Burry Shorts, Battlefield Shifts, and Big Tech Reloads
507: Burry’s Warning, Bitcoin’s Breakout
Afternoon lords.
We will be dropping the 2025 Holiday Gift Guide on Friday morning so make sure to subscribe to receive. Today before we all clock out for the Holiday here in the US, wanted to make sure we rounded off coverage of the week.
Some important things to keep tabs on.
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Markets & Crypto
Markets have been on a strong two-day upswing, with major indices extending their rally through this morning as investors pile back into risk assets. Tech led the surge yesterday, but today the momentum broadened out into value and cyclicals even as some AI chip names cooled off.
A run of softer economic data has strengthened expectations for a near-term rate cut, giving the market another tailwind. Overall sentiment has turned sharply more constructive as traders position for a potentially friendlier macro setup into year-end.
However there is still a “the bubble is here” camp that seems adamant downside risk is persisting as well as folks who are sounding the alarm on the jobs market.
Despite this it seems people are still willing to make big bets on a market pump. Assets under management in US leveraged ETFs hit a record $239 billion in Q3 2025. This marks the 2nd consecutive quarterly increase, totaling +$77 billion while hedge funds recorded their largest 2-day net purchase of US equities since May on November 21st and 24th (Kobeissi Letter/Bloomberg).
Campbell’s Soup CPB 0.00%↑ is going through some major drama related to a recent lawsuit brought forth by Robert Garza, who was hired by Campbell’s as a cybersecurity analyst in September 2024.
Garza alleges that Campbell’s executive VP of Technology Martin Bally, made hostile comments, disparaging remarks about Indian coworkers, and said that the brand is for poor people.
Garza recorded a lunch meeting between the two in which he thought they would be discussing his salary.
The VP is heard on the recording saying “it’s for poor people” and “it’s 3D printed chicken” lmao.
We will see if this develops into more than a PR nightmare but so far the stock has remained relatively unaffected. Can’t wait for their cricket meat line of soup in the coming years when the whole world needs to be on UBI because of AI.
The White House is saying tax refunds in 2026 are projected to be the “largest ever” (WatcherGuru)
The UK plans for extra taxes on homes valued at £2M+ to target the “ultra rich” (Polymarket)
OpenAI will need to raise at least $207 billion by 2030 so it can continue to lose money, HSBC has estimated (Unusual Whales)
S&P Global Ratings had downgraded Tether’s USDT, citing increased exposure to Bitcoin and Gold
US VP JD Vance has said “Bitcoin will become a strategically important asset for the United States”
GOOG 0.00%↑ is on a tear up 18% in the last month after Size Lord Buffett aped it.
Polymarket has live odds on where the price is heading and it looks pretty bullish as of now. A 54% chance it surpasses $335 before the end of the calendar year. And the backdrop only adds fuel to the fire. Reports that Google may be gearing up for another major AI-chip push have traders wondering if we’re on the verge of a rotation back into mega-cap tech leadership.
If that narrative picks up, it could create the kind of year-end chase that forces under-positioned funds and retail to buy strength instead regardless of where the price is. I am certainly underexposed.
Michael Burry continued on with his NVDA 0.00%↑ beef this week and lit another match under the AI trade. After loading up on massive put positions against Nvidia and other AI darlings, he published a long critique arguing that the entire boom is being held up by aggressive accounting, overbuilt data-center spending, and what he calls “Cisco-level euphoria.” He even launched a new Substack to detail his thoughts on markets priced at $349/year.
Nvidia responded by circulating a memo to analysts defending its numbers and pushing back on the comparison, which only prompted Burry to double down and accuse them of dodging the real issue: system-wide AI capex that he believes will end in writedowns.
Burry might be on to something, NVDA 0.00%↑ is now down about 17% since his short positions/sentiment went public. Might not be a bad time to scoop some if you missed the sustained ripper magoo this beast has had.
You can check out my AI stock picks from Tuesday HERE.
Institutional Crypto Updates - JPM
In a recent report J.P. Morgan said that crypto is emerging as a tradable macro asset class, while siding with our theory here that the traditional 4 year cycle is dead.
Crypto is moving away from resembling venture capital style ecosystem to a typical treatable, macro asset class, supported by institutional liquidity rather than retail speculation in the early stages.
Crypto projects received large private rounds of funding, and few were structured to trade in a liquid scalable way with retail investors buying late after evaluations had already risen sharply retail investor, participation has fallen, and the space now depends more on institutional investors to stabilize flows reduce fall, utility and anchor long-term prices cryptocurrencies still present investing opportunities as they are relatively liquid yet structurally, inefficient, and liquidity remains uneven, resulting in large price fluctuations cryptocurrency prices are now more influenced by broader, economic trends, rather than crypto predictable for you having cycle
The process where the rate of new supply of bitcoin is cut in half and followed by a bull market rally one speaker noted that it could potentially reach $240K over the long-term thus indicating it as a multi year growth play.
JPM also expects that the S&P500 could reach 8,000 in 2026.
Seems the consensus for 2026 is shifting to a bullish environment fueled by a potential change in Fed Chair and looser conditions.
As of 12:51 pm ET Bitcoin is surging past $89,000 and Ethereum is now trading at $3,000.
Remains to be seen if this is just a bounce or if the bears are about to get caught offsides but with rate cut odds for December increasing and Trump pointing to a new Fed Chair (Kevin Hassett in the running) things might be looking up.
