Ceasefires, Cuts, and Crypto Calm
472: Friday Market News & Global Developments
Happy Friday.
First cold morning hit hard today, reminding us that Fall is fleeting and Winter is on the horizon.
Quick wrap up of the week’s most important headlines this morning. Next week we’re likely going to get into some heavy geopolitical focus pieces on China and Russia.
If you missed this week’s paid posts you can check them out below:
Fortify Yourself in 2025 - Comprehensive framework for situational awareness and other “prepping” type considerations given the political and social volatility in 2025 and around the world.
10 Stocks Trump Might Target Next - We take a look at the insane trend of the Trump Administration taking stakes in a number of companies (defense/energy/mining) and put together a short list of who might be next. These names are performing extremely well vs. the broader market.
Markets & Crypto
Markets showed signs of strain this week as investors grappled with stretched valuations, a U.S. government shutdown, and muted volume around record highs.
The S&P continued to hit new highs, but breadth looks weakened and defensive sectors outperformed. Meanwhile, tech and AI names still drove some upside, even as sentiment definitely feels a bit more cautious across the board.
All eyes now shift to the Fed’s October meeting. After the 25 bps cut in September, markets are pricing in a high probability (~90 %+) of another cut next month, though hawkish voices within the Fed are pushing for more caution given persistent inflation.
We will get into our prediction closer to decision time.
AMD 0.00%↑ - a key Arb Letter pick for months, surged this week after announcing a landmark AI infrastructure partnership with OpenAI that will see it supply up to 6 gigawatts of next-generation MI450 GPUs to power OpenAI’s expansion.
The deal also includes a warrant giving OpenAI the option to take a roughly 10% stake in AMD, underscoring how strategic the relationship could become. The announcement sent shares bloody ripping as investors rushed to price in the company’s growing relevance in the AI compute race. NVDA 0.00%↑ was up moderately this week along with SMCI 0.00%↑.
Scott Bessent says US Treasury ready to take immediate exceptional measures to ensure market stability (Unusual Whales)
The US has finalized a $20 billion currency swap agreement with Argentina (Kobeissi Letter)
Goldman Sachs has raised their December 2026 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce
Corporate earnings for Q3 are coming in mixed, with S&P 500 firms on track for roughly 8–9% year-over-year profit growth, marking a slowdown from the double-digit pace seen earlier in the year
Investors are increasingly rotating capital outside U.S. equities, with more than $175 billion flowing into ex-U.S. stock funds recently
Applied Digital APLD 0.00%↑ jumped nearly 30% after posting a strong earnings beat and announcing a new lease deal tied to AI data center capacity
Make sure to check out 10 Stocks Trump Might Target Next for insight into the stocks that the Discord is trading. UUUU 0.00%↑ UAMY 0.00%↑ and NB 0.00%↑ are all favorites playing off the trend we’ve seen of the US government announcing stakes in energy/mining/defense companies to help secure the US supply chain and secure valuable mineral capability within the US.
Currently I hold call options in NB and UUUU with expiration at the end of October and February.
This trend is dominant right now.
BBAI 0.00%↑ looking solid today as well.
Crypto
Crypto remains in a consolidation type range after a small pullback from Bitcoin’s new ATH level of $125,835. My gut tells me that these are all pre-stages to the real pump, but what do I know.
Normally we would see much bigger sell offs and capitulation if we were close to the “end” of a cycle, but this is very not much the case.
Alts pulled back a decent amount on the recent pull back, providing some solid entries for those of us who believe the best is yet to come between now and Spring of 2026.
Publicly traded Bitmine Immersion purchased another 23,822 Ethereum worth over $103 million
The SEC is streamlining its ETF approval process by adopting new listing standards, which cuts the go-live window from ~270 days to ~75 days for qualifying crypto ETFs
U.S. Bank has relaunched its bitcoin custody services for institutional investment managers, expanding its offering to include ETF assets under custody
Coinbase and Mastercard are in negotiations to acquire stablecoin startup BVNK for around $2B, with Coinbase reportedly leading, per Fortune (CoinTelegraph)
BNB Chain hits record 5 Trillion in gas usage in a single day this week. The surge reflects growing demand and efficiency across the network, helped by recent throughput upgrades and a lower standard gas price that has made transactions faster and cheaper.
This milestone coincided with BNB’s absurd rally in which the token touched a new all-time high above $1,300, up more than 120% over the past year as both speculation and genuine network adoption accelerated.
Analysts see the momentum echoing Solana’s 2023 run, where rising on-chain activity fueled ecosystem-wide growth. $2,000 long term? Probably not far fetched.
$AAVE fundamentals have never looked better, YTD revenue recently passed $100M. What’s even more impressive is that AAVE’s treasury has ballooned in parallel, and its DAO has been executing on aggressive buybacks.
The protocol is increasingly funneling harvested fees back into the system to reduce circulating supply and align alignment with governance holders. On the product side, loans and utilization across Aave’s deployment stack are rising sharply, while the roadmap toward V4 and cross-chain consolidation gives investors a durable narrative into 2026. Bullish if you ask me.
Strategy unchanged. The only thing I am actively procuring at the moment is alt coins.
Geopolitics & Global News
Global headlines this week were dominated by a rare relative moment of calm in the Middle East as Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire, *allegedly* pausing two years of brutal conflict in Gaza and opening the door for renewed international diplomacy. Video on social media showed pockets of conflict still occurring.
Beyond that, the global stage was defined by shifting economic undercurrents, from cautious central banks and softening commodity demand to renewed concerns over inflation and debt sustainability in emerging markets.
