Buckle Up This Week
543: From Iran to AI: The New Market Regime
Good morning lords. Hope everyone had a solid weekend.
It’s Monday, the weather is drastically improving. I am sure most of us would rather be somewhere else besides the office or online.
But there’s still developments to stay on top of, alpha to be found, and markets open in a little over an hour. So we have to lock in for our future grandchildren’s sake.
There are sales to close. Deals to manifest. Reps in the gym to crush. Situations to monitor and a new week to conquer.
Quick reminder the spring deal sled deal is live through midnight this evening on Jay Butler. 15% off the entire site. A bunch of you have already taken advantage to cop some new sleds for the warmer months.
Cop a Pair Here and get ready for the tropics, the Hamptons, or wherever you are going to frequent this spring and summer.
And remember, it’s always better to rock them veiny style (no socks). Women can sense your business aura and deal closing abilities when you walk up looking like you could simultaneously vacation in St Tropez AND close illicit weapons deals with a sketchy European Bank.
Let’s get into it today.
“Spring is the time of plans and projects.”
― Leo Tolstoy
Markets & Equities
After a bullish week last week across the board, we got yet another TACO reversal.
Various outlets and sources reported sometime this weekend that Iran has rejected taking part in the second round of talks with the United States, this came after a planned new series of negotiations with US VP JD Vance in Pakistan.
Futures did not like this news collapsing alongside crypto, which shed some of the gains it had accumulated late last week.
Then things go kinetic in the Arabian Sea.
The guided-missile destroyer USS Spruance (DDG 111) intercepted the Iranian vessel “Touska”
The DOW Rapid Response account (Department of War) announced on X:
After Touska’s crew failed to comply with repeated warnings over a six-hour period, Spruance directed the vessel to evacuate its engine room. Spruance disabled Touska’s propulsion by firing several rounds from the destroyer’s 5-inch MK 45 Gun into Touska’s engine room. U.S. Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit later boarded the non-compliant vessel, which remains in U.S. custody.
So things continue to escalate. New headlines jerk markets around every hour.
We’ve seen this dance again and again.
Zerohedge is even reporting talks are now back on the table AGAIN as of 8:30am.
Even with the non stop fuckery, there’s some interesting signs continuing to emerge. Rate cut odds in 2026 are sneaking up with the upcoming transition to Trump’s Kevin Warsh.
On Polymarket odds sit at about 21% that Warsh ends up cutting at the first Fed meeting of 2026. That’s a non trivial number for sure. It is not consensus obviously (yet), but it is enough to show the market is starting to price in a policy pivot risk earlier than expected. It likely reflects growing sensitivity to slowing growth, tighter financial conditions, or something breaking under the surface.
If those odds start climbing, it’s a signal the market is shifting from “higher for longer” toward “something’s about to force the Fed’s hand.”
This morning we will look to see what markets make of the latest reversal in deal progress with Iran. I have a strong feeling we get more chop followed by green.
You can only FUD so many times with the same story.
Anyways, many of the picks we’ve highlighted in paid posts soared last week:
MSFT AVGO PLTR AMD QUIK AMZN to name a few.
Will the Nasdaq 100s 13-day winning streak come to an end today? If it does you will get yet another opportunity to scoop up some solid names (especially Mag7) before the inevitable reversal.
I added a position in VOLT 0.00%↑ last week, which invests in companies enabling the electrification of the economy (AI data centers). It is a long term position I will just continue to add to monthly. I haven’t had a chance to look at any names that might be flying under the radar in this space yet.
We will go much deeper on new picks tomorrow.
If you missed the Guide I posted on making money online in 2026, check it out HERE. Pair that with the post tomorrow and you will be well situated going into the summer.
Market Headlines
Singapore urged banks to “plug their cybersecurity holes” in preparation for Claude Mythos this past week (Polymarket)
Peter Mill, the global head of commodities technology strategy and head of markets technology for EMEA at Macquarie, is joining Balyasny Asset Management as head of commodities technology (efinancialcareers)
MRVL 0.00%↑ hit $150 after reports GOOG 0.00%↑ is working with them on custom AI silicon for inference
RAVE cryptocurrency fell 98% to $0.5, erasing $6.7 billion from its market cap in two days (WatcherGuru). Crime season in full swing.
