Good afternoon.
As predicted, we have seen a slight pullback in markets on the heels of a rather impressive pump from risk assets the past 4 days or so (though it appears it will be short-lived).
It seems within the euphoria in certain pockets of the market, investors and institutions are now looking hard at the whole picture in the US and around the world. It is becoming harder and harder to simply write off or ignore the fact that growth may be slowing and the big question in the US, is if the Federal Reserve can get any sort of handle on the bond market.
Crypto was a major highlight for readers this month as many of our picks skyrocketed. Zcash has had a godly run, NEAR is dominating AI/crypto circles, and some old alts from bear markets in the past have showed impressive strength.
If you missed the crypto post from Tuesday, I will say it again:
Read it now. Not when Bitcoin goes back over $100,000.
Today we want to try and get a handle on the huge amount of major headlines that have dropped this week across the globe and across asset classes.
We will keep it relatively short given there will likely be a third post this week.
Finance & Markets
Some of the bullish momentum equities were enjoying alongside crypto is cooking off now.
There have been some insane outliers like META 0.00%↑ who is dropping new products left and right, and AMD 0.00%↑ up 35% on the month and flying past the $1 Trillion market cap handle.
Japan’s 10 year government bond yield surged to its highest level in 30 years (Polymarket)
Meta shares continue to surge after the Muse drop putting the stock on pace for its best month in years
Over 700,000 U.S. tech jobs were cut and 670,000 H-1B visas were issued to Indians since 2022 (InsiderWire)
Oracle dropped more than 5% after reportedly declaring force majeure at a New Mexico data center
Royal Caribbean agreed to acquire a 50% stake in Sandals Resorts
Stitch Fix plunged roughly 22% despite beating quarterly expectations after warning that a weakening consumer could pressure revenue growth
I am sitting on my hands in equities at the moment.
Next week we will look at a few options plays for the Fall.
One major theme worth paying attention to has been the fact that US 10 Year bond yields are now going vertical (highest since 2007). This is likely the reason for risk assets dumping the last 36 hours or so…..
This tells us a few things.
The bond market is not convinced inflation is dead obviously (and it is not).
Oil remains a problem with this endless fuckery in the Middle East, Warsh’s Fed is back to raising rates, and investors (many of them boomers) now want to be paid more to lock up their money for a decade.
Also there is a growing amount of anxiety surrounding the United States’ debt pile and the sheer amount of new government paper that needs to be absorbed. When supply explodes and buyers become less enthusiastic you see prices fall and yields rise.
Pretty simple stuff right?
You can make this stuff as complicated as you want but to me, the question is whether this move is being driven by stronger economic growth or by deteriorating confidence in inflation and government finances. The first is pretty manageable. The second is where things get darker lol.
The 10 year yield above 5% raises borrowing costs across the economy. Mortgages and auto loans and all of the corporate debt. But it’s also important to remember the market dynamic too, because it also gives investors a legitimate alternative to expensive stocks and speculative assets.
Why take enormous risk when Uncle Sam is offering you a nice sweet 5% on your money? Do I think young retail degens give a shit? No. But older folks and those with large sums of money who don’t want to take excessive risk will opt for this all day.
In other news, BlackRock dropped a new research paper this week that looked at the connection between AI, digital assets, and tokenization. The paper titled “The Machine - Native Economy” covers three major themes:
LLMs and Blockchains + tokenization
Agentic commerce and why it requires machine native payment rails
Compute emerging as a new market for digital assets
Basically it covers AI, AI agents, blockchains, tokenization, and everything that is going to give us an opportunity to get wealthy if we tune our exposure right. The world of tech, traditional markets, and crypto are beginning to smelt into one being before our eyes.
This will be the new standard of markets and commerce.
AI and blockchain-based digital assets are increasingly converging as machines take a greater role in economic activity. As AI adoption broadens and agentic systems become more capable, digital assets could become increasingly integral to AI’s economic infrastructure, expanding utility across stablecoins, tokenized RWAs, and native cryptoassets that support blockchain settlement.
— BlackRock
You can read the report in full HERE.
Crypto
Crypto showed it’s hand early to us this year and the vibes are certainly very bullish.
Just 30 minutes ago the Federal Reserve tweeted:
@federalreserve requests public comment on two proposals related to establishing a regulatory framework for Board-supervised payment stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act
I’m thinking we do another short post this weekend depending on how the week shapes up re: crypto.
My positioning has not changed since I dropped it in Tuesday’s post. Only things I have added are more PEPE, more AAVE, and more NEAR.
There’s been a super bullish dump of new headlines amid this last pump. Kind of hard to stress how bullish I am. CFTC Chair Mike Selig said on an interview Wednesday "It's go time" as the agency looks to tap its existing authority in order to expedite the roll out of crypto market structure framework.