Political volatility remains elevated, with governments in Europe and Latin America grappling with protests, fiscal strain, and leadership challenges, while markets reacted to signs of slower global growth.
María Corina Machado, a Venezuelan politician and industrial engineer, has won 2025 Nobel Peace Prize
A man was beaten to death on NYC subway by David Mazzariego, who *shocker* had 33 previous arrests
A 7.4 magnitude earthquake reportedly just struck off the coast of Mindanao, Philippines
OPEC+ announced a modest increase in oil production of roughly 137,000 barrels per day, signaling caution as members balance between stabilizing prices and concerns over slowing global demand
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited India this week as part of a “Vision 2035” initiative aimed at strengthening cooperation on trade, technology, and climate policy between the two countries
New York Attorney General Letitia James was indicted yesterday, by a federal grand jury in the Eastern District of Virginia on charges of bank fraud and making false statements to a financial institution.
The case is being led by newly appointed U.S. Attorney Lindsey Halligan, who replaced a predecessor reportedly resistant to bringing charges. James has denied all wrongdoing, calling the allegations “baseless” and politically motivated.
Anti ICE Protests Continue
The Anti ICE protests and chaos this week continue across the United States.
I will say it again, it shows you just how compromised this country is when the underlying root of all of this is opposition to the LEGAL deportation of illegal migrants who broke the law.
I talk about this in this morning’s episode of Risk On. We are entering lunacy levels of logic. When you really stop to think about what is driving all of this, it really is mind blowing. Just years ago Democrats and Republicans could agree that illegal immigration was a bad thing, so what changed?
Antifa is a radical terrorist organization that explicitly calls for the overthrow of the U.S. Government, law enforcement authorities, and our system of law. Under the Trump Administration, Antifa’s days are over.
White House X Account
The violence and disruption is undeniable at this point, and despite the mainstream media’s attempts to downplay groups like Antifa, it is obvious:
a.) they are organized
b.) they are receiving funding
Portland Antifa cells even announced that they have plans to shine lasers at law enforcement helicopters this weekend, something that’s obviously illegal and has already resulted in a handful of arrests.
Democrat strongholds like Chicago, LA, and NY have all seen demonstrations against ICE and deportations. Politicians are doing their best to impede law enforcement efforts at every step of the way.
The double standard is CRAZY to me.
If right wingers assaulted federal officers, rammed a government vehicle, or (like many claim they did on January 6th) they would be swiftly shot or imprisoned. But not the left. The left gets plenty of chances, excuses, and passes made over and over again.
The media is a big reason why.
Critics of what I just said will go “YEAH BUT TRUMPS HITLER”
Which is just partisan a political cop out.
He’s not Hitler. If you break the law, you need to face consequences.
It doesn’t matter that you were let in by a previous administration, that you have kids, or that you work a job illegally.
ICE gets the benefit of the doubt right now. They are taking on a virtually impossible task to secure the country. it won’t be pretty.
It’s not supposed to be a feel good moment. It’s not going to be perfect. But it’s important. If we have no laws then we have no nation.
IF they are overstepping, then they need to be held accountable. But you have to understand the weight of the opposition they face in trying to enforce the law. They face street agitators, violent protests, and the weight of legacy media and politicians constantly trying to get them in a “gotcha” moment.
Now, all of that being said, I think a few things are worth highlighting here:
The moves from the Trump administration need to be swift and final, if they are not, all they are doing is pissing people off and creating more animosity
There is LITTLE room for missteps or overreaches of power in ICE detainments and activity. These people hate them anyway, so any moment to publicize or condemn ICE will be seized (example is the Antifa linked priest who got shot in the head with a pepper ball)
The admin should really stop telegraphing all their moves like it’s some big production or show, do what needs to be done and leave it at that. The memes, hype videos, etc. while funny, are just adding fuel to a fire that is going to be hard to put out as it is
My big thing is: the progressive left is now emotionally focusing on all of the details of the push to remove illegal migrants from the US while entirely ignoring the fact that they were let in to begin with.
This was always the issue with this from the get go. Once millions of people are let in, you’ve already lost. Removing them is automatically going to draw criticism from those with a political agenda to keep them here. Your only real solution is to comprehensively and systematically deport them. However, that’s a much bigger battle than not letting them in to begin with (and of course that was all by design).
The gates have already been breached. You have already lost. The only question is, do you have the stomach to finish what needs to be done or do you let public pressure and emotion AFTER THE FACE guide a half assed symbolic campaign to show people you are “following through”.
Binary outcome here:
You rectify the issue by doing what it takes to detain and deport law breakers
OR
You don’t and the damage is done (and grows) because you’re becoming out numbered politically and public sentiment is allowed to be manipulated
If you end up doing the latter, you better be prepared for the next administration (if it’s Democrat) to completely reverse your progress on day one.
That’s all for today — make sure you guys tune in to Episode 41 of Risk On (which will drop within the next hour) for my thoughts on the Anti ICE protests, the Trump Administration staking trend in US equities, and more.
See you next week, have a great weekend.
Andy
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Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before
I'll reluctantly be the one to ask. You mentioned alts. Have you looked into Zcash? Apologies if I missed in other posts.
Additionally, given your positions and long-term macro view on crypto generally, how impacted are you planning to be by where we are in the cycle? I'm leaning to just holding what I have and adding when it feels oversold. Crystallizing gains isn't as fun in year 10 of crypto as it once was and I can handle the movements.
My take on the Trump admins actions and telegraphing their moves. They are slowly but surely building up popular support by revealing how crazed and dangerous the left is. All of this is setting up for the potential invoking of the Insurrection Act, where the real action will take place. And when it happens, Trump can legitimately claim, don’t say we didn’t warn you.