Barchart noted this morning that the Shiller PE Ratio hit the 2nd highest level of all-time, only slightly behind the Dot Com Bubble. The Shiller PE Ratio measures
Charles Schwab and Citadel Securities are reportedly starting to look at prediction markets (Cointelegraph)
JPMorgan said recently it sees little stock upside left in Europe this year (Bloomberg/Unusual Whales)
Digital asset investment products saw $1.4B in inflows last week, marking the strongest weekly total since January (Cointelegraph)
Michael Saylor announced Strategy has acquired ANOTHER 34,164 BTC for ~$2.54 billion at ~$74,395 per bitcoin and has achieved BTC Yield of 9.5% YTD 2026. The sheer conviction is wild to see
USA Rare Earth Inc agreed to acquire Brazil’s Serra Verde Group in a $2.8B deal
Polymarket is talking to investors to raise $400 million in new funding at a $15 billion valuation The Information reported this morning (The Block)
Global News
Palantir PLTR 0.00%↑ dropped a pretty viral thread over the weekend in which they expand on some of the core concepts covered in Alex Karp’s Technological Republic. If you haven’t read it yet, highly suggest getting it.
The thread lays out a worldview often associated with Palantir leadership, basically a call for a “Technological Republic” where Silicon Valley, government, and national defense are tightly aligned.
The idea that Silicon Valley has a duty to the state
Tech elites didn’t rise in some sort of vacuum, they benefited from U.S. institutions and should actively contribute to national defense and security, especially through software and AI. Anduril’s Palmer Luckey talks about this concepts in various interviews.
Hard power over soft power ( that is now powered by software)
Moral arguments alone don’t win conflicts anymore. The next era of global dominance will be driven by AI, software, and defense tech, not just classic diplomacy (which seems to be failing fantastically in the Middle East right now).
AI warfare is inevitable
The debate isn’t whether AI weapons are going to get built, it’s who builds them first and controls them. Our adversaries aren’t hesitating.
There are a few big cultural critiques of modern America. The thread criticizes:
Consumer tech stagnation (“tyranny of apps”)
Political over psychologizing
Elites prioritizing comfort over responsibility
Declining standards in governance and public service
Call for shared national responsibility
Ideas like universal national service and broader participation in defense reflect a push against a detached, all volunteer system. This is one of the more aggressive postures lol. Mandatory service.
Reindustrialization and a building mindset
There’s strong support for people like Elon Musk and for ambitious, large-scale building, especially where markets have failed ( things like defense, infrastructure, crime prevention).
A shift to a new deterrence era
We’re quickly moving from nuclear deterrence into AI/software-driven deterrence, which will define future geopolitics. We are bringing terminator type predicaments entirely on our own heads.
Pro American but also self-aware
The U.S. is framed as uniquely powerful and opportunity-rich, but currently at risk of decadence, complacency, and internal decay. You will note these are also big themes in Neil Howe and Ray Dalio’s “Fourth Turning” “cycle” theories. Good times weak men etc.
These all seem pretty solid to me if I’m being honest and pair well with the changing nature of the world in 2026.
However, critics of this book and of this type of thinking highlight the risk of what they call “techno-fascism” or concentrated abuses of power which is essentially a world where a small group of engineers, contractors, and government actors control surveillance, defense systems, and decision-making infrastructure with limited oversight (you could make the argument that this is already happening).
If you can’t beat em (and you can beat PLTR FYI) you have to join em.
Bullish into the foreseeable future.
Global Headlines
Two U.S. Army soldiers from the 11th Airborne Division were reportedly injured in a brown bear attack during land navigation training this weekend
A french ship was damaged recently by warning shots in the Strait of Hormuz
A major fire breaks out at Russia's Tuapse Oil Refinery following Ukrainian drone attack
A bomb threat was reported on United Airlines flight 2408 Enroute to Washington D.C. from Denver (InsiderWire)
Tick bites are sending Americans to the ER at highest rate in nearly a decade according to the CDC
In this insane video below shared by Artemis II Astronaut Reid Wiseman, you can see the Earth setting behind the Moon on the recent voyage (filmed on an Iphone).
Wiseman said on X:
Like watching sunset at the beach from the most foreign seat in the cosmos, I couldn’t resist a cell phone video of Earthset. I could barely see the Moon through the docking hatch window but the iPhone was the perfect size to catch the view…this is uncropped, uncut with 8x zoom which is quite comparable to the view of the human eye. Enjoy.
As some pointed out online, might be the wildest iphone video every recorded.
That’s it for this morning guys.
Because I have some longer travel coming up in the next 10 days or so I want to provide a larger guide for paid subs tomorrow morning. A complete comprehensive update on asset classes, stock picks, and my thoughts about how you need to be positioned for the rest of the 2026.
I will shoot to have that out on the earlier side tomorrow morning so you guys can get into it before markets open (think ~7:45am ET).
We will be on the Discord and on X the rest of today monitoring market open.
Godspeed.
Andy
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Disclaimer - I am a monkey brained former salesman and trader who enjoys writing about crypto, markets, and global events. None of this is to be considered formal financial advice. Always invest in accordance with your own personal risk tolerance and thresholds in mind. God speed.