Worth mentioning for the bulls here, Hassett is the only Fed Chair candidate in history that has direct experience with the crypto industry.
A Hassett nomination would signal a shift toward a more pro-growth, pro-innovation posture at exactly the moment liquidity is trying to re-enter the system. It would also send a quiet but powerful message to the digital-asset world that the regulatory winter has thawed and is going to heat up.
None of this guarantees a sustained rally but it does mean the macro backdrop is starting to tilt in a direction that would improve sentiment for crypto even more.
My Bitcoin/Ethereum buys are now looking solid as we bounce off the lows, December is going to hopefully give us some valuable color on if the momentum will translate to memes and alts in the new year.
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Here is the link to grab one - this is the XRP one but you can navigate to grab another if you’d like and you can allocate your rewards towards whatever asset you want. I am earning PEPE right now because of course it is the meme that never dies.
More crypto next week.
Geopolitics & Global News
Diplomacy around the Russia–Ukraine war ramped up again this week, with U.S. and European officials scrambling to revise a proposed peace framework after the first draft was blasted as far too generous to Moscow.
The updated plan, now a narrower, stripped-down set of terms, has been quietly floated to both Kyiv and the Kremlin to gauge whether either side is willing to move. Ukraine is signaling openness to “discuss,” but not to abandon red lines on sovereignty or security guarantees.
Russia, meanwhile, is playing it cool in public and insisting it’s “premature” to talk about a deal even as it entertains backchannel discussions.
A senior Kremlin official confirmed Wednesday that U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff is set to visit Moscow next week as efforts pick up speed to find a consensus on ending the nearly four-year war between Russia and Ukraine (PBS).
On the ground, the war hasn’t slowed at all. In the last 24 hours, Russian forces have unleashed a wave of attacks including hundreds of artillery rounds, along with sustained drone and air-strikes concentrated in Zaporizhzhia and across the southern front, pushing Ukrainian units to pull back from several positions.
Brazil’s Bolsonaro is set to serve a 27-year sentence
Georgia prosecutors have dropped the election interference case against Trump and his political allies
The FBI is now scheduling interviews with the 6 Democrat lawmakers who encouraged military members to refuse “illegal orders” in their controversial video 2 weeks ago. Interestingly enough billboards are popping up in several states including North Carolina, where one was seen that read “Did you go airborne just to pull security for ice” with the slogan #notwhatIsignedupfor and a weblink to click that moved users to an encrypted channel. If you had any doubts all of this is aimed at sparking true rebellion from within the ranks of the US military let that misconception be put to bed now
At least 36 people were killed with 279 missing after a fire ripped through apartment buildings in Hong Kong, official say (BNONews)
Rumors emerged this week that Trump might be weighing the replacement of FBI Director Kash Patel
A new pill that makes dogs live longer is set to be released next year
Israel carried out a major strike in Beirut this week that killed Hezbollah’s military chief of staff, the most senior commander they’ve eliminated in years
Chicago Crime
The murder of Iryna Zarutska in Charlotte wasn’t enough so it had to be topped recently with another insane story from Chicago.
A horrifying story out of Chicago erupted this week and has now gone national.
A 26-year-old woman named Bethany MaGee was riding the CTA Blue Line when she was doused in gasoline and set on fire.
The suspect, a repeat offender with a long history of arrests (over 72+ yes that’s not a typo) who was already out on monitoring, bought the gasoline minutes beforehand, walked onto the train, and ignited her as passengers fled in panic.
She’s now in critical condition with life-threatening burns, and the case has triggered a wave of outrage over public safety failures, violent repeat offenders cycling back onto the streets, and the broader sense of disorder in America’s big cities.
This comes after the other incident in New York in 2024 when a woman was burned to death, fully engulfed in flames, while sleeping on a NYC Subway on F Train in Coney Island.
The state of crime in the US is at a tipping point. Anarcho tyranny is the status quo and the examples of these types of events are too many to count. It’s all intentional by the way, designed so that you feel helpless. Designed so that, god forbid you are able to step in or try to prevent it, YOU are charged. Not the felons and criminals they have arrested 50+ times over.
That’s it for today guys, Holiday Gift Guide drops Friday morning. Enjoy your Thanksgiving and make sure to stay tuned on the Discord and X account for intra day updates on stock picks, prediction markets, crypto, and more.
Take care
Andy
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Disclaimer - I am a former trader, enterprise sales rep, and current entrepreneur with a monkey brain. Nothing I say should be considered formal financial advice or life advice, these are my opinions - always do your own research and diligence before
Happy Thanksgiving!
Burry is likely either way too early or entirely wrong. If we move into more inference workloads and ASI, then the book continues for much longer, like another decade straight.
I think he forgets the Big Beautiful Bill actually allows companies, like a hyperscalers to immediately depreciate compute infrastructure in year 1 permanently and every time. So he's looking in the right areas.
If demand is stratospheric because of double ordering just to get ahead then we could have a lapse in orders. I think if be really belived that, we would have been even bolder with his put order. But once again, this is Burry's second attempt at Nvidia puts, he already closed Q1 puts in Q2.
I also don't think he considers how much the political climate has been a complete tailwind for AI infrastructure and that all capacity will be produced, and snapped up all in 2026, probably through parts of 2027 as well. His puts expire in December 2027, which means he could be right just trying to push it down right now because he's fighting theta.