This dump was a gift (in my opinion) for anyone sidelined despite $284M in long positions getting wiped out in the past 4 hours lol:
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed roughly $1.7 billion across two trading days
Per Chris Barrett on X - On Sept. 24, Chainlink Co-Founder Sergey Nazarov joins leaders from BlackRock, Vanguard, and Sharplink at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s Fintech Conference, moderated by the Atlantic Council’s Josh Lipsky, to discuss the future of blockchain in traditional finance
The NYSE and Blockchain.com signed an agreement to explore giving users global, 24/7 access to tokenized U.S.-listed stocks and ETFs through the NYSE’s planned digital platform
21Shares listed Europe’s first ZEC ETP on Euronext Paris and Amsterdam, helping ZEC push above $1,600
Chainlink is partnering with Infosys, whose infrastructure supports over 1.7B customer accounts worldwide, to help bring the company's banking clients onchain (CoinMarketCap)
IBM is connecting its digital asset platform to Swift’s blockchain ledger, letting banks move tokenized deposits 24/7 (CoinTelegraph)
The meme coin/pair trade slowed a bit through platforms like Stonk.xyz, though if you are bullish on some of these recovering it may be a decent time to look as attention shifts and scared traders panic sell into this weakness.
I like FeelsGood, NearKat, and Stonk right now. Uniswap is starting to look more interesting as well. Lookonchain on X reported:
After UNI dropped recently, whale 0xd42B spent 1.5M $USDC to buy 159,698 UNI at $9.39 in a single trade.
I am itching to add even more NEAR right now with the bullish developments that keep dropping. Just this week NEAR:
Ondo's tokenized stocks and ETFs went live on near.com through NEAR Intents
Bitwise NEAR Staking ETP has passed $100 million in assets under management
333,333 NEAR was distributed to holders on Near.com
NEAR Intents has processed over $2.3 billion in cumulative
$ZEC volume (MSB Intel)
The weekend will prove to be a good litmus test for this last rally so watch closely. The names and projects that took off most aggressively should be able to defend their ranges well which is a solid signal.
This morning I added some more ONDO around the time the news dropped with BlackRock for their Ondo Intelligent Portfolios.
Global News
It’s been awhile since we’ve covered any major political story, but I am sure we will have our share during midterm season. Admittedly I am growing tired of the current geopolitical hot spots in Ukraine, Iran, and the Middle East.
It’s been non stop crying wolf for almost two years now that we are inching closer and closer to World War III. The latest reports online suggest that US intelligence is now warning over potential drone strikes by Russia in Spain, France, or Italy. Seems kind of “WMDs in Iraq” to me.
We know that Russia has been probing and fucking around near Poland’s border recently and we know that the Ukrainians have really amped up strikes within Russia so I suppose anything is possible. The non stop performative US military ad campaigns, including the ones with Logan and Jake Paul at the White House make me think there is absolutely an element of conditioning the younger generation for war.
I just don’t know what full blown war looks like in 2026+. We’ve already seen the infantryman rendered almost entirely obsolete in the killing fields of Eastern Europe where drones reign king.
In any case the other thorn in oil markets and global stability is the situation in the Middle East. Right now U.S. and Iran talks appear to be going nowhere. President Trump is threatening annihilation again, Iran is promising no surrender (which markets hated), and Tehran is demanding relief from the naval blockade before it will fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
President Xi of China is visiting the US this week. Xi’s visit has been mostly pageantry and nice words so far, but that is probably the point. Trump rolled out the red carpet, bragged about their friendship, and bought likely both sides more time by extending a trade truce through January.
Doubtful that key topics like Taiwan, weapons sales, AI chips, rare earths, and China’s unwillingness to squeeze Iran come up in any serious discussions.
Qantas is set to launch the first ever direct commercial flights between Sydney & New York in 2028, spanning nearly 10,000 miles (Polymarket)
Xi Jinping announced China will send 2 giant pandas to Zoo Atlanta, calling them an “envoy of friendship” during his meeting with Trump (Polymarket)
The government of Yemen is currently seeking U.S. military support in its fight against the Houthis, a senior Yemeni official said Wednesday (NBC News)
Walkouts started at the UN Hall as Benjamin Netanyahu started his speech
Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament Ghalibaf made a post celebrating the US 10Y Note Yield rising above 5.10% (Kobeissi Letter)
The US political landscape is heating up ahead of midterms later this year with more growth of the socialist arm of the Democratic party. Nithya Raman is now leading Karen Bass in the LA Mayoral election.
A third of voters remain undecided still so this race is far from over. But an incumbent mayor trailing by 11 points tells you how much appetite there is for change (even if it is super radical).
You can check out the odds here on Polymarket (along with other big races in midterms).
Short one today gents, I will be on the Discord tonight and watching markets closely leading into the weekend. If we pump or dump hard in crypto expect a weekend post.
Godspeed to you all!
If you have some free time make sure to catch up on all the crypto guides from the last week so you don’t miss anything.
Andy