained by the elite and ruling class.
Some regional banks and tech stocks have rebounded to start the day but are still a ways down from where they began the week. For investors the biggest piece of news to come out besides the 25bps rate hike from the Fed is the optimistic jobs report that suggests the Fed will likely not ease it’s hiking schedule in the near future. If they ease up soon it will be surprising.
This likely means more bloodshed for banks and those exposed to loans they cannot continue to service.
General World Updates
Covid-19 is no longer a global health emergency says the WHO
George Soros and Fortress will acquire Vice Media out of bankruptcy
The government's overspending will bankrupt future generations, Stanley Druckenmiller has said (Unusual Whales)
Carvana stock mooned over 40% this week after the company said it will achieve adjusted profit sooner than expected - the stock was down almost 99% last year (CNBC)
Coinbase rallied in after-hours trading Thursday after the crypto-trading platform reported first-quarter financial results that far surpassed analyst expectations
Americans haven't been this worried about their bank deposits since the 2008 financial crisis according to CNBC
$PEPE hits new all time high at $0.00000314 with market cap rank 43 after Binance listing announcement
Today the SEC announced the largest-ever award, nearly $279 million to a whistleblower whose information and assistance led to the successful enforcement of SEC and related actions
Following several mass shootings, Serbia's president has vowed to 'disarm' the country
The global rice shortage currently plaguing the world is set to be the worst in over 20 years
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPM will take his first trip to China in a long time in the coming months
Banking Crisis Continues
For months now the US financial system has been going through tumultuous developments as people lose faith in banks, institutions, and exchanges.
Fed policy widely considered to be a disastrous mismanagement of decisions and power, has led us down a road where inflation is still high and rate hikes are triggering more and more banks to go belly up.
We’ve talked previously about the idea that there may be a strong effort to consolidate and nationalize the banking system as that would make it easier to eventually implement a CBDC in the US.
Jordan Schachtel writes in his popular Substack The Dossier about the implications of the implementation of an eventual CBDC:
A CBDC system will grant enormous additional power to the government and their oligarch partners. It allows for this ruling class to assert easier control over the population’s spending, saving, investing, and borrowing power. The far-left Keynesian economists and monetary theorists who populate America’s “elite” institutions believe these tyrannical and restrictive policies will help bring about economic utopia. However, reality tells us that implementation of this CBDC project will not only amount to a semi-permanent financial hellscape, but will also be disastrous for prosperity in America.
But before we see this move to implement an all powerful digital government currency things will likely continue to get worse and more banks are going t fail or be shamelessly bailed out.
Just this week we’ve seen the following developments:
On Monday, JPMorgan acquired First Republic Bank as part of a government-led deal, making it the fourth US lender to fail this year after Silvergate Capital Corp., Silicon Valley Bank of SVB Financial Group, and Signature Bank in March.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve again raised rates by 25 basis points
In a statement issued on Wednesday evening, the Western Alliance announced that it had not encountered any abnormal deposit activity subsequent to the transaction involving First Republic.
PacWest sank 50.6% was halted for volatility multiple times
French bank BNP Paribas (BNP) is promoting the use of China's digital yuan by linking wallets to bank accounts, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on Friday (Coindesk)
India and Russia have suspended negotiations to settle trade in rupees, according to Reuters.
Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the banking system is sound and resilient. After hours we watched the regional bank crisis extend and stocks crater. This is yet another example of mismanaged expectations by the Federal Reserve and alludes to a potentially dire crisis brewing under the surface that most Americans are completely unaware of.
On the bright side the US labor market, despite aggressive layoffs in tech and finance, seems to be very resilient. The US economy added 235K jobs in April which was well above expectations of 180,000. The unemployment rate fell from 3.5% to 3.4% which is now a 50 year low.
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Kremlin Struck with Drones
According to a statement released by the Kremlin and recent video footage, two drones were intercepted by Russian air defenses early on Wednesday morning at President Vladimir Putin's residence in the Kremlin.
The Russian government is claiming that the United States orchestrated this alleged assassination attempt along with Ukraine on Putin. It should be noted that Putin was not present at the residence during the supposed attack.
The attack marks one of the first deep detonations within Russia though the impact of the attack seemed to be mostly psychological with little damage done and no casualties.
It is still unclear if this was a false flag attempt by Russia to give them an excuse to escalate or if it was in fact a viable attempt by Western or Ukrainian forces. Regardless, it will surely play a large role in how the Russians react next.
The War in Ukraine is taking an interesting turn at the moment with Wagner Troops essentially going on strike in the Bakhmut. Their commander claimed in a video that churned up this week that they are critically low on ammunition, showing video of fresh corpses and casualties. Wagner Chief Prigozhin said the following: " I will hold defence minister Shoigu and general staff chief Gerasimov to account for the “tens of thousands of Wagner casualties we have suffered” (Reuters).
While the Russians next move is unclear we can likely rest assured that the response will be seismic and calculated. As I type this there are breaking reports of an unidentified drone tried to attack an Aeroflot Airbus A320 during landing at Sheremetyevo airport in Moscow (Mash)
Zerohedge has reported that Former CIA intelligence officer Larry Johnson says the decision to launch a drone attack on the Kremlin was indeed made by the United States. If this is true it brings this conflict to a serious crossroads and risks escalating to the point of no return.
Many people are not aware of close we actually are to a nuclear conflict or all out World War if Russia thinks they are being threatened credibly by the United States within their own borders.
Incident in NYC Subway
Police stated that Neely and a 24-year-old former Marine engaged in an argument which later turned into a physical altercation, as reported by witnesses and authorities.
The man allegedly put Neely in a chokehold, causing him to lose consciousness and subsequently pass away. Although investigators questioned the former Marine after Neely's demise, they did not take him into custody.
The NYPD had previously arrested Neely 42 times across the last decade, and he had a documented mental health history with police, with his most recent arrest in November 2021 for slugging a 67-year-old female stranger in the face. A warrant for his arrest on felony assault charges was issued on Feb. 23.
It’s a growing trend in the US that we’ve spoken to before that we are now siding with lifelong criminals over everyday citizens. Personally, I can’t tell you how many times I have run into violent or aggressive people on the Subway, in Manhattan, or even in nicer parts of the city like the Upper East Side.
It’s a massive issue that proponents on the progressive left loves to simply ignore and excuse. This event comes only months after several women in the city were pushed in front of trains and after a man violently accosted a family sitting on the Subway minding their own business. Now does this mean the Neely deserved to die?
No — but if he was acting aggressively and threatening passengers as he had done many times before than we shouldn’t be demonizing the person who had the balls to stand up to this bullshit. It’s simply unacceptable and I am not sure why society has drifted so far from our condemnation of this type of behavior in a functioning society.
This attitude of permitting psychotic and repeat criminals to simply prey on defenseless populations is soviet in nature and morally wrong. No amount of social justice excuses or gaslighting can change that fact. NYC corrupt DA Alvin Bragg is likely to try and charge this Marine with homicide so we will continue to cover the case as it develops.
We were a bit slammed on the personal side this week so we will double up on paid deep dives next week with the following schedule for posts:
Tuesday - Overview of the biggest mistakes we think most people will make in this economic and geopolitical environment (financially, mentally, physically)
Thursday - A deep dive on the growing trend of crime in the US and why nobody is being held accountable
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See you guys next week.
*Disclaimer — I am a former commodities trader and current enterprise salesman with a monkey brain — this is not formal investment advice. Please research all of your investments before throwing money at them and ensure you are not investing irresponsibly
Capital controls and financial repression coming right up.