Chaos is the Opportunity Now
539: Solana Hack, Iran Escalation, Stock Picks
Good morning kings.
We are at what looks like it could be the key crossroads moment for this conflict in Iran. Things will not snap back immediately to normal, but we’re getting close to where a decision is going to have to be made by this administration.
Last night President Trump began his address by thanking US troops efforts as well as touching on the recent
He then moved into updates on Iran and Operation Epic Fury.
President Trump reaffirmed his former promise to not allow Iran to become a nuclear power. He summarized former Iranian proxy and direct attacks on US forces and allies in the region over the past several years as well as the reported 45,000 Iranians killed by their own government during anti regime protests and activity.
After recounting Iranian military capability and the effective strikes by US forces over the past weeks, President Trump said that US military objectives in Iran are “nearing completion”.
“Thanks to the progress we've made, I can say tonight that we are on-track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly. We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next two to three weeks... In the meantime, discussions are ongoing."
—President Trump
But he also said that Iran would be hit hard in the next 2-3 weeks and sent back to the stone age. Oil ripped during the speech with Larry Fink of BlackRock saying that oil at $150 would trigger a global recession. S&P 500 futures erased over $550 billion in market cap during the speech (Kobeissi Letter).
Trump added that if a deal is not reached, Iranian power plants would be targeted next.
I would call this speech soft escalation. It leaves the door open for further strikes and ground operations if necessary and was by no means a declaration of complete victory or an announcement of any meaningful peace deal being reached.
With the vibe change yesterday, I think it’s worth a closer look at some equity plays that can be taken and some names I think are approaching some valuable levels if you are oriented for the long term. We will also review the defense stack today.
This will end, but there’s going to be an insane amount of volatility to take advantage of until that point.
There’s nowhere to hide right now, so we must face the onslaught of 2026 macro.
Markets
Markets came into this week hoping for clarity or peace. What they got instead was escalation risk.
Kind of odd considering many thought Trump was set to announce some sort of deescalation.
Trump’s latest speech struck a far more aggressive tone than many expected, with a clear emphasis on strength, deterrence, and keeping all options on the table regarding Iran.
There was no real signal of de-escalation, virtually no off-ramp presented, and no attempt to cool tensions lmao. If anything, the message reinforced the idea that this situation could stretch out or intensify.
I don’t know about you but I am not buying the weapons of mass destruction 2.0 campaign. Fool me…… can’t get fooled again!
Nike NKE 0.00%↑ fell to its lowest price in more than a decade this week
Oracle laid off 20,000-30,000 employees yesterday morning with a single 6 am email (Polymarket)
US diesel futures approach all-time high level, last up 13% (MacroEdge)
Citadel's crypto exchange is said to be applying to be a national bank trust so that it can provide custody, asset management and trading services (Eric Balchunas)
The U.S. hiring pace fell to its lowest level since 2011, excluding the pandemic (CoinTelegraph)
The price of diamonds has crashed to its lowest level this century (Polymarket)
U.S. Challenger layoffs totaled 60,620 in March, up 25% from February but down 78% from a year ago. AI was the top reason for cuts at 15,341 (25% of the total) while tech has announced 52,050 layoffs so far in 2026 (Polymarket Money)
The private credit space ($3.5 trillion in assets under management (AUM) globally) is starting to show real signs of stress, something we have touched on briefly in past weeks.
Blue Owl recently capped redemptions at 5% after seeing a surge in withdrawal requests, with investor demand to exit far exceeding what the fund structure can handle.
This highlights a core issue in private credit. It obviously performs well when capital is flowing in, but liquidity can dry up quickly when sentiment shifts, forcing funds to then limit withdrawals and manage more and more pressure internally.
Stepping back, this is not just one firm now. It is an early signal that the broader private credit boom is now being tested in a higher volatility higher rate environment in which major geopolitical and macro black swans threaten to blow someone the f*ck up lol.
“Essentially every large company is overstaffed. We could debate how much but it's at least by 25% … And now they all have the silver bullet excuse — it's AI. I know this for a fact because I talk to them.”
— Marc Andreessen on AI layoffs
Equity/ETF Picks This Week
Okay let’s talk stock and ETF picks now.